The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is due Tuesday 10 Nov at 13:30 GMT. Markets expect prices to rise 0.3% m/m, slowing from 0.6% in September, with Core CPI up 0.2%. This time the BLS will not publish year-over-year rates for headline or Core CPI, so markets are likely to focus on the monthly figures, which could shift the odds of a Fed rate hike in December.
Created Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 23:41 GMT · The actual result will be updated on this page around 14:00 GMT
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) · Oct 2026
Due Tue 10 Nov 2026 · 13:30 GMT
Key takeaways
- 1Markets expect US CPI for October to rise 0.3% m/m (September +0.6%), with Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, up 0.2% (September +0.3%). The latest year-over-year readings for September were 3.7% for headline and 2.6% for Core.
- 2The BLS said it will not publish 12-month changes for October for headline or Core CPI, because no October 2025 price data was collected during the US government shutdown. The monthly (m/m) figures are therefore the main readings this time.
- 3After October NFP came in at 165K well above forecast, CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 0.25% Fed hike at the 8–9 Dec meeting at around 77%. This CPI release could add to or reduce the weight of that view.
Above / In line / Below forecast
CPI above +0.3% m/m
Markets would generally see inflation as not yet cooling and could price in a higher chance of a December Fed hike. The dollar could strengthen, gold (XAUUSD) could come under pressure, EUR/USD could weaken and USD/JPY could rise. If Core CPI is also above +0.2%, the impact is usually clearer.
CPI around +0.3% · Core around +0.2%
Markets have partly priced in the figure, so the initial reaction is usually limited. The next move depends on details in the report, such as energy and shelter, as well as comments from Fed officials after the release.
CPI below +0.3% m/m
Markets would generally see inflation pressure easing, and the chance of a December Fed hike could fall. The dollar could weaken, gold could attract buying, EUR/USD could rise and USD/JPY could ease.
What is this release and why does it matter
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is compiled by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and measures changes in the prices of goods and services that households buy regularly. It is released monthly at 8:30 a.m. New York time (13:30 GMT when the US is not on daylight saving time). Markets watch both the headline figure and Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, because it is the first inflation data of the month that the Fed uses in its decisions. Read the CPI guide →
Last time, September CPI rose 0.6% m/m, driven mainly by a 9.1% jump in gasoline prices, while the Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% in October, with 2 members dissenting in favor of a hike. See the week’s key releases on the economic calendar and compare rates by country on central bank rates
Timeline
- Sep CPI came in at +0.6% m/m · 3.7% y/y
- Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00%, vote 10–2
- US NFP Oct came in at 165K, unemployment 4.1%
- 1TRADER publishes preview (this page)
- BLS releases US CPI for October
- Actual result updated on this page
- Fed decision Dec
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