Spot gold (XAUUSD) fell more than 3% on Friday to close near $3,876, its lowest in roughly 12 months, amid a tech stock sell-off and expectations that the Fed may hike rates in December. WTI crude closed above $104 after OPEC+ kept its December output targets unchanged. Today, watch the US ISM manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT, followed by the RBA decision at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday
Updated Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 00:56 GMT · Prices as of the New York close on Fri 30 Oct 2026 · Gold this morning reflects Asian trading on 2 Nov
Key takeaways
- 1Gold fell more than 3% on Friday, breaking below $3,900 to close near $3,876, its lowest in roughly 12 months. December gold futures settled at $3,898.90, down 3.3%, and spot gold recovered to around $3,902 this morning Weekly recap
- 2US tech stocks were sold off, with the Nasdaq down 2.86%. The 2-year yield fell to 4.56%, the dollar (DXY) eased slightly to around 101.92, and markets price roughly a 76% chance of a Fed hike on 9 Dec
- 3WTI crude closed at $104.12 and Brent at $117.64, a 6-month high. On Sunday, the 7 core OPEC+ members kept their December output targets unchanged
- 4Today, watch the US ISM manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT, followed by the RBA at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, where markets expect a hike to 4.85%, and the US midterm elections
Today’s events, Mon 2 Nov 2026
- China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (Oct)Forecast 51.6 · Previous 52.1MED
- Germany retail sales (Sep)Forecast 0.4% · Previous 1.3% (m/m)LOW
- US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Oct final)Forecast 56.0 · Flash 56.0MED
- US ISM manufacturing PMI (Oct)Forecast 54.6–54.7 · Previous 54.5Prices index forecast 77.0 · Previous 77.9Due today 15:00 GMTHIGH
- US construction spending (Sep)Forecast 0.4% · Previous 0.9%LOW
- Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) speaksWatch for his view on a December hikeMED
- HIGH
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Friday 30 Oct 2026 (New York) · ▲▼ change vs the Thursday 29 Oct close · DXY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD from Capp Notes (Closing Look), checked against Trading Economics and Investrade (EUR/USD closed around 1.1158–1.1168, direction unclear) · AUD/USD from Trading Economics · Spot gold from Trading Economics (vs a Thursday close near $4,008), December gold futures settled at $3,898.90 · WTI futures settled at $104.12
Tech stocks sold off, gold breaks $3,900, oil holds above $100
On Friday (30 Oct) US stocks were sold off heavily: the Nasdaq fell 2.86%, the S&P 500 fell 1.82% and the semiconductor index (SOX) dropped 7.2%. Money flowed into bonds, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield down about 5bp to 4.56%, with the 10-year yield near 4.94%. Gold, however, got no support and was sold alongside stocks, breaking below $3,900 to its lowest since Oct 2025, according to Trading Economics, which cited high energy prices, inflation worries and selling pressure from tech stocks. Read the full week in our weekly forex recap
On the data front, the Chicago PMI for October came in at 55.3, below the 56.1 forecast and down from 58.8, while the Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 0.8%. Fed officials still sounded hawkish: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said further tightening is needed soon, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sees the need for at least two more 0.25% hikes. Markets price roughly a 76% chance of a Fed hike on 9 Dec, following Wednesday’s Fed decision to hold rates at 3.75–4.00%
In energy, WTI rose 2.1% to close at $104.12 and Brent rose 2.4% to $117.64, a 6-month high, amid reports of tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been all but closed since the US–Iran conflict began on 28 Feb. On Sunday (1 Nov), the 7 core OPEC+ members agreed to keep December output targets unchanged and set their next meeting for 29 Nov
“Further policy tightening is needed, and it should come soon.”
Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President · 30 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold breaks $3,900 to close at a roughly 12-month low
Gold (XAUUSD) closed Friday near $3,876, down more than 3% in a single day and its third straight losing session. This morning it recovered to around $3,902. The $3,900 level is now the first marker, followed by $4,000, which Rio Times says gold needs to reclaim. On the downside, the next psychological support is $3,800. If ISM is strong today and yields rise again, gold could come under further pressure See the latest gold analysis →
The Aussie holds above 0.70 ahead of Tuesday’s RBA
AUD/USD closed near 0.7032, still above 0.70, after Australian inflation for September accelerated to 4.3% y/y, above the 4.2% forecast. Markets price about a 79% chance that the RBA raises rates from 4.60% to 4.85%. With the hike largely priced in, direction may depend on whether the statement signals further hikes. Capital Street FX sees resistance at 0.7038 and 0.7175 and support at 0.6976 and 0.6900
The euro bounces from 1.1104 but stays near its lowest since May 2025
The euro (EUR/USD) touched 1.1104 during the week, its lowest since May 2025, before recovering to close near 1.1166, still down about 0.4% on the week. Capital Street FX sees resistance at 1.1220 and 1.1383 and support at 1.1104 and 1.1000. The key variable this week is Wednesday’s flash eurozone inflation for October, expected at 3.9% from 3.8%
What to watch today
Today’s main release is the US ISM manufacturing PMI for October at 15:00 GMT, expected at 54.6–54.7 from 54.5, with the prices index expected at 77.0 from 77.9. A high prices reading would reflect inflation pressure from energy costs. Then at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday comes the RBA decision. See all central bank meeting dates in our central bank rates table
- RBA decision (hike to 4.85% expected)Tue 03:30
- US midterm electionsTue 3 Nov
- Eurozone flash inflation (Oct) · ISM servicesWed 4 Nov
- BoE decision (hike to 4.00% expected)Thu 12:00
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) forecast ~55K · Unemployment 4.2%Fri 13:30
Our view
Markets enter the new week with gold under pressure. Even though yields fell on Friday, gold was still sold alongside tech stocks, while several Fed officials keep talking about rate hikes. This week the news is spread across every day, with ISM, the RBA, the midterm elections, the BoE and Nonfarm Payrolls, so prices may move in bursts around each release
- 1$3,900 is gold’s dividing lineIf gold cannot reclaim it, selling may continue, with the next support at $3,800
- 2Watch the ISM prices indexIf costs remain high, markets may grow more confident of a December Fed hike, which tends to support the dollar
- 3Geopolitical headlines still cause big swingsNews on Hormuz and Iran could jolt oil and gold, so reduce position size and use a stop loss on every trade
Gold breaks $3,900 with ISM due today: get cash back on every lot
Rebate per lot · Standard Plus account
Rebate per lot · Standard account
Rebate per lot
1TRADER is a partner (IB) of these brokers and earns a commission when you open an account through our links · % is the share of the IB commission returned to you, not a percentage of your deposit · Rates as of Sep 2026 · Compare rebates across brokers
Learn to trade free with 1TRADER
Sources (13)
- ISM – Manufacturing PMI Reports
- Capp Notes – Closing Look (30 Oct)
- Investrade – Market Review (30 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Currencies (30 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Gold (2 Nov)
- Rio Times – Gold (30 Oct)
- Trading Economics – US calendar (ISM · S&P PMI)
- Trading Economics – Week Ahead 2 Nov
- Newsquawk – Week Ahead 2–6 Nov
- MarketScreener – Week Ahead FX/Bonds (1 Nov)
- Capital Street FX – Support and resistance (31 Oct)
- The National – OPEC+ holds December output targets (1 Nov)
- Al Jazeera – Hormuz/Iran (31 Oct)
Risk warning: Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news summary is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
Compiled by the 1TRADER editorial teamEditorial policy and sourcesFull risk disclosureReport an error
Read more
