Spot gold (XAUUSD) eased to around $4,165 on Tuesday morning, falling for a second day as the dollar held near an 18-month high and elevated oil prices driven by Middle East tensions kept inflation worries alive. Markets price about a 21% chance of a Fed hike in October but about 88% by December. The highlight is Wednesday’s US CPI.
Updated Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 02:54 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning 13 Oct 2026
Vs Monday 12 Oct close · Reuters reported spot gold near $4,164 (−0.2%) at 02:01 GMT, with December gold futures near $4,188 · Silver (XAG) near $60.0 (−0.5%)
Today’s key gold takeaways
- 1Spot gold is near $4,165 (−0.18%) this morning, extending Monday’s roughly 0.5% drop after touching a one-week high. It is still down about 3.1% over the past month.
- 2The dollar (DXY) is holding near 102.5, close to an 18-month high, while Brent crude is near $106 after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, adding to inflation worries.
- 3CME FedWatch puts the odds of an October Fed hike at about 21%, but about 88% by December. Markets await US CPI (Wed 14 Oct, 12:30 GMT) and PPI (Thursday).
- 4Resistance at $4,200 and the 100-day moving average near $4,256; support at $4,067 (two-month low) and the rising trendline near $4,002
3 factors driving gold
- USDDollar holds near an 18-month high
The dollar is steady near the 18-month high it reached on Monday, with the dollar index (DXY) around 102.54. That makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and is the main reason gold slipped for a second day (Reuters via Business Recorder, Investing.com).
- OILHigh oil from the Middle East adds to inflation worries
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s main airport pushed Brent crude close to $106 a barrel. Markets worry that inflation will stay high and the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, raising the cost of holding non-yielding gold. Investing.com notes gold has fallen by about a fifth since the US–Iran war began in late February.
- CPIMarkets still see low odds of an October Fed hike
CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hike at the October meeting at about 21% after soft jobs and consumer sentiment data, which has kept gold from falling sharply. But Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack thinks the Fed should move to a tighter stance fairly soon, and analyst Kyle Rodda says gold could come under more pressure if core CPI runs hotter than expected and markets add to October hike bets.
Support and resistance to watch
| $4,338 | R3 | 50-day moving average (SMA) |
| $4,256 | R2 | 100-day moving average (SMA), the first resistance in the analysis |
| $4,200 | R1 | Psychological level gold failed to hold on Monday |
| $4,165 | NOW | Latest price (Trading Economics, Asian morning) |
| $4,067 | S1 | Two-month low |
| $4,002 | S2 | Rising trendline, the key medium-term support |
Levels as of 12 Oct 2026, based on FXStreet analysis (14-day RSI near 47, below the 50 midline). Not trading advice.
If it rises / if it falls
Gets back above $4,200
The next levels are the 100-day moving average near $4,256 and the 50-day near $4,338. Supportive factors would be softer-than-expected US CPI, a weaker dollar or lower oil prices.
Breaks below $4,067
Selling could test the rising trendline near $4,002, which FXStreet sees as the key medium-term support. A break could open the way to a deeper correction. Downside risks are hotter-than-expected CPI or a further dollar rally.
Levels as of 12 Oct 2026, based on FXStreet analysis. Not trading advice.
Today’s events that move gold (GMT)
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaksMarkets watch his stance on an October hike.MED
- NFIB small business optimism (Sep)Forecast 98.0 vs 98.7LOW
- US existing home sales (Sep)Forecast 3.96M vs 3.98MLOW
- Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaksMED
- US CPI (Sep) · 14 OctTD Securities expects core CPI to rise about 0.20% m/m but sees upside risk.HIGH
Gold eases to $4,165 before CPI: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (5)
- Trading Economics – Gold (13 Oct, Asian morning)
- Business Recorder (Reuters) – Gold eases on firm dollar; spotlight on US inflation data (13 Oct)
- Investing.com – Gold slips near $4,160 as Middle East tensions fuel rate-hike concerns (13 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold Forecast: XAU/USD buyers retain control as the US CPI week begins (12 Oct)
- Forex Factory – Calendar 13 Oct
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read this.
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