The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release October Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday 6 Nov at 13:30 GMT. Markets expect payrolls to rise by 65K after 29K in September, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. The result could shift views on whether the Fed hikes rates in December, so the dollar and gold may swing sharply around the release.
Published Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 23:50 GMT · The actual result will be updated on this page around 14:00 GMT
US Nonfarm Payrolls · Oct 2026
Release Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 13:30 GMT
Quick take
- 1Markets expect October nonfarm payrolls to rise by 65K (Reuters and Trading Economics polls; Newsquawk as of 30 Oct expected 55K) from 29K in September, which fell well short of the 90K forecast. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%
- 2In the September report, the BLS revised July and August down by a combined 60K and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% (3.0% y/y), so this time markets will watch the headline, the revisions and wages.
- 3Early signals: October ADP came in at +86K, above the Reuters poll of 69K, and the employment index in the ISM services survey rose to 51.4 from 50.1, while economists cited by Reuters expect the Fed to hike in December.
Above / in line / below forecast
Payrolls above 65K and unemployment at or below 4.2%
This would typically confirm the labour market is holding up and could raise the odds of a December Fed hike. The dollar and US Treasury yields could gain support, gold (XAUUSD) may come under pressure, EUR/USD could weaken and USD/JPY could move higher.
Payrolls around 65K, unemployment 4.2%
The headline is already priced in, so the initial reaction is usually limited. The next move depends on average hourly earnings, revisions to prior months and US October CPI due on 10 Nov.
Payrolls below 65K or unemployment above 4.2%
This would typically ease pressure on the Fed to hike. The dollar could weaken, gold may attract buying, EUR/USD could rise and USD/JPY may pull back. If wages accelerate sharply, though, the market effects could partly offset each other.
What this release is and why markets care
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the number of jobs added or lost in the US excluding farm work. It comes from the BLS Employment Situation report, released together with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, usually on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time (13:30 GMT since the US ended daylight saving time on 1 Nov). It is one of the releases that moves the dollar and gold the most. Read the NFP guide →
This release matters because the Fed just held rates at 3.75–4.00% with 2 members dissenting in favour of a hike. Slower hiring in recent months alongside still-high inflation leaves markets weighing whether the Fed will hike at its December meeting. See the week’s key events on the economic calendar and compare rates by country on central bank rates
Timeline
- September NFP comes in at 29K, unemployment 4.2%
- Fed holds rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote
- October ADP comes in at +86K (Reuters poll 69K)
- October ISM services 54.5, employment index 51.4
- 1TRADER publishes this preview
- October NFP release with unemployment and wages
- Actual result updated on this page
- US October CPI
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Sources (6)
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