US JOLTS job openings for September jumped to 7.52 million, well above forecast, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to around 4.97%. The dollar strengthened against the yen, while spot gold (XAUUSD) eased to around $3,930. US midterm election results are starting to come in, with eurozone inflation due later today, followed by ADP and ISM services
Updated Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 01:20 GMT · Prices as of the New York close on Tue 3 Nov 2026
Key takeaways
- 1September JOLTS came in at 7.523 million openings, above the 7.10 million forecast. Quits rose to about 3.4 million, and the 10-year yield climbed about 7bp to around 4.97%
- 2The dollar strengthened against the yen, with USD/JPY up about 0.5% to around 158.72. Gold fell about 0.4% to around $3,930 after an intraday low of $3,893
- 3The RBA hiked rates to 4.85% on a 6–3 vote, and the Aussie fell about 0.5% to around 0.6964
- 4US midterm election results are coming in today. Eurozone inflation is due at 10:00 GMT, followed by ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT
Today’s events, Wed 4 Nov 2026
- New Zealand unemployment rate, Q3 (released Tue 3 Nov)Actual 5.7% · Forecast 5.5% · Previous 5.6%MED
- US midterm election results (coming in)Polls began closing around 00:00 GMT, with results coming in throughout the dayCBS News projects Jon Ossoff (Democrat) wins the Georgia Senate raceHIGH
- Eurozone flash inflation (Oct)Forecast 3.9% · Previous 3.8%Watch core inflation (previous 2.5%)Read the preview →Due 10:00 GMTHIGH
- MED
- US Treasury quarterly refunding announcementBarclays expects auction sizes to stay unchangedMED
- US ISM services PMI (Oct)Forecast 54.7 · Previous 54.9Watch prices paid (previous 74.0) and employmentRead the preview →Due today 15:00 GMTHIGH
- EIA weekly crude inventoriesOil is still swinging on Iran headlinesLOW
Market overview
Approximate prices after the New York close on Tuesday 3 Nov 2026 · ▲▼ change vs the Monday 2 Nov close · Currencies and gold from Trading Economics · Reuters reported spot gold at $3,927 at 14:06 ET · December WTI settled at $96.09 according to Rigzone
JOLTS beats forecasts, lifting yields and weighing on gold
On Tuesday (3 Nov) the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported September job openings at 7.523 million, above the 7.10 million forecast. Hires were around 5.4 million and quits rose to about 3.4 million, a sign of worker confidence. September factory orders also came in at +1.8%, beating the 1.2% forecast. The 10-year yield rose about 7.2bp to around 4.97%, and markets now price about a 79% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, according to CME FedWatch
The dollar gained most against the yen and the Aussie, while the euro and pound were little changed. Gold fell to an intraday low of $3,893 before recovering to close around $3,930. Oil swung on conflicting Iran headlines, including reports of progress in talks and a WSJ report that the US struck Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz. WTI eventually settled at $96.09, down 0.4%, extending Monday’s sharp drop. US stocks recovered, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq up about 0.8%. Midterm results are now coming in: CBS News projects that Democrat Jon Ossoff wins the Georgia Senate seat, while prediction market Polymarket gave Democrats about a 67% chance of winning both chambers (as of 29 Oct, per FP Markets). Catch up on yesterday in Forex News 3 Nov
“Conflicting headlines are whipsawing oil prices, and technical trading is likely to amplify the swings.”
Rebecca Babin, CIBC Private Wealth · 3 Nov (via Rigzone, paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Yields weigh on gold, but it holds above $3,890
Gold closed around $3,930, down from Monday’s $3,947 close, according to Trading Economics. It tested $3,893 intraday before buyers stepped back in. The next support is Friday’s close near $3,876, a one-year low, while resistance sits at $3,947 and $3,978. The World Gold Council (WGC) also cut its 2026 gold investment demand forecast to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes. If ISM comes in strong today and yields keep rising, gold could be pushed down to test support See the latest gold analysis →
Dollar/yen edges closer to 160
USD/JPY closed around 158.72, up about 0.5%, making it the dollar’s strongest pair as yield spreads widened after JOLTS. The 160 level is a psychological resistance the market is watching closely. If prices approach it quickly, the risk of a response from Japanese authorities rises. On the downside, support sits at Monday’s close near 157.94
The Aussie weakens after a split RBA hike
AUD/USD closed around 0.6964, down about 0.5%, even though the RBA delivered its fifth hike of the year, because the 6–3 vote suggests the board is starting to disagree about further hikes. 0.7000 is the first resistance, and the 200-day moving average near 0.7058, cited by Business Recorder (citing Reuters) on 2 Nov, is the next. If US data keeps the dollar strong, the Aussie may stay under pressure below 0.70
What to watch today
Early in the day, markets will follow the US midterm election results as they come in. An outcome that differs from prediction-market pricing could jolt the dollar and yields. Eurozone flash inflation is due at 10:00 GMT, with markets expecting 3.9%. ADP follows at 13:15 GMT, then the Treasury refunding plan at 13:30 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT, expected at 54.7 from 54.9. See all central bank meeting dates in our central bank rates table
- BoE decision (hike to 4.00% expected)Thu 12:00
- Nonfarm Payrolls Oct (forecast 55K)Fri 13:30
Our view
Tuesday’s markets refocused on strong US economic data. The much stronger-than-expected JOLTS made markets more convinced the Fed may hike in December, lifting yields and the dollar, while gold came under pressure but held above $3,890. Today brings the election results, eurozone inflation and US services data, so prices may stay volatile throughout the day
- 1The election is the early-session wildcardIf results match prediction-market pricing, the impact may be limited, but a surprise could trigger sharp moves in the dollar and gold
- 2ISM may set the direction for yieldsThe 10-year yield is already close to 5%. Another strong reading could weigh on gold and push USD/JPY toward 160
- 3Oil is still swinging on Iran headlinesTalks headlines and strike reports keep alternating. Consider reducing position size and always use a stop loss
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Sources (13)
- BLS – JOLTS, September 2026 (3 Nov)
- RBA – Monetary Policy Decision (3 Nov)
- investingLive – Americas wrap: JOLTS / yields / stocks (3 Nov)
- Kitco (Reuters) – Gold / FedWatch / WGC (3 Nov)
- Rigzone – Oil settlement / Qeshm (3 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Currencies (3 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Gold
- CBS News – Georgia Senate race (3 Nov)
- Thailand Business News – FP Markets / Polymarket (29 Oct)
- Newsquawk – Week in Focus 2–6 Nov (ISM / NFP / Refunding)
- FinanceCalendar – ADP / Eurozone CPI 4 Nov
- investingLive – NZ Q3 unemployment (4 Nov)
- Business Recorder (Reuters) – Aussie ahead of the RBA (2 Nov)
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