What each major release is, who publishes it, when it comes out in GMT and your local time, and how markets usually react. Read this before trading the news and you will understand why prices move so fast.
Last updated: 7 Oct 2026
US release times in GMT shift with US daylight saving time: from about March to early November, an 8:30 New York release is at 12:30 GMT; after daylight saving ends (1 Nov 2026) it moves to 13:30 GMT. The card above shows them in your local time.
Key US economic releases at a glance
Times in GMT: US daylight saving time (Mar – early Nov) / US winter time · tap a release for details
What each release is, who publishes it, when it comes out in GMT and how the dollar and gold usually react
What is NFP? · Nonfarm Payrolls
NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) is the US non-farm employment figure. It shows how many jobs were added or lost in the previous month. It is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), usually on the first Friday of the month at 12:30 GMT (13:30 GMT in US winter time), together with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.
🇺🇸 BLS, US Department of LaborMonthly · usually the first Friday12:30 / 13:30 GMTHIGH
NFP is one of the most volatile releases of the month, because the Fed weighs the labour market when it sets interest rates.
Better than expected (strong hiring, faster wage growth) → the dollar usually rises and gold comes under pressure
Worse than expected → the dollar usually falls and gold tends to find support
What is CPI? · Consumer Price Index (inflation)
CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the inflation measure that tracks changes in the prices US households pay for goods and services. The BLS publishes it every month around mid-month at 12:30 GMT (13:30 GMT in US winter time).
🇺🇸 BLSMonthly · mid-month12:30 / 13:30 GMTHIGH
Markets watch both headline CPI and Core CPI, which strips out food and energy and gives a clearer read on underlying inflation.
Inflation above forecast → higher odds the Fed hikes or keeps rates high; the dollar usually rises
Below forecast → the dollar usually falls and gold tends to find support
What is Core PCE? · The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
Core PCE is the US personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy. The Fed’s 2% inflation target is set in terms of PCE, and it uses Core PCE to track underlying inflation. The BEA publishes it near the end of the month at 12:30 GMT (13:30 GMT in US winter time).
🇺🇸 BEA, US Department of CommerceMonthly · end of month12:30 / 13:30 GMTHIGH
It comes out with personal income and spending. The Fed gives it a lot of weight, although markets can partly predict it from the CPI released earlier.
Above forecast → supports the higher-rates view; the dollar usually rises
Below forecast → the dollar usually falls
What is the FOMC? · The Fed’s rate-setting meeting
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the US Federal Reserve committee that meets 8 times a year to set the federal funds target range. The decision is announced at 14:00 New York time on Wednesday, which is 18:00 GMT (19:00 GMT in US winter time), followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference.
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve8 times a yearWednesday 18:00 / 19:00 GMTHIGH
The press conference starts about 30 minutes after the decision. The March, June, September and December meetings also bring economic projections and the Dot Plot, which shows where each member expects rates to go.
The rate decision itself is usually priced in. What moves prices is the statement and the answers at the press conference about whether rates will keep rising or start falling. See the latest rates in our central bank rates table
Hawkish tone → the dollar usually rises and gold falls
Dovish tone → the dollar usually falls and gold rises
What is UMich? · University of Michigan consumer sentiment
UMich is the US consumer sentiment index, based on the University of Michigan’s survey of how households see their finances and the economy. It comes out twice a month, as a preliminary and a final reading, at 14:00 GMT (15:00 GMT in US winter time).
🇺🇸 University of MichiganPreliminary mid-month · final at month-end14:00 / 15:00 GMTHIGH
The part markets watch most closely is 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, because the Fed uses them to judge whether people expect inflation to stay high.
Inflation expectations rise → supports the dollar
Inflation expectations fall → the dollar usually falls
What is the ISM PMI? · Purchasing Managers’ Index
ISM PMI is the US purchasing managers’ index, based on a survey of purchasing executives by the Institute for Supply Management, with separate manufacturing and services reports. A reading above 50 means business is expanding; below 50 means it is contracting. Released at 14:00 GMT (15:00 GMT in US winter time).
