Monday morning forex briefing: spot gold (XAUUSD) ended the week at $3,994, down about 4.1% and back below $4,000 at its lowest since early August, while Brent crude closed at $116.72, its highest since late April. The Fed, ECB and BoJ all set rates this week, while today brings no high-impact US data.
Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 00:58 GMT · Prices as of the New York close on Fri 23 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1Gold closed Friday at $3,994, down about 4.1% on the week, its worst week in more than four months. It is still hovering near $3,985 this morning.
- 2Brent crude closed at $116.72 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. It eased about 1% to around $115 this morning after Trump said a decision on Iran was approaching.
- 3Markets see about a 90% chance the Fed will hold rates at 3.75–4.00% at the meeting ending Wed 18:00 GMT, but still lean towards a hike in December.
- 4Also this week: the BoC (Wed 13:45 GMT), US GDP and PCE (Thu 12:30 GMT), the ECB (Thu 13:15 GMT) and the BoJ (Fri). Today the main release is Germany’s Ifo index.
Today’s events · Mon 26 Oct 2026
- Germany Ifo business climate (Oct)Previous 89.9 (Sep)Approximate time · Europe switched clocks on 25 OctMED
- RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones on a panelMon 26 Oct, 21:10 GMTNot expected to say much on monetary policyLOW
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Friday 23 Oct 2026 (New York) from Trading Economics, cross-checked with CappNotes and BabyPips · ▲▼ weekly change vs the 16 Oct 2026 close · WTI December contract · This morning, 26 Oct (around 00:45 GMT), gold was near $3,985, WTI near $101.70 and USD/JPY near 157.10, per Trading Economics.
Gold breaks below $4,000, oil climbs as markets enter central bank week
Last week (19–23 Oct) gold fell about 4.1% to close Friday at $3,994 after touching a low near $3,978. The selling came alongside a sell-off in AI tech stocks and a jump in oil after Houthi attacks on airports and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Brent closed at $116.72, its highest since late April, stoking fears that inflation will persist. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed around 5.00%, down about 9bp on the week. The dollar index (DXY) was steady near 101.75, while the euro (EUR/USD) was the weakest major as the French–German yield spread widened to 170bp, the most since 2011.
Over the weekend Trump said a decision was approaching on whether to strike a deal with Iran or resume attacks, and the US reduced staff in parts of the Middle East, according to Bloomberg. This morning Brent eased more than 1% to around $115, Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.6%, and the euro edged higher after Moody’s left France’s credit rating unchanged. In Australia, an RBA assistant governor signalled that more work is needed on inflation, so markets raised bets on an interest rate hike on 3 Nov. Markets opened on Monday without unusual price gaps, with the euro near 1.1226 and USD/JPY near 156.89, according to investingLive.
“The RBA has not yet done enough to contain inflation, despite four rate hikes this year.”
Sarah Hunter, RBA Assistant Governor · 25 Oct (paraphrased via investingLive)
Asset by asset
Gold slips below $4,000 in its worst week in over four months
Gold closed Friday at $3,994, down about 4.1% on the week, and is hovering near $3,985 this morning. High oil prices keep markets expecting the Fed may hike again in December, weighing on gold. UBS expects buyers to support prices around $4,000, while NordFX sees support at $3,975 and $3,900 and resistance at $4,030 and $4,150. Latest gold analysis →
Euro is the weakest major on France worries ahead of Thursday’s ECB
EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1202, down about 0.3% on worries over French politics and bonds. It edged up to around 1.122 this morning after France escaped a Moody’s downgrade. Markets expect the ECB to hold on Thursday at 13:15 GMT (deposit rate 2.50%); the key is its stance on French yields. NordFX sees resistance at 1.1260 and 1.1355 and support at 1.1113, the 2026 low.
Yen regains safe-haven appeal ahead of Friday’s BoJ
USD/JPY ended the week at 156.87, down about 0.7%, after touching around 156.00, a five-week low, as the yen regained safe-haven demand with markets more worried about growth than inflation. It is near 157.10 this morning. The BoJ decides on Friday; markets expect a hold at 1.25% but price about an 80% chance of a December hike, according to Newsquawk. The key is whether the BoJ judges inflation to have reached its 2% target.
What to watch tonight
Today (Mon 26 Oct) has no high-impact US data. The main release is Germany’s Ifo business climate index for October at around 09:00 GMT (previous 89.9). Markets will focus mainly on oil and Iran headlines before the Fed starts its meeting on Tuesday. See rates and meeting dates for every central bank in our central bank rates table
- Australia CPI (Q3)Wed 00:30
- BoC rate decisionWed 13:45
- FOMC rate decisionWed 18:00
- US Q3 GDP and PCE (Sep)Thu 12:30
- ECB rate decisionThu 13:15
- BoJ rate decisionFri ~05:00
Our view
This week, oil is the variable that ties everything together. If oil stays expensive, markets will expect the Fed to hike again in December, which weighs on gold. But if Iran deal headlines push oil lower, gold, after its sharp drop, could see buyers return around $4,000. Wednesday’s Fed decision and Thursday’s PCE will set the direction for the whole week.
- 1Watch oil before goldGold moved clearly opposite to oil last week, so Iran headlines matter as much as the Fed.
- 2$4,000 is the dividing lineIf gold cannot reclaim $4,000, selling could drag it to test $3,975 and $3,900.
- 3A crowded event scheduleThe FOMC lands Wed 18:00 GMT, and PCE and the ECB come less than an hour apart on Thursday. Trade smaller and set a stop-loss on every order.
Gold below $4,000 in central bank week: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (11)
- Federal Reserve – FOMC meeting calendar
- ifo – Business Climate Germany
- Trading Economics – Currencies (26 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Commodities (26 Oct)
- investingLive – Monday open prices, 26 Oct
- investingLive – Asia calendar, 26 Oct
- The Edge / Bloomberg – Morning markets, 26 Oct
- Newsquawk – Week in Focus 26–30 Oct
- NordFX – Forecast 26–30 Oct
- Forex Trading Community – Week ahead 26–30 Oct
- Retail-News – ifo Sep 89.9
Risk warning: Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news summary is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
Compiled by the 1TRADER editorial teamFull risk disclosure
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