Forex news today: WTI crude fell about 4% after Trump signalled a major strike on Iran was unlikely if a deal is reached. The dollar index (DXY) slipped about 0.6% and gold (XAUUSD) rose about 1.7% to around $4,139. At 13:30 GMT today, markets await October US CPI, expected to slow to +0.3% m/m.
Updated Tue 10 Nov 2026 · 01:20 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Mon 9 Nov 2026
Key takeaways
- 1WTI crude fell about 4% to around $86.85 after Trump said a major strike on Iran was “unlikely” if a good deal is reached
- 2The dollar index (DXY) slipped about 0.6% to around 101.69, giving back part of Friday’s gains, with the Aussie dollar, pound and euro leading
- 3Gold rose about 1.7% to around $4,139, even as markets still price roughly 80% odds of a December Fed hike per CME FedWatch
- 4Today US CPI Oct at 13:30 GMT: forecast +0.3% m/m, core +0.2%; the BLS will not publish a y/y figure this time
Today’s events Tue 10 Nov 2026
- China trade balance (Oct)Forecast surplus $126.5B · Exports forecast +33.5% y/y (previous +36.3%)MED
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaksWatch for his view on a December hikeMED
- US NFIB small business optimism (Oct)Monthly reportLOW
- US CPI (Oct)Forecast +0.3% m/m · Previous +0.6% · Core forecast +0.2%No official y/y figure (October 2025 data missing due to the shutdown)Read the preview →Due today 13:30 GMTHIGH
- Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan speaksAfter the CPI releaseMED
- Fed’s Michelle Bowman and Jeffrey Schmid speakTuesday eveningMED
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Monday 9 Nov 2026 (New York) from Trading Economics · ▲▼ vs. Friday 6 Nov close · USD/JPY and WTI changes calculated from the previous close · Gold and oil are CFD prices, not official benchmark prices
Oil slides on Iran headlines, dollar softens, gold climbs back to $4,139
On Monday (9 Nov), crude oil fell sharply after President Trump said a major strike on Iran was unlikely if a good deal is reached. WTI dropped below $88 intraday, its lowest since late August, and closed around $86.85, down about 4%, despite reports of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Secretary of State Rubio playing down expectations for talks, according to Trading Economics. Cheaper oil eased inflation worries, so the dollar index (DXY) slipped about 0.6% to around 101.69, giving back part of Friday’s sharp gains after the 165K October NFP.
Markets still price roughly 80% odds of a 0.25% Fed rate hike at the 8–9 Dec meeting per CME FedWatch (TheStreet cites 83.4%). The US 10-year Treasury yield held around 4.88–4.90%, while gold (XAUUSD) rose about 1.7% to around $4,139, supported by the softer dollar and WGC data showing China’s central bank bought another 25.8 tonnes of gold in October. Catch up on the previous day in Forex News 9 Nov.
“The Fed has to acknowledge it has not yet succeeded on the inflation side of its mandate, and must deal with the risk of the economy running hot on AI-driven demand.”
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President · 9 Nov (paraphrased from TheStreet/Bloomberg)
Asset by asset
Gold climbs back above $4,100 as the dollar softens
Gold closed Monday around $4,139, up about 1.7% from around $4,070, even with high odds of a December Fed hike still priced in. FXDailyReport sees $4,110–$4,170 as the key short-term range, with next support at $4,000 and resistance at $4,250. If today’s CPI comes in hotter than expected, gold could be pushed back down to test the lower zone. See the latest gold analysis →
Euro recovers to around 1.1189 but stays below 1.1200
EUR/USD rose about 0.3% to around 1.1189 on the softer dollar, but remains below the psychological 1.1200 level and Thursday’s (5 Nov) close around 1.1223. On the downside, Friday’s close around 1.1151 and 1.1100 act as support. Eurozone October inflation of about 4% still supports the euro, but speculation over the next ECB president continues to weigh.
USD/JPY eases to around 157.91 ahead of CPI
USD/JPY eased about 0.4% to around 157.91 from around 158.47 on Friday as the dollar softened, while BoJ officials signalled a possible December hike. 158.47 is the first resistance, then 159.00, while support sits around 157.66 (5 Nov close) and 157.00.
What to watch today
China’s October trade balance is out at 03:00 GMT. The main event is October US CPI at 13:30 GMT. Markets expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% m/m, slowing from 0.6% in September, and core to rise 0.2% from 0.3%. This time the BLS will not publish a y/y figure because October 2025 data is missing after the 43-day government shutdown. Fed officials Logan and Bowman speak after the release. See all central bank meeting dates in the central bank rates table.
- US bond market closed (Veterans Day)Wed, all day
- UK GDP Q3 (preliminary)Thu 07:00 GMT
- US PPI (Oct)Fri 13:30 GMT
Our view
The sharp drop in oil on hopes of a deal with Iran eases inflation pressure in the market’s eyes, so the dollar pulled back after Friday’s surge. But the odds of a December Fed hike remain high at about 80%, making today’s CPI the deciding factor for whether the dollar strengthens again or keeps weakening.
- 1CPI is the deciderIf core comes in above 0.2%, markets may add back Fed hike bets and the dollar could recover
- 2Gold in a $4,110–$4,170 rangeA break below or above the range after the data will give a clearer short-term direction
- 3Be careful around the releasePrices may swing sharply at 13:30 GMT today; reduce position size and set a stop loss on every order
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Sources (10)
- BLS – Consumer Price Index (October release due 10 Nov)
- Federal Reserve – Calendar
- Trading Economics – DXY / EUR / GBP / AUD / JPY (9 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Gold / Crude Oil (9 Nov)
- Trading Economics – US 10Y Yield (10 Nov)
- investingLive – US CPI preview (9 Nov)
- Kiplinger – October CPI preview (9 Nov)
- TheStreet – Goolsbee / FedWatch (9 Nov)
- FXDailyReport – Gold technicals (9 Nov)
- Finobird – Economic calendar (10 Nov)
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