The Bank of England (BoE) announces its rate decision on Thursday 5 Nov at 12:00 GMT. Most of the market expects a 0.25% hike from 3.75% to 4.00%, which would be its first hike since August 2023, after September inflation accelerated to 3.5% on energy prices. The key questions are the MPC vote split and whether the new Monetary Policy Report (MPR) leaves the door open to further hikes.
Published Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 23:40 GMT · The actual decision will be added here around 12:40 GMT
BoE meeting · Bank Rate, Nov 2026
Due Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 12:00 GMT
Key points
- 1Markets expect the BoE to raise rates by 0.25% to 4.00% from 3.75%. Market pricing reflects an almost fully priced hike, and a Reuters poll points to a 7–2 vote, with MPC members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra likely to vote for a hold (Reuters, MUFG).
- 2CPI inflation accelerated to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, above the 3.0% the BoE projected in July, while services inflation rose to 3.7% and crude oil remains above $100 a barrel due to the Iran war.
- 3This meeting comes with a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and updated forecasts. Markets will watch how far the BoE raises its peak inflation forecast, and whether Governor Bailey accepts or pushes back on market bets for several more hikes in 2027.
If more hawkish / dovish than expected
Hike to 4.00% with a near-unanimous vote and the door left open to more
The pound (GBP) would typically find support, with GBP/USD and GBP/JPY likely to move higher, while EUR/GBP tends to weaken, especially if the MPR clearly raises its inflation forecasts and the statement opens the way to a hike in December or February.
Hold at 3.75%, or a hike with a signal it may be a one-off
The pound would typically weaken, as a hike is almost fully priced in, along with a path of further hikes next year. If the vote is more split than expected or Bailey pushes back on market views, GBP/USD, which traded around 1.34 in late October, could come under pressure. The impact on the US dollar and gold is usually limited.
What is it and why does it matter?
The BoE decision sets Bank Rate, decided by the 9-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which meets 8 times a year. This time the decision is announced at 12:00 London time (12:00 GMT) together with the minutes and the Monetary Policy Report, followed by Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference at 12:30 London time (12:30 GMT). Read the central bank guide →
At its September meeting the BoE voted 6–3 to hold rates at 3.75% but warned that inflation could rise above 4% early next year. Since then energy prices have stayed high, while unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August and regular pay grew 3.7%. A BoE hike would change the UK’s rate gap with the Fed, which is holding at 3.75–4.00%, so the decision directly affects GBP pairs. Compare other central banks in the central bank rates table and see the week’s key events in the economic calendar
Timeline
- BoE holds at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote
- Unemployment in the 3 months to Aug falls to 4.7%
- Sep CPI accelerates to 3.5% y/y
- 1TRADER publishes this preview
- BoE rate decision and MPR (forecast 4.00%)
- Governor Bailey’s post-meeting press conference
- Actual result updated on this page
BoE sets the pound’s course as GBP/USD swings: get cash back on every lot
Rebate per lot · Standard Plus account
Rebate per lot · Standard account
Rebate per lot
1TRADER is a partner (IB) of these brokers and earns a commission when you open an account through our links · % is the share of the IB commission returned to you, not a percentage of your deposit · Rates as of Sep 2026 · Compare rebates across brokers
Learn to trade free with 1TRADER
Sources (6)
Risk warning: Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is analysis for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Compiled by the 1TRADER editorial teamEditorial policy and sourcesFull risk disclosureReport an error
Read more
Related news
Forex NewsRBA Decision Preview Nov 2026: Hike to 4.85% From 4.60% Expected
Forex NewsUS ISM Manufacturing Oct 2026 Comes In at 55.5, Above 54.7 Forecast
Forex NewsForex News 3 Nov 2026: Oil Plunges 7%, Gold Rebounds to $3,948, RBA Eyed
Forex NewsBreaking: Oil Drops 6% as WTI Falls Below $98, Gold Jumps 2% on Iran Talks