Breaking: Democrats Take Senate, Gold Tops $4,000, Dollar Falls 0.5%

The Associated Press (AP) has called the US Senate for the Democrats, according to PBS NewsHour around 04:40 GMT. Forbes said AP made the call after Josh Turek beat Ashley Hinson in Iowa, putting the Democrats on 51 seats to the Republicans’ 39, with a net gain of 6 seats, more than the 4 they needed. Other key wins included Sherrod Brown in Ohio, James Talarico in Texas, Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire.

In the House of Representatives, CNN and CBS have projected a Democratic majority, but AP had not yet made an official call when PBS reported. Markets are therefore pricing in Democratic control of both chambers, which would make President Trump’s legislative agenda much harder to pass.

Spot gold (XAUUSD) reacted most clearly, rising about 2% to around $4,009 an ounce, TokenPost reported around 06:00 GMT. Breaking The News also reported gold up 2% after the Democrats took the Senate, as the dollar and bond yields fell. Earlier, Reuters reported gold near $3,947 (+0.5%) around 04:15 GMT, while Euronews reported around 05:00 GMT the yen near 157.63 per dollar, the euro near 1.1249 and sterling up 0.4% at about 1.3460.

The key question now is whether gold can hold above $4,000, which Matt Simpson of StoneX sees as major resistance. Reuters, citing CME FedWatch, said markets still price about a 78% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, which weighs on gold. Later today come ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT. For today’s gold overview see Gold Price Today 4 Nov 2026.

The vote count from the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 Nov turned in the Democrats’ favour faster than markets expected. The National reported that CNN and CBS projected the Democrats had won a majority in the House of Representatives, as early results showed them flipping more than the three seats they needed. In the Senate, Reuters reported that Roy Cooper won in North Carolina and Annie Andrews won in South Carolina, a state Trump carried by nearly 18 points two years ago, giving the Democrats two of the four seats they needed to gain to control the chamber. Prediction markets began to price in the Democrats controlling both chambers.

Markets reacted immediately. The dollar index (DXY) fell about 0.5% to around 101.34, the yen strengthened 0.7% to 157.64 per dollar, EUR/USD rose 0.5% to around 1.1251 and sterling gained 0.4% to around 1.3470. In equities, the Nikkei, just back from a holiday, fell about 3.5% and South Korea’s Kospi dropped about 3.6% after being up more than 3% earlier in the day. S&P 500 futures fell about 1.1% and Nasdaq futures about 1.9–2.0%.

If the Democrats control the House, they will be able to block President Trump’s legislative agenda and open investigations into administration policy. Markets therefore see fiscal policy and new measures that need Congress as harder to pass, so investors cut their holdings of the dollar and US stocks, especially tech shares that had rallied strongly. The yen was supported by broad dollar weakness.

However, Chris Weston of Pepperstone told Reuters that a narrow “blue wave” may already be largely priced in. Earlier in the session spot gold (XAUUSD) rose only about 0.3% to around $3,950, still held back by expectations that the Fed could raise rates. See the latest rates on our central bank rates page.

First was the Senate result, which AP has now called for the Democrats (see the 06:15 GMT update above). Next is the official House result: if the Democrats control both chambers, the dollar could stay under pressure. Later today markets also await US data: ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT, ahead of Friday’s NFP. See all release times in our economic calendar, the data preview in US ISM Services Preview and this morning’s market overview in Forex News 4 Nov 2026.