At 13:15 GMT today the European Central Bank (ECB) announces its policy decision. Markets expect the deposit rate to stay at 2.50% after a 0.25% hike in September, but eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September on energy prices. Markets are therefore waiting to hear whether Christine Lagarde opens the door to a December hike and how she addresses the French bond market strains.
Published Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 01:31 GMT · The actual result will be added to this page around 13:55 GMT
ECB decision · Deposit Facility Rate
Announced Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 13:15 GMT
Quick summary
- 1Markets expect the ECB to hold the deposit rate at 2.50% and the refi rate at 2.65% after a 0.25% hike at the 10 Sep meeting. Market pricing implies only about 1–2bp for a move this time, but around 20bp by year-end
- 2Eurozone inflation came in at 3.8% in September, above the 3.6% forecast, on surging energy prices, while October PMIs still show expansion but at a slower pace, with France the main drag
- 3The key moment is Lagarde’s press conference at 13:45 GMT and whether she signals a December hike, with the euro (EUR/USD) near 1.114, close to its lowest since Apr 2025
If more hawkish / dovish than expected
An immediate hike, or a clear signal of a December hike
The euro would typically get support to climb back above 1.1160, weighing on the dollar index (DXY), where the euro has the largest weight
A hold with emphasis on slowing growth risks
The euro could weaken further to test 1.1120, with a risk of a drop towards 1.1000 as BBH has suggested, especially if Lagarde offers no reassurance on French bonds
What this event is and why markets care
The ECB (European Central Bank) sets monetary policy for the countries that use the euro. Its key rate is the Deposit Facility Rate, paid to banks that deposit money with the ECB. The decision is released at 14:15 Frankfurt time (13:15 GMT), followed by a press conference 30 minutes later. Read our central banks guide →
The euro makes up about 58% of the dollar index (DXY), so ECB decisions move both the euro and the dollar directly. There are no new staff projections at this meeting, so markets will focus mainly on the tone of the press conference. Compare other central banks’ rates in our central bank rates table
Timeline
- ECB hikes by 0.25%, deposit rate to 2.50% (effective 16 Sep)
- Flash eurozone September inflation at 3.8%, above the 3.6% forecast
- 1TRADER publishes the preview (this page)
- ECB announces its decision
- Christine Lagarde holds her press conference
- Actual result and market reaction added to this page
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