Spot gold (XAUUSD) fell about 3% to close the week near $3,876, its lowest in roughly 12 months, after the Fed held rates in a split 10–2 vote and strong PCE and GDP data lifted bets on a December hike. The dollar (DXY) gained about 0.2% to around 101.96, the euro (EUR/USD) weakened to near 1.116, and crude oil held above $104 after a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Updated Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 03:24 GMT · New York close on Fri 30 Oct 2026 vs. the close on Fri 23 Oct 2026
Key takeaways of the week
- 1The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% as expected, but the vote was 10–2, with Cook and Hammack wanting an immediate 0.25% hike. Markets price a December hike at about 72–75% (CME FedWatch)
- 2September Core PCE came in at 3.1% y/y, in line with forecasts, headline PCE at 3.6%, and Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, beating expectations, supporting the view that inflation is not yet beaten
- 3Gold fell about 3% on the week, dropping more than 3% on Friday alone to break below $3,900 amid a tech sell-off after disappointing earnings (Nasdaq −2.86%), while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 4.93%
- 4Other central banks: BoC hiked to 2.50% · RBNZ surprised by holding at 2.75% · ECB held at 2.50% · BoJ held at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote · Brent closed at $117.64, its highest since late April
Weekly performance
Closing prices Fri 30 Oct 2026 (New York) vs. the close on Fri 23 Oct 2026 · FX and DXY from Trading Economics, cross-checked with Investrade (EUR/USD 1.1168 · USD/JPY 157.53) and Convera · Gold: Trading Economics $3,875.84 / December gold futures closed at $3,898.90, down about 2.9% on the week (Investrade) · WTI December contract closed at $104.12 (Investrade, Rio Times) · US10Y: Trading Economics 4.93% / Investrade 4.928% · % figures are rounded and may differ slightly by price source
What happened this week
The week opened with volatility abroad: the Brazilian real slumped after the election result on Monday 26 Oct, while gold tried to hold around $4,000 ahead of the central bank meetings. Wednesday 28 Oct brought several decisions, starting with the RBNZ, which held at 2.75% against market expectations of a hike, sending the New Zealand dollar sharply lower. The BoC then raised rates by 0.25% to 2.50%, its first move after 7 straight holds. Australian September inflation accelerated to 4.3% y/y, keeping the Aussie dollar (AUD/USD) above 0.70
Late on Wednesday 28 Oct the Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00%, but two officials wanted an immediate hike. On Thursday 29 Oct, US Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, beating forecasts, September Core PCE came in at 3.1% as expected and headline PCE accelerated to 3.6%, so markets priced the chance of a December Fed hike at about 72–75%. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% without committing to a future path, and the euro (EUR/USD) slid to 1.1105, its lowest in about 18 months, before recovering partly
On Friday 30 Oct the BoJ held at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote and said underlying inflation is nearing its 2% target. Later in the day US tech stocks were sold off after disappointing results from major companies, with the Nasdaq down 2.86%. Money flowed into bonds, pushing the 10-year yield down to around 4.93%, its lowest in about 7 weeks, yet gold was sold alongside stocks, falling more than 3% through $3,900 to close near $3,876. Meanwhile, an oil tanker was hit by an explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting Brent to a $117.64 close and WTI to $104.12
Key data and decisions this week
- Wed 28 Oct · New ZealandHIGHRBNZ holds at 2.75%, a surprise 4–3 vote vs. an expected hike to 3.00%; the New Zealand dollar fell about 1.4% on the day
- Wed 28 Oct · AustraliaHIGHCPI (Sep) 4.3% y/y up from 4.0%, raising the odds of an RBA hike on 3 Nov
- Wed 28 Oct · CanadaHIGHBoC hikes 0.25% to 2.50% first hike after 7 straight holds · See central bank rates →
- Wed 28 Oct · United StatesHIGHFOMC holds at 3.75–4.00%, 10–2 vote Cook and Hammack wanted a 0.25% hike · Read the analysis →
- Thu 29 Oct · United StatesHIGHCore PCE (Sep) 3.1% · Q3 GDP 3.4% headline PCE 3.6% y/y, GDP beat forecasts · Read the analysis →
- Thu 29 Oct · EurozoneHIGHECB holds deposit rate at 2.50% no commitment on the future path · Read the analysis →
- Fri 30 Oct · JapanHIGHBoJ holds at 1.25%, 8–1 vote Takata proposed a hike to 1.50% · Read the analysis →
Daily gold: Gold Price Today 30 Oct → · Daily news: Forex news →
Week ahead
Next week (2–6 Nov) the main theme remains whether the Fed will hike in December. The key release is October Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday at 13:30 GMT; the previous print was just 29K, the market expects about 56K and unemployment at 4.2%. Before that come ISM manufacturing on Monday and ISM services on Wednesday, both at 15:00 GMT. Tuesday 3 Nov brings the US midterm elections, which could move the dollar and yields through the fiscal outlook. All times GMT
Outside the US, the RBA decides on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT, with markets expecting a hike from 4.60% to 4.85% after Australian inflation accelerated. The BoE announces on Thursday at 12:00 GMT, expected to hike from 3.75% to 4.00%, and Wednesday brings flash eurozone inflation for October, forecast at 3.9%. See the latest rates and next meeting dates in our central bank rates table
Risks to watch: gold has broken below $3,900; if US data stays strong and yields climb again, the pressure may continue, but if the tech sell-off stops, buyers may return. Oil keeps swinging on Strait of Hormuz headlines. US daylight saving time ends on 1 Nov, so 8:30 ET releases will land at 13:30 GMT from next week. This article is a market overview, not investment advice
- US ISM Manufacturing (Oct)Mon 2 Nov · prev. 54.5HIGH
- RBA rate decisionTue 3 Nov · current 4.60%, hike expectedHIGH
- Eurozone flash inflation (Oct)Wed 4 Nov · prev. 3.8%HIGH
- BoE rate decisionThu 5 Nov · current 3.75%, hike expectedHIGH
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)Fri 6 Nov · prev. 29K, unemployment 4.2%HIGH
Our view
Markets head into next week with gold under pressure, as the Fed keeps the door open to a hike and oil stays expensive, while tech stocks remain volatile. Key events are spread across the week: the RBA, the BoE, Nonfarm Payrolls and the US midterm elections.
- 1US release times shiftFrom 2 Nov, 8:30 ET releases come out at 13:30 GMT
- 2Watch gold at $3,900If it fails to reclaim it, selling may continue into NFP
- 3Use a stop loss on every tradeStrait of Hormuz headlines are causing big swings in oil and gold
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Sources (14)
- Trading Economics – Gold (30 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Dollar and currencies
- Trading Economics – US10Y
- Trading Economics – AUD/USD
- Trading Economics – USD/JPY and BoJ
- Investrade – Market Review (30 Oct)
- Rio Times – Oil and the Strait of Hormuz (30 Oct)
- Rio Times – Gold (30 Oct)
- TradingKey – Gold falls below $3,900
- Convera – Weekly FX Report (30 Oct)
- Westpac – RBNZ October Review
- Rio Times – BoC 28 Oct
- ABS – Australia CPI, Sep
- ActionForex – Calendar 2–6 Nov
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