At 12:30 GMT today the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the September PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Markets expect Core PCE to edge up to 3.1% y/y from 3.0%, and Q3 GDP is released at the same time. With the Fed having just held rates in a split 10–2 vote, these figures bear directly on the odds of a December hike.
Published Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 01:31 GMT · The actual result will be added to this page around 13:10 GMT
Core PCE y/y · Sep 2026
Released Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 12:30 GMT
Quick summary
- 1Markets expect September Core PCE to rise 0.3% m/m, the biggest gain in four months, and 3.1% y/y from 3.0%, while headline PCE is expected to accelerate to 3.6% from 3.4% on high energy prices
- 2Q3 GDP (advance estimate) is released at the same time, with markets expecting 3.2% annualised growth from 2.2% in Q2, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate stands at 3.3% (28 Oct)
- 3The Fed has just held rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, and markets price roughly an 83–85% chance of a hike on 9 Dec. Hotter-than-expected inflation would reinforce that view
If it comes in above / below forecast
Core PCE above 3.1% y/y or above 0.3% m/m
Markets would typically grow more confident of a December Fed hike, supporting the dollar and yields, while gold could be pushed down to test support around $4,015–4,000
Core PCE below 3.1% y/y or only 0.2% m/m
Markets could scale back bets on a December hike, the dollar could weaken and gold could rebound to test resistance around $4,059–4,079, although the GDP figure released at the same time could offset the move
What this event is and why markets care
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) measures prices of personal consumption spending and is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at the US Department of Commerce. The Fed uses it for its 2% inflation target, focusing mainly on Core PCE, which excludes food and energy. Read our PCE guide →
This time the BEA releases September PCE together with Q3 GDP on the same morning (8:30 New York time), so markets could swing both ways. If the economy grows strongly while inflation accelerates, pressure on the Fed to hike would rise. See other central banks’ rates in our central bank rates table
Timeline
- BEA annual update puts August Core PCE at 3.0% y/y
- Fed holds at 3.75–4.00%, vote 10–2 (two votes for a hike)
- 1TRADER publishes the preview (this page)
- BEA releases September PCE and the Q3 GDP advance estimate
- Actual result and market reaction added to this page
Core PCE seen accelerating, dollar and gold set to swing: get cash back on every lot
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