Forex news today: the US 10-year Treasury yield jumped about 6bp to close near 5.15%, pushing gold (XAUUSD) below $4,150 to close around $4,140, while the dollar (DXY) climbed back toward 102 as the euro (EUR/USD) weakened on riots in France. There is no high-impact US data today; markets await UK jobs data at 06:00 GMT and US housing starts at 12:30 GMT.
Updated Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 00:36 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Mon 19 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1The US 10-year yield rose about 6bp to close at 5.15%, erasing last week’s safe-haven bond buying, so gold slipped below $4,150 to close near $4,140 (−0.6%)
- 2Cost-of-living riots in France led the government to impose partial curfews in Paris, Lille and Lyon. The CAC 40 closed down 1.11% and the euro weakened to around 1.1213, lifting the dollar (DXY) to around 101.99
- 3Brent closed at $109.55 (−0.3%) after Trump eased some sanctions on Russian energy, but Houthi claims of an attack on a Saudi energy facility kept prices supported
- 4No high-impact US data today. Watch UK jobs data at 06:00 GMT and US housing starts at 12:30 GMT. The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the 27–28 Oct meeting
Today’s events · Tue 20 Oct 2026
- China LPR (Oct)Expected unchanged · 1-year 3.00% · 5-year 3.50%Markets expect a 17th straight month on hold (Reuters)MED
- UK unemployment rate (3 months to Aug)Forecast 4.9–5.0% · Previous 4.9%Along with average weekly earnings, ahead of UK CPI tomorrowMED
- ADP weekly employment (preliminary)Previous 24.75KLOW
- US housing starts / building permits (Sep)Forecast 1.30M · Previous 1.275MBuilding permits forecast 1.40M · Previous 1.403MMED
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Monday 19 October 2026 (New York) vs the Friday 16 Oct close · Currency pairs and DXY from BabyPips, checked against Trading Economics (DXY 101.98, EUR/USD 1.1213, USD/JPY 158.57) · Spot gold from BabyPips, checked against Trading Economics ($4,133–4,137) · WTI December contract $98.54 (the expiring November contract closed at $103.66, +2.2%) from CappNotes · 10-year yield 5.15% from CappNotes, checked against AP (5.14%)
Yields climb back to 5.15%, weighing on gold; euro hit by French riots
On Monday (19 Oct) the US 10-year yield rose about 6bp to close at 5.15% and the 2-year yield rose 3bp to 4.77%, according to CappNotes, erasing last week’s safe-haven bond buying. Part of the move came from selling in French bonds after weekend cost-of-living protests turned into riots and the government imposed partial curfews in Paris, Lille and Lyon. The CAC 40 closed down 1.11% and the euro (EUR/USD) weakened to around 1.1213, lifting the dollar index (DXY) about 0.15% to close near 101.99, while non-yielding gold was pushed down to close around $4,140, and FXStreet reported it slipped to about $4,135 in early Asian trade this morning.
In US stocks, the Nasdaq rose 1.1% as chipmakers recovered on easing worries about AI investment debt, but most stocks fell. The NAHB housing market index dropped to 29, its lowest since June 2012. Oil was volatile: Brent closed at $109.55 (−0.3%) after Trump eased some sanctions on Russian energy, while the Houthis claimed an attack on a Saudi energy facility (not yet confirmed by Saudi authorities). Elsewhere, China’s Q3 GDP grew 4.5% y/y, beating the 4.4% forecast and lifting the Aussie dollar (AUD/USD) to around 0.6981, and Canada’s September CPI came in at 3.1% y/y, below the 3.2% forecast. Markets still see roughly 83–85% odds that the Fed holds rates at its 27–28 Oct meeting, according to CME FedWatch, but price about a 90% chance of a hike by December.
“Japan’s underlying inflation is now very close to the 2% target, and anchoring underlying inflation around 2% is becoming more important.”
Kazuo Ueda, BoJ Governor · 19 Oct (paraphrased from FXStreet / BabyPips)
Asset by asset
Gold slips below $4,150 as yields climb
Gold rose to around $4,188 on Monday morning before being sold down to close near $4,140 (−0.6%), and slipped to about $4,135 this morning. FXStreet notes the price is below the 100-day moving average ($4,240) and the Bollinger middle band ($4,180), so the short-term picture remains negative. The next supports are the 14 Oct low near $4,073 and the lower Bollinger band around $4,050. More market news →
Euro pressured by French riots
EUR/USD fell to around 1.1190 on Monday morning before closing near 1.1213 (−0.2%) on concerns that the French government may need to spend more, straining its budget. RoboForex sees resistance at 1.1265 and 1.1365 and support at 1.1150, while ActionForex flags 1.1111 as key support; a break below would extend the decline.
Yen weakens to around 158.5 on yield spreads
USD/JPY rose about 0.3% to close near 158.54, close to the day’s high, as US yields climbed back, even though Ueda signalled that underlying inflation is near the 2% target. Vantage Markets sees resistance at 158.94 and 159.05 (the post-CPI high on 14 Oct) and support at 157.70 and 157.55. Near 160, markets remain wary of intervention after Finance Minister Katayama warned on 15 Oct that Tokyo is ready to act. The BoJ meets on 30 Oct.
What to watch today
There is no high-impact US data today. At 01:00 GMT China announces its LPR, which markets expect to stay unchanged. At 06:00 GMT comes UK labour market data, including unemployment and average earnings, which matter for the pound (GBP/USD) ahead of UK CPI tomorrow. At 12:30 GMT we get US housing starts and building permits for September, after the NAHB index hit a 14-year low. The Fed remains in its blackout period. See rates and meeting dates for every central bank on our central bank rates page
- UK CPI (Sep)Wed 06:00
- US jobless claimsThu 12:30
- Japan CPI (Sep)Thu 23:30
- US flash PMIs (Oct)Fri 13:45
- UMich final (Oct)Fri 14:00
Our view
With little US data this week and the Fed in blackout, markets are trading on yields, oil and European political risk. The 10-year yield back above 5.1% is the main headwind for gold and the yen, while the euro faces extra risk from the situation in France ahead of the Fed and BoJ meetings at the end of the month.
- 1Watch the 10-year yield firstIf yields hold above 5.1%, gold and the yen will struggle to recover and the dollar stays supported
- 2Gold needs to reclaim $4,180As long as it stays below the Bollinger middle band, the short-term picture is negative; key support at $4,073
- 3Watch French headlinesPolitical or credit rating news could swing the euro sharply; trade smaller and use a stop loss on every order
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Sources (16)
- PBoC – Loan Prime Rate
- ONS – UK Labour Market
- U.S. Census Bureau – New Residential Construction
- BabyPips – Financial & Forex Market Recap (19 Oct)
- CappNotes – Closing Look 19 Oct
- AP via CP24 – European stocks fall, France / oil (19 Oct)
- FXStreet – Forex Today (19 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold tumbles below $4,150 (20 Oct)
- Trading Economics – US Dollar Index (19 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Gold (19 Oct)
- RoboForex – EURUSD Forecast 19 Oct
- ActionForex – EUR/USD Outlook (16–17 Oct)
- Vantage Markets – USD/JPY 19 Oct
- Reuters via Investing.com – China LPR (19 Oct)
- Kaohoon International – Economic Calendar 19–23 Oct
- Investing.com – US economic calendar 19–23 Oct
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