US CPI for September came in at 3.7% y/y, above the 3.6% forecast and up from 3.4%, while core CPI printed 2.6%, above the 2.5% forecast, with a monthly gain of about 0.3% (forecast 0.2%). Hotter-than-expected inflation generally supports the dollar and yields, adds pressure on the Fed to stay tight, and tends to weigh on gold.
Published Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 01:20 GMT · Updated with actual Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 10:47 GMT
US CPI · Sep 2026
Released Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 12:30 GMT
Post-release update: CPI y/y came in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast · Core CPI 2.6%, above the 2.5% forecast
Summary
- 1The BLS was scheduled to release September CPI on 14 Oct at 12:30 GMT. The y/y forecast is 3.6% (Aug 3.4%), with m/m at 0.6% (Aug 0.4%) on higher oil prices.
- 2Core CPI is expected at 2.5% y/y (Aug 2.4%), but the monthly pace is expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. Core is the figure the market is watching most closely.
- 3Before the release, the market priced roughly a 20% chance of a Fed hike on 28 Oct and about 85–88% by December. The dollar (DXY) closed at 102.21 and gold (XAUUSD) traded around $4,158.
Above / below forecast
Core m/m at 0.3% or higher
The market may raise the odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct. The dollar and yields would tend to find support, and gold could be pushed down to test around $4,100.
Core m/m below 0.2%
This would support the view that one more Fed hike is enough. The dollar and yields would tend to weaken, and gold could return to test $4,200.
What is this release and why does the market care
CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the US consumer price index, which measures inflation in the goods and services households buy. It is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy, so it better reflects underlying inflation trends. Read the CPI guide →
The Fed has already hiked this cycle and is weighing when to hike again. The US 10-year Treasury yield is still around 5.22%. High oil prices are certain to lift headline inflation, so the market is focusing on core CPI to see whether price pressure is spreading to other categories. See the latest policy rates on the central bank rates page and other release dates on the economic calendar
Timeline
- New York Fed President Williams says one more rate hike this year would likely be appropriate
- 1TRADER publishes the preview (this page)
- Sep CPI comes in at 3.7% (forecast 3.6%)
- Actual result updated on this page
- US PPI and retail sales
- Fed meeting (FOMC), decision on 28 Oct at 18:00 GMT
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