WTI crude fell 7.4% to close at $96.46 after Iran signalled it is ready to negotiate with the US, while spot gold (XAUUSD) recovered about 1.9% to around $3,948 from a one-year low. At 03:30 GMT today, watch the RBA decision, where markets expect a hike to 4.85%. JOLTS is due later today, and the US holds its midterm elections
Updated Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 01:05 GMT · Prices as of the New York close on Mon 2 Nov 2026
Key takeaways
- 1WTI crude fell 7.4% to close at $96.46 and Brent fell 7.6% to $104.77 after Iranian state media reported that the Supreme Leader authorized the government to negotiate with the US Read yesterday’s breaking news
- 2Gold recovered about 1.9% to around $3,948 after hitting a one-year low near $3,870 on Friday. Cheaper oil eased inflation worries, and the 10-year yield fell about 3bp to around 4.90%
- 3US ISM manufacturing for October came in at 55.5, above forecast, but prices paid eased to 75.2. Markets still price about a 75% chance of a Fed hike in December
- 4Today, the RBA at 03:30 GMT is expected to hike to 4.85%, the highest since 2008. The Aussie slipped below 0.70 ahead of the meeting. JOLTS follows at 15:00 GMT
Today’s events, Tue 3 Nov 2026
- Japan market holiday (Culture Day)Yen liquidity may be thinner in Asian hoursLOW
- RBA decision + Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP)Forecast 4.85% · Current 4.60%ASX futures price about an 83% chance of a hike · 30 of 32 economists in a Reuters poll expect a hikeRead the preview →Due today 03:30 GMTHIGH
- RBA Governor Michele Bullock press conferenceListen for signals on further hikes or a pauseMED
- US JOLTS job openings (Sep)Forecast ~7.1M · Previous 7.08MWatch the quits rate as a wage signalDue today 15:00 GMTHIGH
- US factory orders (Sep)Forecast 1.2% · Previous 0.1% (m/m)LOW
- US midterm electionsResults start coming in from early Wednesday GMTHIGH
Market overview
Approximate prices after the New York close on Monday 2 Nov 2026 · ▲▼ change vs the Friday 30 Oct close · Currencies and gold from Trading Economics, checked against investingLive · Kitco reported spot gold near $3,945.80 · December WTI settled at $96.46 according to Rigzone
Oil plunges 7% on Iran talks news, gold bounces back
On Monday (2 Nov) oil prices tumbled: December WTI settled at $96.46, down 7.4%, and Brent closed at $104.77, down 7.6%, according to Rigzone, after Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported that the Supreme Leader authorized the government to pursue talks with the US, and reports said Trump wants the negotiations to continue. Trend-following funds also cut their Brent long positions, adding to the selling. Read the timeline in yesterday’s breaking oil news
Gold (XAUUSD) was supported by cheaper oil and a roughly 3bp drop in the 10-year yield to around 4.90%. Kitco said spot gold rose 1.84% to around $3,945.80 and silver gained 3.67% to around $50.80. Meanwhile, US ISM manufacturing for October came in at 55.5, above forecast and up from 54.5, while US stocks were weighed down by selling in AI names, with the S&P 500 down 0.41% and the Nasdaq down 0.96%. Markets still price about a 75% chance of a Fed hike in December, which may cap gold’s gains
“The risk premium is draining out of both crude oil and European natural gas.”
Darrell Fletcher, Bannockburn Capital Markets · 2 Nov (via Rigzone, paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold rebounds above $3,900 but faces resistance at $3,978
Gold recovered to around $3,948 after hitting a one-year low near $3,870 on Friday, according to Trading Economics. Kitco sees resistance at $3,978 and $4,035 and support at $3,817. If oil stays weak and yields keep falling, gold may see continued buying, but if the talks stall or JOLTS comes in strong, gold could come under pressure again See the latest gold analysis →
WTI breaks $100 and closes below $97
WTI closed at $96.46, down from Friday’s $104.12 close. The $100 level may now act as key psychological resistance. Direction from here depends mainly on US–Iran talks headlines: progress could push prices lower, but if the talks stall, prices could rebound sharply
The Aussie slips below 0.70 ahead of today’s RBA
AUD/USD closed near 0.6995, down about 0.5% even as the broader dollar weakened. With a hike largely priced in, direction may depend on the statement and new forecasts in the SMP. Business Recorder (citing Reuters) says 0.70 is support being tested, with the 200-day moving average near 0.7058 as resistance
What to watch today
The first event of the day is the RBA decision at 03:30 GMT, where markets expect a 0.25% hike to 4.85%, the highest since 2008. This meeting includes the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) with new forecasts, followed by a press conference at 04:30 GMT. US JOLTS is due at 15:00 GMT. See all central bank meeting dates in our central bank rates table
- US midterm election results come inWed
- US ISM services (Oct)Wed 15:00
- BoE decision (hike to 4.00% expected)Thu 12:00
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)Fri 13:30
Our view
Monday’s markets were driven by US–Iran talks headlines. The sharp drop in oil eased inflation worries and supported gold, but a strong ISM keeps markets convinced the Fed may hike in December. Today brings both the RBA and the US midterm elections, so prices may be volatile in both the Asian and US sessions
- 1The RBA is the big event in Asian hoursA hike is largely priced in, so Bullock’s tone and the new forecasts may matter more than the rate decision itself
- 2Oil is still the inflation wildcardThe talks are far from settled. If they stall, oil could rebound sharply and weigh on gold again
- 3Be careful around the election resultsResults come in from early Wednesday GMT, and the dollar and gold could spike. Consider reducing position size and always use a stop loss
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Sources (11)
- RBA – Reserve Bank of Australia
- BLS – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
- Rigzone – Oil settlement prices (2 Nov)
- Kitco – Gold/silver support and resistance (2 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Currencies (2 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Gold (2–3 Nov)
- investingLive – Americas FX wrap (2 Nov)
- Business Recorder (Reuters) – Aussie ahead of the RBA (2 Nov)
- RBAWatch – RBA hike odds (3 Nov)
- Trading Economics – US calendar (JOLTS · Factory Orders)
- Investing.com – JOLTS Job Openings
Risk warning: Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news summary is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
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