October NFP came in at 165K, far above forecast. The dollar (DXY) ended Friday up about 0.7% and markets raised the odds of a December Fed hike back to about 77–80%. Gold (XAUUSD) eased about 1% to around $4,045. This week’s highlight is US CPI on Tuesday, while several Fed officials speak today.
Updated Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 23:30 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Fri 6 Nov 2026
Key takeaways
- 1October NFP rose 165K, above the 65K forecast. Unemployment fell to 4.1% and average earnings rose 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y
- 2DXY closed near 102.28, up about 0.7%. The 10-year yield rose to around 4.86% on Friday and markets lifted the odds of a December Fed hike to about 77–80%
- 3Gold eased about 1% to around $4,045 but still gained about 4–5% on the week. The euro, pound and Aussie fell about 0.6–0.9%, while USD/JPY rose to around 158.47
- 4US data are light today. Watch Fed speeches from Bowman at 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT ahead of US CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT
Today’s events Mon 9 Nov 2026
- China CPI inflation (Oct)Forecast 0.8% y/y · Previous 0.9% y/yReleased with the producer price index (PPI)MED
- Eurozone Sentix investor confidence (Nov)Previous 2.7LOW
- Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) speaksWatch for her view on a December hike after the strong NFPToday 13:40 GMTMED
- Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) speaksSame time as US wholesale inventories (Sep), previous 0.5%MED
- NY Fed consumer inflation expectations (Oct)Watch 1-year-ahead inflation expectationsLOW
- Andrew Bailey (BoE Governor) speaksLate Monday GMT · after the BoE hiked rates to 4.00% on 5 NovMED
Market overview
Approximate prices after the New York close, Friday 6 Nov 2026 · FX and % changes from Trading Economics · DXY, WTI and yields per The Closing Print · Spot gold $4,045 per FinanceFeeds · % rounded and may differ slightly by price source
NFP beats forecasts, dollar rebounds, gold slips from $4,087
On Friday (6 Nov), October nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 165,000 jobs, well above the roughly 65,000 markets expected (per FinanceFeeds). The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m, or 3.1% y/y. Read the details in our October NFP analysis. The preliminary November UMich consumer sentiment index came in at 51.0, up from 48.0. More in our November UMich report
Markets added back bets that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at the 8–9 Dec meeting, with CME FedWatch odds rising to about 77–80% from about 67% on Thursday, as compiled by FinanceFeeds. The 10-year yield rose to around 4.86% on Friday. DXY gained about 0.7% to close near 102.28, the euro fell to around 1.1151, the pound to around 1.3355, and USD/JPY rose to around 158.47. US stocks recovered part of Thursday’s heavy losses: the Nasdaq gained about 1.1% and the S&P 500 about 0.3%, while the Dow fell about 0.5%. Look back at the previous day in Forex News 6 Nov
Gold was pressured by the firmer dollar and higher yields, easing about 1% to around $4,045 from around $4,087, but it still gained about 4–5% on the week after the US midterm election results. WTI crude closed near $90.34, down about 13% on the week on hopes for US–Iran talks, with reports that Iran sent a proposal via Qatar. For the full week in review, see Weekly Forex Recap 2–6 Nov
Asset by asset
Gold dips after NFP but holds above $4,000
Gold closed near $4,045, down about 1% as the strong NFP lifted the dollar and yields. FinanceFeeds, citing FXEmpire levels, puts support near $4,022 and $3,992 and resistance near $4,051 and $4,089, with $4,135 as Thursday’s high. If Tuesday’s CPI comes in above forecast, gold could be pushed down to test support; if inflation cools, it could climb back to test $4,089. See the latest gold analysis →
Euro slips as the dollar rebounds
EUR/USD closed near 1.1151, down about 0.6% as the dollar rebounded after NFP. The psychological 1.1200 level and Thursday’s close near 1.1223 are resistance, with psychological support at 1.1100. Eurozone GDP on Friday is a factor this week, but the main direction may depend on US CPI.
USD/JPY climbs back above 158
USD/JPY closed near 158.47, up about 0.5% as the dollar rebounded after NFP. 158.00 is now first support, followed by Thursday’s close near 157.66. Above, psychological resistance sits at 159.00 and 160.00. If stock selling returns, the yen could find support again. Watch the BoJ Summary of Opinions early Tuesday.
What to watch today
There is no high-impact US data today, so markets will listen to Fed officials after the strong NFP, starting with Michelle Bowman at 13:40 GMT and Austan Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT, followed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at 17:25 GMT. The highlight of the week is October US CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, expected to rise 0.3% m/m, slowing from 0.6%. See all central bank meeting dates in our central bank rates table
- US CPI (Oct) 13:30 GMTTue 10 Nov
- US bond market closed (Veterans Day)Wed 11 Nov
- UK GDP Q3 (preliminary)Thu 12 Nov
- US PPI (Oct)Fri 13 Nov
Our view
The much stronger-than-expected NFP led markets to price in a December Fed hike again, so the dollar rebounded to a weekly gain, while gold slipped from around $4,087 but held above $4,000. Tuesday’s CPI this week may show whether the dollar’s rebound can continue.
- 1Today’s Fed speeches may set the tone before CPIIf several officials speak in the same direction, the dollar and yields could move ahead of the actual data
- 2Iran news is still the swing factor for oilIf talks progress, oil could fall further and ease inflation pressure; if they stall, prices could rebound sharply
- 3Can gold hold above $4,022?If it breaks, the next support near $3,992 could be tested. Ahead of major data, reducing position size and using a stop loss can help manage risk
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Sources (8)
- The Closing Print – Stock close / DXY / Yields / Oil / NFP (6 Nov)
- FinanceFeeds – Gold / Fed hike odds / Iran (7 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Currencies (6 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Australian dollar
- Trading Economics – Crude oil
- Trading Economics – Economic calendar 9–10 Nov
- TradingCharts – Economic calendar 9 Nov
- LiteFinance – Weekly calendar 9–15 Nov
Risk warning: Trading Forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
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