🇺🇸 Institute for Supply ManagementManufacturing: 1st business day · Services: 3rd business day14:00 / 15:00 GMTHIGH
Markets also check the Prices Paid sub-index for signs of inflation pressure.
Better than expected → the dollar usually rises
Worse than expected → the dollar usually falls
What is JOLTS? · Job openings
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) reports US job openings, quits and layoffs. The BLS publishes it early in the month (data for two months earlier) at 14:00 GMT (15:00 GMT in US winter time).
🇺🇸 BLSMonthly · early in the month (data from 2 months earlier)14:00 / 15:00 GMTMED–HIGH
It shows how tight the labour market is. It usually comes out a few days before NFP, so traders use it as an early signal.
What is GDP? · Gross Domestic Product
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total value of goods and services the US produces in a quarter, and the main measure of economic growth. The BEA publishes three estimates per quarter (Advance, Second, Third); the first comes out around the end of the month after the quarter ends, at 12:30 GMT (13:30 GMT in US winter time).
🇺🇸 BEA, US Department of CommerceQuarterly · 3 estimates12:30 / 13:30 GMTHIGH
Markets give the most weight to the first (Advance) estimate. The headline is quarter-on-quarter growth, annualized.
Growth above forecast → the dollar usually rises
Growth below forecast or negative → the dollar usually falls and gold tends to find support
What are Retail Sales?
Retail Sales measure monthly sales at US retailers and restaurants. They reflect consumer spending, the largest part of the US economy. The Census Bureau publishes them around mid-month at 12:30 GMT (13:30 GMT in US winter time).
🇺🇸 Census BureauMonthly · mid-month12:30 / 13:30 GMTHIGH
Besides the headline, markets watch the Control Group (excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and restaurants), because it feeds directly into GDP.
Better than expected → the dollar usually rises
Worse than expected → the dollar usually falls
What are Jobless Claims? · Unemployment claims
Initial Jobless Claims count the people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the US each week. The US Department of Labor (DOL) publishes them every Thursday at 12:30 GMT (13:30 GMT in US winter time).
🇺🇸 DOL, US Department of LaborWeekly · every Thursday12:30 / 13:30 GMTMEDIUM
Weekly numbers are noisy, so markets also watch the 4-week average. It is the earliest labour market signal before NFP.
Fewer claims than expected → a strong labour market; the dollar usually rises
More than expected → the dollar usually falls and gold tends to find support
Other central banks to know
Central bank
Meetings
Decision time (GMT)
Moves
🇪🇺 ECB
8 times a year
12:15 (European summer) / 13:15 · press conference 30 min later
EUR/USD
🇯🇵 BoJ
8 times a year
No fixed time, usually around midday Tokyo time (about 03:00)
% = maximum share of the IB commission returned · gold rebate per lot (HFM Premium account) · trading carries high risk · 1TRADER is an introducing broker (IB) partner of these brokers · rates as of Sep 2026 and may change with broker terms
FAQ
Which economic releases move gold the most?
The releases that move gold most are the FOMC, CPI and NFP, because they directly change expectations for Fed rates. Gold is priced in dollars and pays no interest, so when markets expect higher rates or a stronger dollar, gold usually comes under pressure, and the opposite happens when rate cuts are expected.
What time are US releases in GMT?
Releases at 8:30 New York time (NFP, CPI, PCE, GDP, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims) are at 12:30 GMT during US daylight saving time (March to early November) and 13:30 GMT in US winter time. 10:00 releases (ISM, UMich, JOLTS) are at 14:00 / 15:00 GMT, and the FOMC decision at 14:00 New York time is at 18:00 / 19:00 GMT on Wednesday. The card at the top of this page converts them to your local time.
What do Actual, Forecast and Previous mean in an economic calendar?
Actual is the released figure, Forecast is what analysts expected, and Previous is the prior figure (sometimes revised). Prices usually move on the gap between Actual and Forecast rather than on the number itself; if it comes in as expected, the market may barely move.
Should I open a trade right at the release?
