Spot gold (XAUUSD) extended gains to around $4,131 on Thursday morning, up about 1.7% after jumping roughly 3.3% on Wednesday as Democrats won control of both chambers of the US Congress. The dollar and Treasury yields fell, and a sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation worries, but markets still price about a 79% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. Tonight the focus is on the BoE decision at 12:00 GMT and US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT.
Updated Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 02:31 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning 5 Nov 2026 (about 02:25 GMT)
vs Wednesday 4 Nov close near $4,060 · On Wednesday gold jumped about 3.3% from $3,930 after the US midterm election results and moved back above $4,000 (Trading Economics, Kitco)
Key points for gold today
- 1Spot gold extended gains to around $4,131 (+1.73%) this morning after jumping about 3.3% on Wednesday to close near $4,060, though it is still down about 0.81% over the past month
- 2Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate according to AP projections. The dollar index (DXY) eased to around 101.30, the 10-year yield fell to around 4.88% and WTI crude dropped about 8.3% to around $88
- 3CME FedWatch still puts the odds of a December Fed rate hike at about 79% as markets await Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday
- 4Resistance $4,187–4,227 support $4,104, $4,068 and $3,975 · Tonight watch the BoE at 12:00 GMT and US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT
3 factors driving gold
- VOTEDemocrats sweep Congress, dollar weakens
The US midterm results were decisive: Democrats won majorities in both the House and the Senate according to AP projections. Markets read this as adding pressure to end the war with Iran. The dollar index (DXY) closed Wednesday near 101.48, down about 0.4%, and is around 101.30 this morning, supporting dollar-priced gold (Trading Economics)
- 10YLower yields and oil ease inflation pressure
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.88%, Kitco reports, while WTI crude closed near $88.12, down about 8.3%. Trading Economics says lower oil prices could ease inflation pressure and near-term rate-hike worries, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold
- FEDMarkets still see high odds of a December Fed hike
Despite gold’s strong rally, CME FedWatch still puts the odds of a Fed rate hike at the December meeting at about 79%, according to Trading Economics. If tonight’s US labor data and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls come in strong, yields could rebound and weigh on gold. Michele Schneider of MarketGauge sees $3,940 as key support; a break below could open the way to deeper losses (Kitco)
Support and resistance levels to watch
| $4,227 | R2 | Upper edge of the $4,187–4,227 resistance zone per Trading Central (via Mitrade) |
| $4,187 | R1 | Lower edge of the same zone, near the $4,200 level Kitco sees as an upside target |
| $4,131 | NOW | Latest price (Trading Economics, about 02:25 GMT) |
| $4,104 | S1 | The $4,104–4,115 zone Trading Central flagged as second resistance; price is now above it |
| $4,068 | S2 | Kitco’s former first resistance ($4,068.17), near Trading Central’s $4,074–4,083 zone |
| $3,975 | S3 | Kitco’s first support ($3,975.31), in line with Trading Central’s $3,970–3,980 zone |
Levels as of 4–5 Nov 2026, based on analysis from Kitco and Trading Central (via Mitrade). Not a trading recommendation
If gold rises / if it falls
Holds above $4,104
Price could test the $4,187–4,227 resistance zone, which includes the $4,200 level Kitco sees as an upside target. Supportive factors: higher-than-expected US jobless claims and a further decline in yields and the dollar
Breaks below $4,104
Profit-taking after two days of strong gains could send price back to $4,068, then $3,975, Kitco’s first support. Headwinds: strong US labor data tonight, or a rebound in yields ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls
Levels as of 4–5 Nov 2026, based on analysis from Kitco and Trading Central (via Mitrade). Not a trading recommendation
Thursday 5 Nov 2026 events that could move gold
- BoE decision and Monetary Policy Report (Nov)Markets expect a hike to 4.00% from 3.75%. The decision affects the pound and the dollar, which feeds through to goldRead analysis →HIGH
- US initial jobless claims (weekly)Labor data ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls; a higher-than-expected reading could weigh on the dollar and support goldMED
- US productivity and unit labor costs (Q3 preliminary)Unit labor costs feed into the inflation outlookMED
- US Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate (Oct) · 6 NovThe week’s biggest release and the main driver of the odds of a December Fed hikeRead analysis →HIGH
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