Spot gold (XAUUSD) edged up to around $3,935 on Wednesday morning after falling about 0.5% on Tuesday and touching a low of $3,893 as the dollar and US Treasury yields rose. Markets price a roughly 78% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. Today the focus is on the US midterm election results, where Democrats lead in early counts, followed by ADP and ISM services later in the day.
Updated Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 03:00 GMT · Spot gold price as of 4 Nov 2026 · 00:24 GMT (Spot, Reuters)
vs Tuesday’s close · On Tuesday 3 Nov spot gold fell about 0.5% to around $3,927 (14:06 ET) after touching a low of $3,893.31, while December gold futures settled at $3,940.40, down 0.7% (Kitco/Reuters)
Key points for gold today
- 1Spot gold is near $3,935 (+0.2%) this morning after falling about 0.5% on Tuesday to an intraday low of $3,893.31, still stuck below the psychological $4,000 level
- 2CME FedWatch puts the odds of a December Fed rate hike at about 78% after September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.52 million, above forecast, lifting the dollar and yields
- 3Early US midterm results show Democrats leading in both chambers (SCB). Forex.com analysts say a Democratic Congress could weigh on the dollar and support gold
- 4Resistance $3,971–3,982 and $4,000; support $3,885–3,904. ADP is due at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT today, with NFP on Fri 6 Nov at 13:30 GMT
3 factors driving gold
- FedWatchHigh bets on a December Fed hike weigh on gold
September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.52 million, above expectations, pushing the dollar and US yields higher. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a December Fed hike at about 78–79%. Blue Line Futures says the stronger dollar and higher yields are the main pressure on gold (Kitco, Reuters)
- ElectionDemocrats lead early midterm results
Early US midterm results suggest Democrats lead in both the Senate and the House, while the dollar index eased in the Asian morning (SCB). Forex.com says full Democratic control of Congress could weigh on the dollar and be positive for gold, but results are not yet official
- OilSofter oil eases inflation worries
Oil fell to a 3-week low as markets watched talks to end the wars in Ukraine and with Iran (Kitco). Reuters says softer oil supported gold this morning. The World Gold Council reports central banks bought a net 321 tonnes of gold in Q3, the fastest pace since late 2024
Support and resistance levels to watch
| $4,074–4,083 | R3 | Second resistance zone per Mitrade |
| $4,000 | R2 | Psychological level; FXEmpire says gold needs a weekly close above it before extending gains |
| $3,971–3,982 | R1 | First resistance (FXEmpire R1 at $3,981.88) |
| $3,935 | NOW | Latest spot gold price, 00:24 GMT (Reuters) |
| $3,885–3,904 | S1 | First support per Mitrade, near Tuesday’s low of $3,893 |
| $3,829–3,849 | S2 | Next support; below it lies $3,780–3,800 |
Levels as of 3 Nov 2026, based on analysis from Mitrade and FXEmpire. Not a trading recommendation
If gold rises / if it falls
Breaks above $3,971–3,982
Next targets are the psychological $4,000 and the $4,074–4,083 zone per Mitrade. FXEmpire says a weekly close above $4,000 is needed to open the way higher. Supportive factors: a Democratic Congress weakening the dollar, or softer-than-expected ADP and ISM data
Breaks below $3,885
Selling could test $3,829–3,849 and $3,780–3,800 per Mitrade. FXEmpire warns a break below $3,800 could lead to deeper losses. Headwinds: strong jobs data, further gains in yields and rising bets on a Fed hike
Levels as of 3 Nov 2026, based on analysis from Mitrade and FXEmpire. Not a trading recommendation
Today’s events that could move gold
- US midterm election resultsMarkets are watching whether Democrats win the House and Senate, which matters for the dollarHIGH
- Eurozone inflation (Oct flash)Forecast 3.9% vs 3.8%Read analysis →MED
- US ADP private payrolls (Oct)Continuum Economics expects 65K vs 90K previouslyHIGH
- US ISM services PMI (Oct)Forecast 54.7 vs 54.9; a jump in prices paid could lift the dollar and pressure goldRead analysis →HIGH
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Sources (6)
- Reuters via MarketScreener – Gold firms on softer oil prices (4 Nov, 00:24 GMT)
- Kitco – Gold edges lower again as dollar, yields strengthen (3 Nov)
- Mitrade – Gold analysis, support and resistance (3 Nov)
- FXEmpire – Gold Price Forecast (3 Nov)
- Siam Business News – SCB: early election results/JOLTS (4 Nov)
- Continuum Economics – ADP Preview
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read it.
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