Around major releases spreads widen sharply, prices can gap, and a stop loss may be filled at a worse price than set (slippage). Beginners should wait for prices to settle after the release or trade smaller, and check which releases are due in an economic calendar before trading each day.
Where can I see upcoming releases in advance?
Use an economic calendar. It lists each release’s date and time, importance, forecast and previous value, and you can usually set it to your own time zone.
Prepared and fact-checked by the 1TRADER team · updated
Quick summary
The releases that move prices most are NFP, CPI and the FOMC, because they directly change expectations for Fed rates
8:30 New York releases are at 12:30 GMT during US daylight saving time and 13:30 GMT from 1 Nov 2026
Prices move on the gap between the actual figure and the forecast, not on whether the number is high or low
Better-than-expected US data usually lifts the dollar and weighs on gold, but not every time
Note The two previous months are revised every time, and some months the revisions move prices more than the latest figure. Check the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings as well.
Note Markets often focus on month-on-month Core CPI more than the year-on-year figure, because it shows the latest inflation trend more clearly.
Note CPI and PPI come out before PCE, so analysts can forecast Core PCE fairly accurately. If it matches the forecast, prices usually move less than on CPI day.
Note Beyond the rate decision, markets watch the statement and the Fed Chair’s press conference, which starts about 30 minutes later. Prices can reverse during the press conference. The March, June, September and December meetings also include economic projections and the Dot Plot.
Note There are two readings a month: preliminary around mid-month and final near month-end. Markets also watch the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations in the report.
Note50 is the line between expansion and contraction. Manufacturing comes out on the first business day of the month and services on the third. The Prices sub-index helps gauge inflation pressure.
Note JOLTS lags NFP by one month; for example, the report released in early October covers August. Markets also watch the quits rate.
Note The first (Advance) estimate moves markets the most. The GDP report also includes the quarterly PCE price index, which markets use as another inflation check.
Note Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. If prices rise, sales can look strong even when people are not buying more.
Note Weeks with holidays or seasonal adjustment issues swing more than usual, so check the 4-week average before drawing conclusions.
Article
How to trade economic news: before, during and after the release
Prepared and fact-checked by the 1TRADER team · updated
Knowing what each release is isn’t enough. Traders also need to know what to do before the release, when the number comes out and afterwards, because around a major release prices can move more in a few seconds than in a normal day.
This section sums up what to do at each stage, with the monthly US release cycle in GMT. Use it alongside an economic calendar to check each release’s date and forecast.
Before the releaseCheck the calendar, the forecast and your position size
Check which releases are due today, what time they come out and what the forecast is. If you have open positions, make sure your stop loss can survive the swings around the release, or reduce your position first. Size each trade from the amount you are willing to lose.
Note Before a big release, prices often trade in a narrow range, and spreads start widening a few minutes before the release time.
At the releaseCompare the actual figure with the forecast
When the number is out, compare Actual with Forecast first, then look at the details: for NFP, also check unemployment and wages. Prices can jump past your levels, and a stop loss may be filled at a worse price than set (slippage).
Note Some days several releases come out at the same time, such as Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT. Markets read them together, so prices may not follow any single release.
After the releaseWait for prices to settle before deciding
The first move after a release isn’t always the final one. Prices can surge and then reverse within minutes. Beginners should wait for spreads to return to normal and for a clear direction before acting, then read how analysts interpret the figures.
Note FOMC days have two moments: the decision (18:00 GMT during US daylight time) and the Fed Chair’s press conference about 30 minutes later. Prices are often volatile at both.
Checklist before trading the news Run through it on every day with a major release
Open an economic calendar and check today’s high-impact releases and their times
Note the forecast and previous figure for each upcoming release
Review open positions and adjust size or stop loss to handle the swings
Allow for wide spreads and slippage in the first few minutes after the release
After the release, wait for prices to settle and read the analysis before opening new trades
Bottom line
US economic releases, especially NFP, CPI and the FOMC, are the most volatile moments of the month for forex and gold. Plan before the release, compare the actual figure with the forecast when it comes out, and wait for prices to settle afterwards to reduce the risk from price gaps and wide spreads. Trading carries high risk.
