The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% as expected, but the vote split 10–2, with two officials wanting an immediate hike. The dollar (DXY) eased slightly during Kevin Warsh’s press conference, while spot gold (XAUUSD) kept swinging around $4,040–4,057. Today markets face back-to-back major events: US PCE and GDP at 12:30 GMT, followed by the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT.
Updated Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 01:43 GMT · Prices as of the New York close on Wed 28 Oct (Asian morning, 29 Oct)
Key takeaways
- 1The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% as expected, but in a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanting an immediate 0.25% hike. The next meeting is on 8–9 Dec
- 2Markets still price roughly an 83–85% chance of a December hike. The dollar (DXY) eased about 0.2% to around 102.15 during the press conference and the 2-year yield fell to 4.72%
- 3Gold closed Wednesday’s session near $4,057, almost unchanged, and slipped to around $4,039 this morning. WTI crude is near $102 after the Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery
- 4Today, watch US PCE and GDP at 12:30 GMT, followed by the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT, and the BoJ on Friday
Today’s events, Thu 29 Oct 2026
- Japan consumer confidence (Oct)Forecast 35.1 · Previous 35.4LOW
- UK mortgage approvals (Sep)Forecast 56K · Previous 54.9KLOW
- Eurozone economic sentiment (Oct)Forecast 97.5 · Previous 97.9LOW
- HIGH
- US PCE (Sep)Core forecast 3.1% · Previous 3.0% (y/y)Core m/m forecast 0.3% · Headline PCE forecast 3.6%Read the analysis →Due today 12:30 GMTHIGH
- US initial jobless claimsForecast 196K · Previous 194KMED
- ECB decisionDeposit rate expected at 2.50% · Refi 2.65%Watch for a December hike signalRead the analysis →Due today 13:15 GMTHIGH
- Lagarde post-meeting press conference30 minutes after the decisionMED
- US natural gas storage (EIA)Forecast 75B · Previous 77BLOW
Market overview
Approximate prices from Trading Economics on the morning of Thu 29 Oct 2026 (Asian session, after the New York close on Wed 28 Oct) · ▲▼ change vs Wednesday morning, 28 Oct · Compared with Reuters on Wednesday evening (DXY 102.15 · EUR/USD 1.1160 · GBP/USD 1.3323 · USD/JPY 157.87) and Kitco late in the US session (gold $4,056.80 · WTI $101.89)
The Fed pauses its hikes in a split vote and the dollar dips during the press conference
On Wednesday (28 Oct, US time) the Fed held its target range at 3.75–4.00% after a 0.25% hike in September, but the vote was 10–2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanting another 0.25% hike. The statement said inflation remains elevated. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no advance signal about the December meeting and announced that from 2027 one of the eight meetings each year will be a strategy meeting with no rate vote. Read more in our Fed decision analysis
Reuters reported that the dollar index (DXY) fell about 0.2% to around 102.15 during the press conference, while the euro rose to around 1.1160. The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.72%, but the 10-year yield stayed near 5%, and CME FedWatch still priced about an 85% chance of a December hike. On the same day the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised rates for the first time in more than three years to curb energy-driven inflation, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held at 2.75% against expectations of a hike, sending the New Zealand dollar down as much as 1.74%. In oil, Kitco said WTI recovered to around $102 after the Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, although Saudi authorities have not confirmed any damage
“I don’t believe in forward guidance outside of a crisis, and I won’t prejudge what any meeting will do.”
