The dollar index (DXY) recovered to around 102, snapping a two-week losing streak, while spot gold (XAUUSD) bounced from a two-month low to reclaim $4,000 as oil eased on hopes of calmer Middle East tensions. The Fed starts its two-day meeting today, with the decision due Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Today markets watch US durable goods at 12:30 GMT and Conference Board consumer confidence at 14:00 GMT.
Updated Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 01:10 GMT · Prices as of the New York close on Mon 26 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1DXY closed near 102.02, up 0.2%. The dollar rose against all seven majors, especially the euro, pound and yen.
- 2Gold closed near $4,013, up 0.4%, after touching around $3,975, a two-month low. The 10-year yield eased to around 4.98%.
- 3WTI fell 1.7% to around $103 after Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish delegations visited Tehran, easing inflation worries.
- 4The Fed meets on 27–28 Oct. Markets see about a 90% chance of a hold at 3.75–4.00%, but price the odds of a hike by year-end at about 82%, according to CME FedWatch.
Today’s events · Tue 27 Oct 2026
- Japan services producer price index (Sep)Mon 26 Oct · Forecast 3.7% y/y · Previous 3.7%LOW
- Eurozone M3 money supply (Sep)Forecast 3.6% y/y · Previous 3.5%LOW
- US durable goods orders (Sep)Forecast about +1.5% m/m · Previous 0.0%Ex-transportation forecast +0.5–0.6% · Previous +0.3%MED
- FHFA house price index (Aug)Previous +0.3% m/mLOW
- Conference Board consumer confidence (Oct)Forecast 80.5–81 · Previous 81.9Previous reading was a multi-year low; watch consumer inflation expectationsMED
- US new home sales (Sep)Forecast about 650K · Previous 684KLOW
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Monday 26 Oct 2026 (New York) from Babypips, cross-checked with Trading Economics · % daily change
Dollar recovers to 102, oil eases and gold rebounds above $4,000 ahead of the Fed
On Monday (26 Oct) the dollar index (DXY) rose about 0.2% to close near 102.02, snapping a two-week losing streak and gaining against all seven majors as investors positioned for a week packed with the Fed meeting and key data. WTI fell about 1.7% to around $103 after Tehran hosted delegations from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, easing supply and inflation worries, although Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia remain a risk. The S&P 500 rose about 0.7%, led by AI stocks.
Data came in mostly better than expected: Germany’s Ifo index rose to 90.2 (forecast 89.5) and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index to 13.4 (forecast 7.0), while Moody’s affirmed France at Aa3. The US 10-year Treasury yield edged down to around 4.98%, helping gold rebound above $4,000. The Fed starts its two-day meeting today; markets expect it to hold its policy interest rate at 3.75–4.00%, but CME FedWatch still puts the odds of at least one hike by year-end at about 82%, so signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference matter more than the decision itself.
“The $4,000 level is a key test of gold’s long-term bullish view.”
TD Securities, cited by FXStreet · 26 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold bounces from a two-month low to reclaim $4,000
Gold dipped to around $3,975, a two-month low, before rebounding to close near $4,013, up about 0.4%, and is still near $4,010 in Asian trading this morning. FXStreet says support came from softer oil and lower yields, and CTA short-covering could kick in above $4,092. The next resistance is $4,100, then the 100-day moving average near $4,221. Latest gold analysis →
Euro slips to 1.1181 despite a strong Ifo
The euro (EUR/USD) fell about 0.2% to around 1.1181 as the dollar firmed. Germany’s Ifo beat expectations and Moody’s affirmed France’s rating, but the flash eurozone composite PMI for October, which fell to 51.9 from 53.1, still weighs. The ECB decides on Thursday, with markets expecting the deposit rate to stay at 2.25%.
Yen weakens again as USD/JPY climbs to 157.52
USD/JPY rose about 0.4% to close near 157.52, with the yen among the weakest currencies against the dollar. Markets await the BoJ decision on Friday 30 Oct, and comments from Japanese officials could trigger sharp swings. The next resistance is near 157.80 and 159.02, with support near 156.53.
What to watch tonight
There is no high-impact data today. The numbers to watch are US durable goods orders for September at 12:30 GMT and Conference Board consumer confidence at 14:00 GMT, which last came in at 81.9, a multi-year low. ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak around 17:00 GMT, and China’s Communist Party begins its Fifth Plenum today. The Fed decision is due Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Track the latest policy rates on our central bank rates page
- Fed decision + Warsh press conferenceWed 18:00
- US Q3 GDP + PCE (Sep)Thu 12:30
- ECB decisionThu 13:15
- BoJ decisionFri 30 Oct
Our view
Markets enter central bank week with a recovering dollar and softer oil. The Fed is very likely to hold, so direction will come from its signals on a December hike. Gold’s rebound above $4,000 is still fragile: if the Fed sounds hawkish or oil climbs again, the price could break below this level once more.
- 1$4,000 is the dividing lineHolding it opens a test of $4,092–4,100; a break lower targets support near $3,975.
- 2Watch oil alongsideMiddle East headlines still feed directly into inflation, yields and the dollar.
- 3Be careful mid-weekWednesday to Friday brings the Fed, ECB, PCE and BoJ. Trade smaller and set a stop-loss on every order.
Dollar recovers before the Fed, gold swings at $4,000: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (10)
- Federal Reserve – FOMC Calendar 2026
- US Census – Advance Durable Goods
- Conference Board – Consumer Confidence
- Babypips – Market Recap 26 Oct
- Trading Economics – US Dollar (26 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold / FedWatch (26 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold / 10-year yield (26 Oct)
- RoboForex – EUR/USD, USD/JPY support and resistance (26–30 Oct)
- IC Markets – ECB / gold / oil (26 Oct)
- ActionForex – Calendar 27 Oct (forecasts)
Risk warning: Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news summary is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
Compiled by the 1TRADER editorial teamFull risk disclosure
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