Democrats won control of both the US House and Senate, according to AP projections. The dollar weakened, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.89%, spot gold (XAUUSD) jumped about 3.3% to around $4,060 and WTI crude plunged about 8.3% to around $88 as markets bet the Iran war could wind down sooner. The BoE decision is due at 12:00 GMT today, with a rate hike expected.
Updated Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 00:30 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Wed 4 Nov 2026
Key takeaways
- 1Democrats won both chambers according to AP projections, gaining at least 7 Senate seats; the dollar (DXY) fell about 0.4% to around 101.48 and the 10-year yield eased to around 4.89%
- 2Gold jumped about 3.3% to around $4,060, back above $4,000; silver gained almost 5% to around $52
- 3WTI crude plunged about 8.3% to around $88.12; Brent fell about 8.7% to around $94.60 as markets see more pressure to end the Iran war
- 4Today: BoE at 12:00 GMT, with a hike to 4.00% expected, followed by US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT; Nonfarm Payrolls are due tomorrow
Today’s events, Thu 5 Nov 2026
- MED
- BoE decision and Monetary Policy Report (Nov)Expected 4.00% · current 3.75%Watch the MPC vote splitRead the analysis →Due today 12:00 GMTHIGH
- US initial jobless claims (weekly)Week ending 31 OctLabour market data ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm PayrollsMED
- US productivity and unit labour costs (Q3 preliminary)Unit labour costs feed into the inflation outlookMED
Market overview
Approximate prices after the New York close, Wed 4 Nov 2026 · ▲▼ vs Tuesday close, 3 Nov · FX and gold from Trading Economics · WTI and Brent settlement prices from NYMEX/ICE as reported by The Asia Business Daily
Democrats sweep Congress: dollar slides, gold jumps, oil plunges
The US midterm results on Wednesday (4 Nov) were decisive. Democrats won majorities in both the House and the Senate according to AP projections, gaining at least 7 Senate seats and about 18 House seats, as reported by Kitco. Markets read the result as raising pressure to end the Iran war, so the dollar (DXY) fell about 0.4% to around 101.48 and the 10-year yield dropped about 8bp to around 4.89%. Read yesterday’s breaking news: Democrats take both chambers, gold jumps, dollar slides
Oil fell the hardest. WTI settled around $88.12, down about 8.3%, and Brent settled around $94.60, down about 8.7%. The Asia Business Daily, citing MarketWatch, said Brent has fallen about 19.6% over three sessions, the steepest drop since April 2020. President Trump said there are no immediate plans to strike Iran, according to Trading Economics citing the Financial Times, while Vice President Vance said the Iran war was a key reason Republicans lost. Gold was supported by the weaker dollar and lower yields, closing around $4,060. US stocks rallied: the Dow Jones gained 3.03%, the S&P 500 rose 1.58% and the Nasdaq added 1.44%.
Economic data were mixed. October ADP employment rose 86K, above the 69K forecast, but ISM services fell to 54.5, below the 54.7–54.8 forecast; new orders slipped to 55.9 from 59.8 and prices paid eased to 73.0. In Europe, flash eurozone inflation for October accelerated to 4.0% from 3.8%, while core inflation held at 2.5%. Markets still price about a 79% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, according to CME FedWatch. Read the previous day’s overview: Forex News 4 Nov
“The initial risk-off reaction turned into a relief rally.”
Daniela Hathorn, Capital.com · 4 Nov (on Asian equities, via TheStreet, paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold back above $4,000, eyes a test of $4,068
Gold closed around $4,060, up about 3.3% from Tuesday’s close of $3,930 according to Trading Economics, a strong rebound after dropping to around $3,876, a roughly 12-month low, in late October. Kitco sees resistance near $4,068 and support near $3,975. If prices hold above $4,000, $4,100 could be the next target, but if the BoE or US labour data push yields back up today, gold could pull back to test support. See the latest gold analysis →
Oil falls for a third day, breaks below $90
WTI closed around $88.12, down about 8.3% for a third straight day and at a roughly one-month low according to Trading Economics, even though the EIA reported a crude draw of about 865,000 barrels, the fifth weekly decline in a row. $90 is now the first resistance, followed by Tuesday’s close near $96.09, with psychological support at $85. If talks with Iran stall, prices could rebound sharply.
USD/JPY eases with yields
USD/JPY closed around 157.88, down about 0.5% as yield spreads narrowed after the election. Tuesday’s close near 158.72 is the first resistance, and 160 remains the psychological level markets are watching. Below, psychological support sits at 157.00. If US labour data come in weaker than expected today, the yen could strengthen further.
What to watch today
Today’s highlight is the BoE decision at 12:00 GMT. Markets expect a 0.25% hike to 4.00%, the first move of this cycle, and will focus on the vote split and the new Monetary Policy Report. Before that, Norges Bank decides at 09:00 GMT with a hold at 4.50% expected, and at 13:30 GMT the US releases weekly jobless claims and productivity data. See all central bank meeting dates in our central bank rates table
- Nonfarm Payrolls Oct (forecast 55K · previous 29K)Fri 13:30 GMT
- US unemployment rate Oct (forecast 4.2%)Fri 13:30 GMT
Our view
A clear-cut election result has reduced political uncertainty and raised the odds that the Iran war winds down, so oil fell sharply, the dollar and yields eased and gold climbed back above $4,000. Today the focus shifts to the BoE and US labour data ahead of tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
- 1The BoE is the key driver for the pound todayA hike is already priced in; the vote split and guidance on further hikes may matter more than the rate itself
- 2$4,000 is the key level for goldIf yields keep easing, gold could test $4,068–4,100, but if yields rebound, prices could slip back to test support
- 3Oil is extremely volatileAfter three days of steep losses, Iran talks headlines could send prices sharply higher or lower; in conditions like this, smaller position sizes and a stop loss can help manage risk
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Sources (11)
- Kitco – Gold / election / support and resistance (4 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Gold / FedWatch (4 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Currencies (4 Nov)
- Trading Economics – US 10-year yield (4 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Crude oil / EIA / Trump (4 Nov)
- The Asia Business Daily – WTI / Brent settlement / Vance (5 Nov)
- TheStreet – US stock market close (4 Nov)
- StockTitan (CNBC) – AP election projections (4 Nov)
- ISM – Services PMI Oct 2026 (4 Nov)
- Trading Economics – ADP Oct / economic calendar (4 Nov)
- Newsquawk – Week in Focus 2–6 Nov (BoE / Norges / NFP)
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