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh · press conference, 28 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Yields and oil still weigh on gold, trading below $4,060
Gold closed late in the US session near $4,056.80, almost unchanged according to Kitco, despite a weaker dollar, as higher oil prices and expectations of a December Fed hike limited buying. This morning it slipped to around $4,039. Kitco puts support at $4,039 and $4,015 and resistance at $4,059 and $4,079. A break below $4,015 could bring a retest of $4,000 See the latest gold analysis →
The euro bounces from around 1.112 after the Fed but stays near its lowest since Apr 2025
The euro (EUR/USD) fell for five straight days to around 1.1125 before the Fed, then bounced to around 1.1160 during Warsh’s press conference and is near 1.1141 this morning. Concerns over French public finances and bonds are still weighing, and BBH sees a risk of a drop towards 1.1000. Today’s direction depends on the tone of the ECB and Lagarde Read the ECB preview →
The yen stays weak near 157.9 ahead of Friday’s BoJ
USD/JPY was little changed after the Fed, near 157.87–157.89. Key resistance is the 158.00–158.50 zone and 158.95 (the 14 Oct high). Markets expect the BoJ to hold at 1.25% on Friday (around 86%) and see a hike to 1.50% in December as the base case. The 159–160 area is where Japanese authorities have warned before and intervened on 30 Apr
What to watch today
Today’s main releases come together at 12:30 GMT: the September PCE price index, with Core PCE expected at 3.1% y/y, and Q3 GDP, expected to grow 3.2% annualised. Then at 13:15 GMT comes the ECB decision, with the deposit rate expected to stay at 2.50%, and Lagarde’s press conference at 13:45 GMT. Compare central bank rates worldwide in our central bank rates table
- Tokyo CPI (Oct)Thu 23:30
- BoJ decision (hold at 1.25% expected)Fri ~05:00
- US Employment Cost Index (ECI)Fri 12:30
- US daylight saving time ends (8:30 ET data moves to 13:30 GMT)Sun 1 Nov
- US midterm electionsTue 3 Nov
Our view
The Fed has paused but has not closed the door on further hikes. With two votes for an immediate hike, markets still put a high weight on a December move, so today’s data is a test. If PCE accelerates as expected or more, the dollar should stay supported, while gold, held down by yields near 5% and expensive oil, will struggle to recover, and the euro will depend on the ECB’s tone
- 1PCE is the key variableCore PCE at the expected 3.1% would likely confirm the current picture, while a miss of 0.1% or more in either direction would cause bigger swings
- 2Gold remains in a $4,015–4,079 rangeWatch which side of the range breaks after the data, with $4,000 as psychological support
- 3Major events within one hourBetween 12:30 and 13:45 GMT spreads may widen and prices may whipsaw, so reduce position size and use a stop loss on every trade
PCE and ECB back to back today, expect big swings: get cash back on every lot
Rebate per lot · Standard Plus account
Rebate per lot · Standard account
Rebate per lot
1TRADER is a partner (IB) of these brokers and earns a commission when you open an account through our links · % is the share of the IB commission returned to you, not a percentage of your deposit · Rates as of Sep 2026 · Compare rebates across brokers
Learn to trade free with 1TRADER
Sources (13)
- Federal Reserve – Press Releases (FOMC 28 Oct)
- ECB – Key ECB interest rates
- Reuters via Central Oregon Daily – Dollar after the Fed (28 Oct)
- Kitco – Gold / oil / FedWatch (28 Oct)
- Admirals – Warsh Press Conference (28 Oct)
- TradersAgency – 2027 strategy meetings
- ActionForex – Eco Data 29 Oct (forecasts)
- Newsquawk – ECB preview, 29 Oct
- ATFX – EUR/USD (28 Oct)
- TradingNews – USD/JPY / BoJ (28 Oct)
- StockTitan – Q3 GDP / GDPNow
- Trading Economics – Currencies
- Trading Economics – Commodities
Risk warning: Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news summary is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
Compiled by the 1TRADER editorial teamEditorial policy and sourcesFull risk disclosureReport an error
Read more
Related news
Forex NewsForex News 28 Oct 2026: Dollar Climbs to 102.4, Gold Rebounds to $4,055
Forex NewsWeekly Forex Recap 19–23 Oct 2026Gold drops 4% to $4,000, oil surges ahead of central bank week
GoldGold Price Today 28 Oct 2026: XAUUSD Near $4,048, Steady Before Fed
Forex NewsBreaking news: Asian stocks crash, KOSPI −8% triggers circuit breaker, Nikkei −5%, gold rebounds