The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its rate decision on Tuesday 3 Nov at 03:30 GMT. Most of the market expects a 0.25% hike from 4.60% to 4.85%, which would be the fifth hike this year, after Q3 underlying inflation came in above the RBA’s own estimate. The key question is whether the statement and Governor Bullock’s press conference leave the door open to more hikes or signal a pause.
Published Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 02:58 GMT · The actual decision will be added here around 04:00 GMT
RBA meeting · Policy rate, Nov 2026
Due Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 03:30 GMT
Key points
- 1Markets expect the RBA to raise rates by 0.25% to 4.85% from 4.60%. CommBank and Westpac both forecast a hike, while ASX short-term rate futures price roughly a 78–79% chance (Investing.com, Newsquawk).
- 2Q3 trimmed mean inflation rose 1.0% q/q, above the 0.8% the RBA projected in August, and 3.7% y/y, while the September monthly CPI accelerated to 4.3%, above the 4.2% forecast, on surging fuel prices.
- 3On the other side, the labour market is softening: September unemployment held at 4.7%, a 5-year high, and employment fell by 39,300. Markets will watch whether the RBA signals further hikes; ANZ sees a risk of rates reaching 5.10% in December or February.
If more hawkish / dovish than expected
Hike to 4.85% with a signal of more to come
The Australian dollar (AUD) would typically find support, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY likely to move higher, especially if the RBA raises its inflation forecasts and keeps a December or February hike on the table.
Hold at 4.60%, or a hike with a signal to pause
The AUD would typically weaken, as a hike is largely priced in. After the September meeting, AUD/USD slipped below 0.70 when Governor Bullock struck a cautious tone. The impact on the US dollar and gold is usually limited.
What is it and why does it matter?
The RBA decision sets the policy rate (Cash Rate Target) of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board, which meets 8 times a year for 2 days each. The decision is announced on the second day at 14:30 Sydney time (03:30 GMT), followed by Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 15:30 Sydney time (04:30 GMT). Read the central bank guide →
The RBA has already hiked 4 times this year for a total of 1.00% (Feb 3.85%, Mar 4.10%, May 4.35% and Sep 4.60%), with the September decision unanimous at 9–0. Another hike would widen Australia’s rate advantage over the Fed, which is holding at 3.75–4.00%, so the decision directly affects AUD pairs. Compare other central banks in the central bank rates table and see the week’s key events in the economic calendar
Timeline
- RBA hikes 0.25% to 4.60% in a 9–0 vote
- Sep unemployment steady at 4.7%, employment down 39,300
- Q3 CPI: trimmed mean 1.0% q/q, 3.7% y/y
- 1TRADER publishes this preview
- RBA rate decision (forecast 4.85%)
- Actual result updated on this page
- Governor Bullock’s post-meeting press conference
RBA sets the Aussie’s course as AUD/USD swings: get cash back on every lot
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