How to read an economic calendar and know which releases move gold and currencies
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An economic calendar tells you which economic figures will be released, on which day, at what time, and what the market expects. In the few minutes after a big release, gold and currencies can move more than they do for the rest of the day, so knowing in advance helps you plan entries and exits, or avoid the riskiest moments.
This article explains how to read the table on this page, how US release times in GMT shift with daylight saving time, and which groups of releases tend to move the dollar and gold. It works for the calendar in any week.
Quick summary
- Look at HIGH releases first. Most are US data, such as CPI, Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed meetings
- Markets move on the part that is different from the forecast, not on the previous figure
- Most US releases come out at 12:30 GMT until 1 Nov 2026, then move to 13:30 GMT
- Around a release, spreads can widen and orders can be filled away from the price you set
BasicsRead 4 fields in the table: time, impact level, previous and forecast
Each release on this page shows its time in GMT, the code of the currency most directly affected (such as USD or EUR) and an impact label, HIGH, MED or LOW. Under the release name are the previous figure and the analysts’ forecast (where available).
The impact label tells you how much a release usually moves prices, not the direction. The direction depends on whether the actual figure comes in above or below the forecast. Releases that have already passed this week are shown in grey.
Note If a figure comes in exactly at the forecast, prices usually don’t move much, because the market had already priced it in.
GMTUS releases shift by 1 hour with daylight saving time
US agencies release data on New York time (ET). Most releases, such as CPI, Nonfarm Payrolls and retail sales, come out at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is 12:30 GMT while the US is on daylight saving time and 13:30 GMT after it ends.
This year the US ends daylight saving time on 1 Nov 2026 and starts it again on 14 Mar 2027. ISM releases at 10:00 a.m. ET come out at 14:00 GMT or 15:00 GMT, and Fed decisions at 2:00 p.m. ET come out at 18:00 GMT or 19:00 GMT.
Note GMT never changes for daylight saving time, so release times in GMT shift whenever the releasing country changes its clocks. Europe and the UK end daylight saving time earlier than the US (this year on 25 Oct). See more session times in Forex market hours
InflationCPI, PCE and PPI: the releases markets watch most
CPI, the US consumer price index, is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) around mid-month. Core PCE is released by the BEA around the end of the month and is the measure the US Federal Reserve (Fed) uses for its 2% inflation target. PPI measures producer prices and usually comes out close to CPI.
When inflation comes in above forecast, markets usually expect the Fed to keep rates high for longer, so the dollar tends to strengthen, while gold, which pays no interest, tends to weaken. See the usual direction for each group of releases in the table above.
Note Markets usually give more weight to core inflation, which excludes food and energy, than to the headline figure, because it shows the trend better.
Labour marketNonfarm Payrolls and jobless claims
Nonfarm Payrolls is the number of US jobs outside farming, released by the BLS, usually on the first Friday of the month, together with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. All three come out at once, so prices can whip both ways within minutes.
Initial jobless claims come out every Thursday. This weekly figure helps track the labour market while waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls. The higher the number, the weaker the labour market.
Note Nonfarm Payrolls also revises the two previous months. Sometimes the revisions move prices more than the latest month’s figure.
Central banksRate decisions and meeting minutes
The Fed meets 8 times a year. The decision is followed by a press conference from the Fed chair about 30 minutes later, and prices are often volatile during both. The meeting minutes (FOMC Minutes) come out about 3 weeks after each meeting and show how far policymakers disagreed.
Other central banks worth following include the ECB, BoE, BoJ, BoC, RBA and RBNZ. See the next meeting dates and latest rates in the central bank rates table
Note When a decision is in line with expectations, markets shift their focus to the statement and the outlook for future rates.
Key releases in GMT Times in the table apply while the US is on daylight saving time (until 1 Nov 2026). After that, add 1 hour to US releases
| Release | When | GMT | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPIBLS · consumer inflation | Around mid-month | 12:30 | HIGH |
| Nonfarm PayrollsBLS · jobs | Usually the first Friday of the month | 12:30 | HIGH |
| Core PCEBEA · the Fed’s inflation gauge | Around the end of the month | 12:30 | HIGH |
| US retail salesCensus · spending | Around mid-month | 12:30 | HIGH |
| ISM Manufacturing / ServicesISM · business surveys | 1st and 3rd business day of the month | 14:00 | MED |
| Jobless claimsUS Department of Labor | Every Thursday | 12:30 | MED |
| Fed rate decisionFederal Reserve | 8 times a year | 18:00 | HIGH |
Why prices can move differently than expected The same release doesn’t always have the same effect
The further the actual figure is from the forecast, the bigger the move usually is.
Upward or downward revisions to the previous month can cancel out the latest figure.
Releases that come out together but point in different directions can whip prices both ways.
On US or European holidays there are fewer market participants, so prices can jump more easily.
Checklist before a big release Use it every time there is a HIGH release
- Check the release time in GMT, and whether the US is on daylight saving time
- Write down the forecast so you can compare it with the actual figure as soon as it is out
- Check whether other releases come out at the same time
- Set a stop loss and allow for spreads widening around the release
- If you’re not sure, wait 15–30 minutes for prices to settle after the release before deciding
Summary
Use the economic calendar to see in advance when gold and currencies may be volatile. Start with HIGH US releases, compare the actual figure with the forecast, and watch for times shifting with daylight saving time. Read more about what each figure means in the economic indicators guide. Trading around releases carries high risk; read the risk disclosure before deciding.
Sources: release schedules from BLS · BEA · Federal Reserve · ISM · Price directions are common tendencies, not investment advice