ISM releases the US services index (ISM Services PMI) for October on Wednesday 4 Nov at 15:00 GMT. The market expects around 54.7, down from 54.9 in September. The main focus is the prices paid index, which rose to 74.0 last month, and the employment index, ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
Published Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 23:47 GMT · The actual result will be added here around 15:30 GMT
US ISM services PMI · Oct 2026
Due Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 15:00 GMT
Summary
- 1The market expects the October ISM services index at 54.7 (Newsquawk; Economic Weekly sees 54.8), compared with 54.9 in September, which was down 0.5 points from August but still in expansion territory above 50.
- 2In the September report, prices paid rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, employment moved back above 50 at 50.1 and new orders were 59.8. The market will watch these two sub-indices closely because Nonfarm Payrolls is due on Friday 6 Nov at 13:30 GMT.
- 3Earlier signals: October ISM manufacturing came in at 55.5, above forecast, while S&P Global’s flash services PMI eased slightly but output prices kept accelerating, according to Newsquawk’s summary.
Above / in line / below forecast
Headline above 54.7, or prices paid accelerates past 74.0
This typically reinforces the view that the services economy remains strong and inflation pressure is still high. The dollar and US Treasury yields would find support, gold (XAUUSD) could come under pressure, EUR/USD could weaken and USD/JPY could move higher.
Headline around 54.7 as expected
The market has already priced in the headline number, so the initial reaction tends to be limited. The next move would depend on prices paid and employment, and many traders may wait for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls before taking large positions.
Headline below 54.7 and prices paid slows
This typically eases pressure on the Fed to tighten further. The dollar could weaken, gold could see renewed buying and EUR/USD could move higher. But as long as the index stays above 50 the services sector is still expanding, so the market impact may be limited.
What is this release and why does the market care
ISM Services PMI is an index built from a survey of purchasing managers at services businesses across the US. It is released early each month at 10:00 New York time (currently 15:00 GMT). A reading above 50 means the services sector is expanding and below 50 means it is contracting. The sub-indices the market watches most are prices paid (a signal of services inflation) and employment (a leading signal for the labour market). Read the economic indicators guide →
This release matters more this time because the Fed has just held rates at 3.75–4.00% with two members dissenting in favour of a hike. Services make up most of the US economy, so persistently high prices paid affect expectations for the December rate decision. See the week’s key events on the economic calendar and compare rates by country on the central bank rates page
Timeline
- Sep ISM services comes in at 54.9, prices paid 74.0
- Fed holds rates at 3.75–4.00%, 10–2 vote
- Oct ISM manufacturing comes in at 55.5
- 1TRADER publishes this preview
- Oct ISM services (forecast 54.7)
- Actual result updated on this page
- October Nonfarm Payrolls
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