The US Federal Reserve announces its FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday 28 Oct. CME FedWatch prices about a 91% chance of a hold at 3.75–4.00%, so the focus is on the statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, and whether they open the door to a December hike.
Published Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 01:10 GMT · The actual result will be added to this page around 18:40 GMT (Wed 28 Oct)
FOMC decision · Oct 2026
Due Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 18:00 GMT
Quick summary
- 1A Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold at 3.75–4.00%, and all 100 expect a hike in December.
- 2CME FedWatch prices about a 91% chance of a hold today but about an 83% chance of a hike by December, so markets want to hear whether the Fed confirms that path.
- 3This meeting has no Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), so markets will focus on the statement and the 18:30 GMT press conference, including how many members vote for a hike.
If the outcome is hawkish / dovish
A clear signal of a December hike, or several dissents in favour of a hike
The dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields would typically find support, and spot gold (XAUUSD) could be pushed back to test $4,000.
Avoids guidance or puts more weight on labour market risks
The dollar could ease from its two-week high, yields could dip, and gold could extend gains from the $4,050 area.
What this event is and why markets care
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the Fed’s monetary policy committee. It meets eight times a year to set the target range for the fed funds rate. The decision is released at 14:00 New York time (18:00 GMT during US daylight saving time), followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference 30 minutes later. Read our FOMC guide →
The Fed raised rates by 0.25% at its September meeting, with inflation still above its 2% target (September CPI 3.7% y/y), but September payrolls were very weak (NFP 29K). This meeting is therefore a balancing act between inflation and the labour market. See other central banks’ rates in our central bank rates table
Timeline
- Fed hikes by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, vote 12–0
- September NFP at 29K vs 90K expected; unemployment rate 4.2%
- Two-day FOMC meeting (US time)
- 1TRADER publishes this preview
- Fed announces its rate decision and statement
- Fed Chair press conference
- Actual result added to this page
Dollar set to swing on the Fed decision: get cash back on every lot
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