The dollar (DXY) closed near 102.56, close to its highest since April 2025, on surging oil prices and hawkish Fed remarks. The euro (EUR/USD) slid to a 2026 low, while gold (XAUUSD) was sold to around $4,170. Today markets listen to Fed officials ahead of US CPI tomorrow at 12:30 GMT.
Updated Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 01:14 GMT · Prices as of New York close Mon 12 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1The dollar (DXY) closed near 102.56 (+0.33%), close to the 2026 high of 102.60, after WTI crude rose 1.48% to $93.21 on Middle East tensions
- 2The euro (EUR/USD) fell to a 2026 low near 1.1152 before closing at 1.1155 (−0.41%) amid French debt concerns
- 3Gold (XAUUSD) failed to break $4,200 and closed near $4,170 (−0.59%) on a firmer dollar and expectations of a Fed hike
- 4No high-impact data today; watch Waller at 07:45 GMT, Barkin and Collins. US CPI is out tomorrow at 12:30 GMT, forecast at 3.7% y/y
Today’s events Tue 13 Oct 2026
- RBA meeting minutes (Sep)Released · RBA cash rate 4.60%Makes the case to act promptly to keep inflation expectations anchoredMED
- Germany CPI Sep (final)Forecast 0.6% m/m · flash 0.6%LOW
- Fed Governor Waller speaksRate views ahead of CPIMED
- NFIB small business optimism (Sep)Forecast 98.0 · prior 98.7LOW
- ADP weekly employmentPrior 23.8KLOW
- MED
- Richmond Fed President Barkin speaksTue 17:00 GMTLOW
- Boston Fed President Collins speaksTue 20:00 GMTLOW
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Monday 12 Oct 2026 (New York) from investingLive, cross-checked with Trading Economics · DXY from Trading Economics · ▲▼ change from Friday 9 Oct
Oil surge and hawkish Fed push dollar near 2026 high
On Monday (12 Oct) the dollar rose against all seven major currencies. The dollar index closed near 102.56 (+0.33%), close to the 2026 high of 102.60, a level FXStreet said had not been seen since April 2025. The main support came from WTI crude, which rose 1.48% to close near $93.21 as Middle East tensions and Russia–Ukraine energy strikes returned, reviving concerns about energy-driven inflation. The euro slid to a 2026 low near 1.1152, while the Swiss franc was the weakest, down about 0.5%. The US bond market was closed for Columbus Day, so the 10-year Treasury yield still referenced Friday’s close of 5.24%.
Further support came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who said more tightening is still needed after the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% on 16 Sep. Even so, CME FedWatch still puts the odds of a hold at the 28 Oct meeting at about 83% (about 17% for a hike), so markets are waiting for September US CPI tomorrow, which is expected to accelerate to about 3.7% y/y from 3.4% on energy prices. This morning the RBA minutes made the case to act promptly to keep inflation expectations anchored, but the Aussie dollar (AUD/USD) still eased to around 0.6950.
“Further policy tightening is still needed, and there is concern that inflation expectations could become unanchored, even while acknowledging that lower-income households are under pressure.”
Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed President · 12 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold fails at $4,200, closes near $4,170 as dollar and oil rise
Gold was sold after failing to break $4,200, closing Monday near $4,170, down about 0.59%. FXStreet said a stronger dollar and high yields were the main pressure, though geopolitical risk still offers some support. A break below $4,150 could open further downside, while RoboForex sees key support at $4,066 and next resistance at $4,250. Latest gold news →
Euro breaks 1.12, hits 2026 low near 1.1152
EUR/USD fell from around 1.1217 to a 17-month low of 1.1152 before closing near 1.1155. ING sees support around 1.12 as fragile, while the French bond yield spread remains wide near its highs. The ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, and a Reuters poll expects a hold at the 29 Oct meeting followed by a 0.25% hike in December.
Yen weakens further as USD/JPY holds above 200-day average
USD/JPY closed near 158.64 (+0.21%), holding above the 200-day moving average at 158.54, according to investingLive. In Asian trading the pair held above 158.00 with Japanese markets closed. FXStreet said the risk of Japanese intervention continues to cap the upside.
What to watch today
No high-impact data today. The focus is on Fed officials’ remarks, starting with Governor Waller at 07:45 GMT, followed by Richmond Fed President Barkin at 17:00 GMT and Boston Fed President Collins at 20:00 GMT. Also due are NFIB at 10:00 GMT and US existing home sales at 14:00 GMT, forecast at 3.96 million. Big US bank earnings season also starts today. See latest central bank rates for context.
- US CPI (Sep)Wed 12:30 GMT
- Australia employment (Sep)Thu 00:30 GMT
- UK GDP (Aug)Thu 06:00 GMT
- PPI · retail sales · US jobless claimsThu 12:30 GMT
- Fed Chair Warsh speaksFri 03:30 GMT
Our view
Markets are refocusing on energy-driven inflation. Higher oil gives the dollar both safe-haven demand and support from rate expectations, leaving the euro and gold on the losing side. Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI, remarks from Waller and other Fed officials today may set the short-term direction.
- 1Dollar near its 2026 highDXY around 102.60 is the key hurdle; if it breaks, FXStreet sees the next level at 103.30
- 2Gold still below $4,200Near support is $4,150; a break could open further downside, and rebounds toward $4,200 may be sold
- 3Be careful ahead of CPIPrices often swing sharply around the release; reduce position size and use a stop loss on every trade
Dollar at 2026 high before CPI: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (11)
- Federal Reserve – Speeches
- RBA – Minutes of the Monetary Policy Board
- investingLive – Americas FX news wrap (12 Oct)
- investingLive – US CPI preview (11 Oct)
- FXStreet – FX Today: US Dollar hits 17-month high (12 Oct)
- FXStreet – RBA Minutes (13 Oct)
- FXStreet – EUR/USD / ECB (12 Oct)
- Yahoo Finance – Dollar 18-month high / FedWatch (12 Oct)
- RoboForex – Gold levels 12–16 Oct
- Trading Economics – Currencies
- Forex Factory – Calendar 13 Oct (forecasts)
Risk warning: Trading Forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
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