The dollar index (DXY) rose for a third day to 102.40, a two-week high, while spot gold (XAUUSD) bounced back above $4,050 as oil prices eased. Today brings a run of central bank decisions: the Bank of Canada at 13:45 GMT and the Fed at 18:00 GMT, where markets expect rates to stay on hold.
Updated Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 01:15 GMT · Prices as of the New York close on Tue 27 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1The dollar index (DXY) rose about 0.3% to close near 102.40, its highest since 14 Oct. EUR/USD slipped to around 1.1129, near its lowest since April 2025, on French fiscal worries.
- 2Spot gold recovered about 1% to around $4,055 after an intraday low of $3,987, as oil eased on news of Middle East talks.
- 3US Conference Board consumer confidence for October rose to 91.7 from 84.2, well above the roughly 80.4 expected.
- 4Today watch the Bank of Canada at 13:45 GMT and the Fed decision at 18:00 GMT
Today’s events · Wed 28 Oct 2026
- Australia CPI (Sep)Forecast 4.2% y/y · Previous 4.0%MED
- RBNZ rate decision (New Zealand)Forecast hike to 3.00% · Current 2.75%MED
- US advance goods trade balance (Sep)Forecast −$129.0B · Previous −$132.1BLOW
- BoC rate decision (Canada)Reuters poll: 19 of 34 expect a hike to 2.50% · Current 2.25%MED
- Fed rate decision (FOMC)Forecast hold at 3.75–4.00% · Previous 3.75–4.00%Wednesday 18:00 GMT · watch for signals of a December hikeRead the preview →Due 18:00 GMTHIGH
- Fed Chair press conference30 minutes after the decisionMED
Market overview
Approximate prices from Trading Economics early Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Asian session, after the New York close on Tue 27 Oct), cross-checked with Reuters in early Asian trade (DXY 102.40 · EUR/USD 1.1129 · GBP/USD 1.3307 · USD/JPY 158.03 · AUD/USD 0.7031) · ▲▼ change vs 1 week ago
Dollar up three days in a row, gold rebounds above $4,050 before the Fed
On Tuesday (27 Oct) the dollar index (DXY) rose about 0.3% to around 102.40, its third straight gain and highest since 14 Oct, according to Reuters, helped by steadier tech stocks. The euro weakened to around 1.1129, near its lowest since April 2025, on concerns over French public finances and the French bond market. On the data front, the Conference Board said US consumer confidence rose to 91.7 in October from 84.2, beating expectations, although 12-month inflation expectations stayed high at 5.8%.
Spot gold (XAUUSD) fell to a low of around $3,987 before recovering about 1% to around $4,055 in the New York afternoon, while December gold futures settled 0.9% higher at $4,074.60, according to Reuters. The main support came from oil, which fell more than 1% on news of Middle East peace talks, easing inflation worries. The US 10-year yield held around 5.00%. Markets price about a 91% chance that the Fed holds interest rates today, but about an 83% chance of a hike by December, according to CME FedWatch.
“Softer oil prices ease inflation worries and reduce the pressure on the Fed to stay tight, which is good for gold, while the market is still trading mainly on Middle East headlines.”
Peter Grant, Zaner Metals · 27 Oct (paraphrased from Reuters)
Asset by asset
Gold rebounds from $3,987 to above $4,050 ahead of the Fed
Gold is back above $4,000 after dipping to $3,987 intraday, helped by lower oil. But the 10-year yield near 5.00% and the roughly 83% odds of a December Fed hike still weigh. A Reuters poll also found analysts cut their 2026 gold forecasts for a second straight quarter. See the latest gold analysis →
Euro weak near 1.113 ahead of the ECB tomorrow
The euro has lost about 1.5% against the dollar in October, the most among the major currencies, on high energy costs and volatility in French bonds. The ECB announces its decision on Thursday at 13:15 GMT and is expected to keep the deposit rate at 2.50%. If the Fed sounds hawkish today, the euro could be pushed down to test 1.1100.
Yen steady near 158 ahead of the Fed and Friday’s BoJ
USD/JPY is around 157.85–158.03 in early Asian trade, after the yen gained about 0.75% last week on safe-haven demand as AI stocks swung. This week the pair faces both the Fed today and the BoJ on Friday (expected to hold at 1.25%), so it could see two big swings.
What to watch today
At 13:45 GMT the Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its decision, with most economists in a Reuters poll expecting a hike to 2.50%. The main event is the Fed decision at 18:00 GMT, followed by the press conference at 18:30 GMT. Markets expect a hold at 3.75–4.00%, so the focus is on any guidance about a December hike. See every central bank’s rate in our central bank rates table
- ECB decision (deposit rate expected to hold at 2.50%)Thu 13:15
- US Q3 GDP and personal income/spendingThu 12:30
- BoJ decision (expected to hold at 1.25%)Fri ~05:00
- Eurozone Q3 GDPFri 10:00
Our view
Markets have already priced in that the Fed is likely to hold rates today, so what moves prices will be the tone on December. The dollar’s three-day rise shows markets already lean hawkish; if the Fed does not clearly confirm a hike, the dollar could pull back. Gold remains in a $4,000–4,100 range and is sensitive to both oil headlines and yields.
- 1Wait for the result before taking big positionsBetween 18:00 and 19:30 GMT spreads may widen and prices may swing both ways. Reduce position size and set a stop-loss on every order.
- 2$4,000 is the key level for goldA break below yesterday’s $3,987 low would turn the short-term picture bearish again.
- 3Central banks all weekThe BoC today, the ECB on Thursday and the BoJ on Friday mean the major pairs could stay volatile.
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Sources (10)
- Federal Reserve – FOMC Calendars
- Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Oct (27 Oct)
- Reuters via Investing.com – Dollar ahead of the Fed (28 Oct)
- Reuters via MarketScreener – Gold ahead of the Fed (27 Oct)
- Newsquawk – Fed Preview
- Reuters poll via 93.3 The Drive – BoC
- Newsquawk – RBNZ Preview
- TD Economics – Calendar and forecasts 27–30 Oct
- investingLive – Australia CPI Sep
- Trading Economics – Currencies / Commodities / DXY / EUR
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