Eurostat releases the flash eurozone inflation estimate (Flash HICP) for October on Wednesday 4 Nov at 10:00 GMT. A Reuters poll expects it to accelerate to 3.9% from 3.8% in September. The market’s focus is whether core and services inflation follow energy prices higher, since that could shape the ECB’s decision at its 17 Dec meeting.
Published Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 23:47 GMT · The actual result will be added here around 10:30 GMT
Eurozone inflation (HICP) flash · Oct 2026
Due Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 10:00 GMT
Summary
- 1The market expects October headline inflation (HICP) at 3.9% y/y, up from 3.8% in September (Reuters poll via IndexBox; Pound Sterling Live also cites a 3.9% forecast). Core inflation was 2.5% in September and services 3.2%, according to Eurostat’s final figures.
- 2Country figures already released diverged: Italy (HICP) accelerated to 5.6%, France (HICP) came in at 3.8% and Spain at 4.9%, while Germany (CPI) slowed to 2.8%, according to Destatis, which IndexBox attributes to a fuel tax cut effective from 1 Oct.
- 3ECB held rates on 29 Oct and meets next on 17 Dec. The market will use this release to gauge how far energy-driven inflation is spreading to broader goods and services prices, a key variable for the ECB’s rate path.
Above / in line / below forecast
HICP above 3.9%, or core and services clearly accelerate
This typically adds weight to the case for the ECB to tighten further in December. The euro would find support, EUR/USD could move higher and EUR/JPY tends to follow. The dollar may weaken against the euro, which generally gives gold (XAUUSD) some support.
HICP at 3.9% as expected, with core close to last month
The market has largely priced in this number, so the euro’s initial reaction tends to be limited. The next move would depend on the core and services details, as well as the US ISM services PMI due the same day at 15:00 GMT.
HICP below 3.9%, or core slows
This typically eases pressure on the ECB to tighten further. The euro could weaken and EUR/USD may come under pressure, while the dollar gains against the euro, which tends to weigh slightly on gold. Overall, the impact on gold is usually limited compared with US data.
What is this release and why does the market care
HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is a consumer price index calculated the same way in every eurozone country and compiled by Eurostat. The flash estimate comes out around the end of the month or the start of the next, and the final figure mid-month. The ECB uses HICP as its main target, aiming for 2% inflation over the medium term, so the market watches both the headline figure and core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. Read the inflation indicators guide →
This release matters more this time because eurozone inflation has kept accelerating on energy prices affected by the conflict in the Middle East, rising to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August. The euro carries the largest weight in the dollar index (DXY), so the impact of this release also passes through to the dollar and gold. See the week’s key events on the economic calendar and compare rates by country on the central bank rates page
Timeline
- Sep HICP flash comes in at 3.8%, core 2.5%
- Eurostat confirms Sep HICP at 3.8%
- ECB holds rates
- Germany, France, Italy and Spain release flash Oct inflation
- 1TRADER publishes this preview
- Eurostat releases flash Oct HICP (forecast 3.9%)
- Actual result updated on this page
- Next ECB meeting
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Sources (9)
- Eurostat – Flash HICP Sep 2026 at 3.8%
- Eurostat – Sep 2026 HICP, final
- ECB – HICP statistical release calendar (4 Nov 2026)
- InflationTheGuide – Flash HICP Oct release schedule (11:00 CET)
- Destatis – German inflation Oct 2026 at 2.8%
- IndexBox – Inflation in the eurozone’s 4 largest economies, Oct
- IndexBox – Reuters poll sees Oct HICP at 3.9%
- Pound Sterling Live – Week-ahead forecast 2–6 Nov
- Newsquawk – Week in Focus 2–6 Nov 2026
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