The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is due on Monday 2 Nov at 15:00 GMT. Markets expect 54.7, up from 54.5 in September. The key detail is the prices paid index, which jumped to 77.9 last month; if cost pressures stay high, markets may conclude the Fed still needs to stay tight.
Published Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 02:58 GMT · The actual result will be added here around 15:30 GMT
US ISM Manufacturing PMI · Oct 2026
Due Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 15:00 GMT
Key points
- 1Markets expect the October ISM Manufacturing PMI at 54.7 (Newsquawk, Trading Economics), up from 54.5 in September, which was 0.1 point lower than August. Manufacturing has now been in expansion for 9 straight months.
- 2In the September report, the prices paid index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9, new orders rose to 55.3 and employment was 52.7. Markets will watch prices and employment closely, with Nonfarm Payrolls due on Friday 6 Nov.
- 3As an early signal, the S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI for October came in at 56.0, a 53-month high, with factory selling prices rising at the fastest pace since July 2022, according to Newsquawk.
If it beats / misses forecasts
Headline above 54.7 or prices paid accelerating further
This would typically reinforce the picture of a hot economy and cost-driven inflation. The dollar and US Treasury yields would find support, gold (XAUUSD) could stay under pressure, EUR/USD could weaken and USD/JPY could move higher.
Headline misses and price pressures ease
This would typically ease pressure on the Fed to stay tight. The dollar could soften and gold could see renewed buying, but moves may be limited as markets await the US midterm elections on 3 Nov and Friday’s jobs report.
What is it and why does it matter?
ISM Manufacturing PMI is an index built from a survey of purchasing managers at factories across the US. It is released on the first business day of each month at 10:00 New York time. A reading above 50 means manufacturing is expanding; below 50 means it is contracting. Besides the headline, it includes sub-indices such as new orders, employment and prices paid, which markets use as a leading signal of producer inflation. Read the economic indicators guide →
This release matters more than usual because the Fed just held rates at 3.75–4.00% on 28 Oct, with 2 members dissenting in favour of a hike. Persistently high price readings therefore affect expectations for the December rate decision. See the week’s key events in the economic calendar and compare rates by country in central bank rates
Timeline
- Sep ISM manufacturing at 54.5, prices paid 77.9
- Fed holds at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote
- 1TRADER publishes this preview
- Oct ISM manufacturing released (forecast 54.7)
- Actual result updated on this page
- October Nonfarm Payrolls
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