US JOLTS job openings jumped to 7.52 million in September, far above forecast, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to around 4.97%. The dollar firmed against the yen and spot gold (XAUUSD) slipped to around $3,930. US midterm election results are coming in, with eurozone inflation, ADP and ISM services due later today.
Updated Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 01:20 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Tue 3 Nov 2026
Key takeaways
- 1September JOLTS came in at 7.523 million openings vs 7.10 million expected; quits rose to about 3.4 million and the 10-year yield rose about 7bp to around 4.97%
- 2The dollar firmed against the yen, with USD/JPY up about 0.5% to around 158.72; gold fell about 0.4% to around $3,930 after an intraday low of $3,893
- 3RBA hiked rates to 4.85% on a 6–3 vote; the Aussie fell about 0.5% to around 0.6964
- 4US midterm results are coming in; eurozone inflation at 10:00 GMT, then ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT
Today’s events, Wed 4 Nov 2026
- New Zealand unemployment rate Q3 (3 Nov, released)Actual 5.7% · forecast 5.5% · previous 5.6%MED
- US midterm election results (coming in)Polls began closing around 00:00 GMT; results will come in throughout the dayCBS News projects Jon Ossoff (Democrat) wins the Georgia Senate raceHIGH
- Eurozone flash inflation (Oct)Forecast 3.9% · previous 3.8%Watch core inflation (previous 2.5%)Read analysis →Due 10:00 GMTHIGH
- US ADP private payrolls (Oct)Forecast about 65K · previous 90KA lead-in to Friday’s Nonfarm PayrollsMED
- US Treasury quarterly refunding announcementBarclays expects auction sizes to be kept unchangedMED
- US ISM services PMI (Oct)Forecast 54.7 · previous 54.9Watch prices paid (previous 74.0) and employmentRead analysis →Due 15:00 GMTHIGH
- EIA weekly crude inventoriesOil is still swinging on Iran headlinesLOW
Market overview
Approximate prices after the New York close, Tue 3 Nov 2026 · ▲▼ vs Monday 2 Nov close · FX and gold from Trading Economics · Reuters reported spot gold at $3,927 at 14:06 ET · December WTI settled at $96.09 per Rigzone
Hot JOLTS lifts yields and pressures gold
On Tuesday (3 Nov) the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported September job openings at 7.523 million, above the 7.10 million forecast. Hires were about 5.4 million and quits rose to about 3.4 million, a sign of worker confidence. September factory orders also beat at +1.8% vs 1.2% expected. The 10-year yield rose about 7.2bp to around 4.97% and markets priced a rate hike in December at about 79% per CME FedWatch.
The dollar gained most against the yen and the Aussie, while the euro and pound were little changed. Gold hit an intraday low of $3,893 before recovering to close near $3,930. Oil swung on conflicting Iran headlines, from reports of progress in talks to a WSJ report that the US struck Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz. WTI finally settled at $96.09, down 0.4%, extending Monday’s sharp drop. US stocks recovered, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq up about 0.8%. Midterm results started coming in this morning: CBS News projects Democrat Jon Ossoff wins the Georgia Senate seat, while prediction market Polymarket gave Democrats about a 67% chance of winning both chambers (29 Oct data via FP Markets). For yesterday’s overview, see Forex News 3 Nov.
“Conflicting headlines are whipsawing oil prices, and technical trading is likely to amplify the swings.”
Rebecca Babin, CIBC Private Wealth · 3 Nov (via Rigzone, paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold pressured by yields but holds above $3,890
Gold closed near $3,930, down from Monday’s $3,947 close per Trading Economics, after testing $3,893 intraday and attracting buyers. The next support is Friday’s close near $3,876, a 1-year low, with resistance at $3,947 and $3,978. The World Gold Council (WGC) also cut its 2026 gold investment demand forecast to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes. If ISM is strong today and yields keep rising, gold could be pushed down to test support Latest gold analysis →
USD/JPY edges toward 160
USD/JPY closed near 158.72, up about 0.5%, the dollar’s strongest pair as yield spreads widened after JOLTS. 160 is the psychological resistance markets are watching; a fast approach raises the risk of a response from Japanese authorities. Support below is Monday’s close near 157.94
Aussie slips after a split RBA hike
AUD/USD closed near 0.6964, down about 0.5%, even though the RBA delivered its fifth hike of the year, because the 6–3 vote shows the board is starting to split on further hikes. 0.7000 is first resistance, followed by the 200-day moving average near 0.7058 cited by Business Recorder (citing Reuters) on 2 Nov. If the dollar stays strong on US data, the Aussie may stay pressured below 0.70
What to watch today
During the day, markets will follow the US midterm election results as they come in; an outcome different from prediction markets could jolt the dollar and yields. At 10:00 GMT comes eurozone flash inflation, forecast 3.9%. ADP follows at 13:15 GMT, the Treasury refunding at 13:30 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT, forecast 54.7 vs 54.9. See all central bank meeting dates in our central bank rates table.
- BoE decision (hike to 4.00% expected)Thu 12:00 GMT
- Nonfarm Payrolls Oct (forecast 55K)Fri 13:30 GMT
Our view
On Tuesday markets refocused on strong US economic data. The much stronger-than-expected JOLTS print made markets more convinced the Fed could hike in December, lifting yields and the dollar, while gold was pressured but held above $3,890. Today brings election results, eurozone inflation and US services data, so prices could be very volatile throughout the day
- 1Election results are the swing factor during the dayIf results match prediction markets the impact may be limited, but a surprise could trigger sharp moves in the dollar and gold
- 2Today’s ISM could set the direction for yieldsThe 10-year yield is already near 5%; more strong data could pressure gold and push USD/JPY toward 160
- 3Oil is still swinging on Iran headlinesWith talks and strike headlines alternating, consider smaller position sizes and a stop loss on every order
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Sources (13)
- BLS – JOLTS Sep 2026 (3 Nov)
- RBA – Monetary Policy Decision (3 Nov)
- investingLive – Americas wrap: JOLTS / yields / stocks (3 Nov)
- Kitco (Reuters) – Gold / FedWatch / WGC (3 Nov)
- Rigzone – Oil settlement prices / Qeshm (3 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Currencies (3 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Gold
- CBS News – Georgia Senate race (3 Nov)
- Thailand Business News – FP Markets / Polymarket (29 Oct)
- Newsquawk – Week in Focus 2–6 Nov (ISM / NFP / Refunding)
- FinanceCalendar – ADP / eurozone CPI 4 Nov
- investingLive – New Zealand unemployment Q3 (4 Nov)
- Business Recorder (Reuters) – Aussie ahead of RBA (2 Nov)
Risk warning: Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news summary is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
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