The Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted 8–1 to hold its policy rate at 1.25%, in line with market expectations, with board member Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of a hike to 1.50%. The BoJ also said underlying inflation is now consistent with its 2% target, which typically leads markets to price a December hike more heavily and offers the yen some support. The impact on the dollar and gold is likely to be limited. Markets now await Governor Ueda’s press conference in the afternoon.
Published Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 00:54 GMT · Result updated Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 03:43 GMT
BoJ Decision · Policy Rate, Oct 2026
Released Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 03:00 GMT
Update after the release: The BoJ held its policy rate at 1.25% as expected, in an 8–1 vote, with Hajime Takata proposing a hike to 1.50% · The Outlook Report says underlying inflation is consistent with the 2% target and raises the FY2027 core CPI forecast to 2.6% (from 2.4%)
Key points
- 1Markets expect the BoJ to hold at 1.25%. Newsquawk says money markets price around a 98% chance of a hold, and all 28 analysts surveyed by FinChiefs expect no change.
- 2The key is the wording on underlying inflation: a shift from “close to 2%” to “around 2%” would be read as a signal for a hike on 17–18 Dec, which most economists in a Reuters poll already expect.
- 3Tokyo core CPI for October came in at 2.6%, in line with forecasts and down from 2.7%, while USD/JPY closed Thursday near 157.89, close to the 160 zone where markets worry about intervention.
If hawkish / dovish
Clear signal for a December hike, or dissents in favour of a hike
The yen would typically find support, USD/JPY could slip from around 158 and weigh slightly on the dollar index (DXY). Gold could get some support from a softer dollar.
Hold with little weight on a December hike
The yen could weaken further and USD/JPY could move towards the 158–160 zone, where markets will start watching for warnings or intervention from Japanese authorities.
What it is and why markets care
The BoJ decision sets the Bank of Japan’s short-term policy rate. The meeting runs for two days and the decision comes around midday Tokyo time on the second day, with no fixed release time. The October meeting also brings the Outlook Report with new inflation and growth forecasts, followed by Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference in the afternoon. Read the central bank guide →
The BoJ raised rates to 1.25% in September. The still-wide rate gap with the US (the Fed is at 3.75–4.00%) is the main reason the yen remains weak, so the decision directly moves USD/JPY and other yen pairs. Compare other central bank rates in the central bank rates table
Timeline
- BoJ hikes by 0.25% to 1.25% (2 board members dissent)
- Fed holds at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote
- Tokyo core CPI Oct comes in at 2.6% (forecast 2.6%)
- 1TRADER publishes the preview (this page)
- BoJ announces its policy rate: 1.25% (forecast 1.25%), 8–1 vote
- Actual result added to this page
- Governor Ueda’s press conference (approximate time)
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Sources (6)
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