The University of Michigan (UMich) US consumer sentiment index, preliminary November reading, released on Friday 6 Nov, came in at 51.0, above the 48.0 forecast and up from 48.0 in October, while consumers’ 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.3% from 4.7%. Better sentiment alongside cooling inflation expectations generally eases pressure on the Fed to tighten further, so the impact on the dollar and gold may be mixed and hinge on the CPI release on 10 Nov.
Published Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 23:50 GMT · Actual result updated Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 10:45 GMT
US UMich Consumer Sentiment · Nov 2026 (Preliminary)
Released Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 15:00 GMT
Post-release update: The preliminary November UMich consumer sentiment index came in at 51.0 above the forecast of 48.0 and up from 48.0 in October, while 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.3% (from 4.7%) and long-run expectations eased to 3.4% (from 3.5%)
Quick summary
- 1Markets expected the preliminary November UMich consumer sentiment index at around 47.0–48.0 (Economic Weekly forecast 47.0, Trading Economics 48), from 48.0 in October, a very low level compared with 53.6 in October last year.
- 2In the final October reading, the current conditions index fell to 46.7 from 50.9 while the expectations index rose to 48.8 from 46.3. Consumers’ 1-year-ahead inflation expectations stood at 4.7% (from 4.6%) and long-run expectations at 3.5% (from 3.4%).
- 3This release came after October NFP released at 13:30 GMT, so markets read the two numbers together. A further rise in consumer inflation expectations could add weight to the view that the Fed still needs to stay tight.
Above / in line / below forecast
Index above 48.0
This generally signals consumers are becoming less worried, a positive for the spending outlook. The dollar could find support, gold (XAUUSD) may come under mild pressure, EUR/USD could weaken and USD/JPY could edge higher. But if 1-year inflation expectations jump at the same time, markets may focus more on inflation.
Index around 47.0–48.0
The headline is already priced in, so the initial reaction is usually limited. Direction from here depends on the 1-year and long-run inflation expectations in the same report, the earlier NFP result, and the US October CPI on 10 Nov.
Index below 47.0
This generally reflects rising worries about living costs and jobs and could weigh on the spending outlook. The dollar could weaken, gold may attract buying, EUR/USD could edge higher and USD/JPY could dip. This release usually moves markets less than NFP and CPI.
What this event is and why markets care
The UMich consumer sentiment index comes from the University of Michigan’s survey of US consumers (Surveys of Consumers). It is released twice a month: a preliminary reading early in the month and a final reading late in the month, at 10:00 New York time (15:00 GMT now that US daylight saving time has ended). The index is split into current conditions and expectations, and includes consumers’ inflation expectations, which the Fed watches closely. Read the economic indicators guide →
This round matters because the Fed just held rates at 3.75–4.00% with two members dissenting in favour of a hike. Low sentiment shows consumers are still worried about prices, while higher inflation expectations could make the Fed hesitant to ease. See the week’s key events on the economic calendar and compare policy rates by country on central bank rates
Timeline
- UMich Oct preliminary comes in at 46.3
- UMich Oct final revised up to 48.0, 1-yr inflation expectations 4.7%
- Fed holds rates at 3.75–4.00%, 10–2 vote
- 1TRADER publishes the preview (this page)
- US Oct NFP comes in at 165K (forecast 65K)
- UMich Nov preliminary comes in at 51.0 (forecast 47.0–48.0)
- Actual result updated on this page
- US October CPI
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Sources (6)
- University of Michigan – Surveys of Consumers
- Trading Economics – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct 48.0, Nov forecast 48)
- Economic Weekly – weekly calendar (forecast 47.0, 10:00 ET)
- UNHYD – index components, Oct 2026
- Investing.com – Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- Charles Schwab – market overview and this week’s events
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