Forex news today: the dollar index (DXY) slipped 0.37% to close near 102.21 after New York Fed President Williams said one more rate hike this year should be enough. Gold (XAUUSD) stayed soft near $4,158 and WTI crude held near $94. Markets await US September CPI at 12:30 GMT, forecast at 3.6%.
Updated Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 01:21 GMT · prices as of the New York close Tue 13 Oct
Key takeaways
- 1New York Fed President Williams said one more rate hike this year looks appropriate and he sees no need to hike in 2027. The dollar weakened against all major currencies.
- 2DXY closed at 102.21 (−0.37%). The 10-year Treasury yield was near 5.22%, and EUR/USD bounced to around 1.1198 from near a 17-month low.
- 3Gold closed near $4,158 (−0.33%) despite the softer dollar, as markets still price an 85–88% chance of a Fed hike by December.
- 4Today at 12:30 GMT, US Sep CPI is forecast at 3.6% y/y, Core 2.5%. The Fed’s Beige Book follows at 18:00 GMT.
Today’s events · Wed 14 Oct 2026
- MED
- German wholesale prices (Sep)Forecast 0.6% · previous 0.9% (m/m)LOW
- MED
- MED
- Canada building permits (Aug)Forecast 2.9% · previous −17.3%LOW
- US CPI (Sep)Forecast 3.6% · previous 3.4% (y/y)Core forecast 2.5% · 0.2% m/mRead analysis →Due today 12:30 GMTHIGH
- LOW
- MED
Market overview
Approximate closing prices from Trading Economics, cross-checked with FXStreet and BabyPips · ▲▼ change on Tuesday 13 Oct 2026 · WTI is the Trading Economics reference price (FXStreet reported around $94.20, up more than 1%)
Williams signals the hiking cycle is nearly over, dollar eases before CPI
On Tuesday (13 Oct), New York Fed President John Williams told Bloomberg that one more rate hike this year looks appropriate, but he sees no need to keep hiking in 2027 and does not view the labor market as a driver of inflation. The dollar weakened against all major currencies, with DXY closing near 102.21, down about 0.37% after hitting an 18-month high near 102.6 the previous day. The 10-year yield was near 5.22%. Fed Governor Waller said the rise in long-term yields is weighing on demand for homes and cars, which is not what the Fed intended, while Cleveland Fed President Hammack still thinks the Fed should keep tightening fairly quickly.
WTI crude held near $94 after reports that Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed options on Iran, a merchant ship was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi-led forces struck Houthi-linked targets in Yemen. High oil prices are the main reason markets expect headline CPI to accelerate today. In Asia, chip stocks were sold off and South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 5%, while the RBA minutes showed the board voted unanimously to raise rates by 0.25% to 4.60% and left the door open to further hikes.
“The labor market is not a driver of inflation, and outside energy and AI we don’t see broad-based price pressures.”
John Williams, New York Fed President · 13 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset breakdown
Gold soft despite weaker dollar as markets still eye a December Fed hike
Gold closed Tuesday near $4,158, down about 0.33% (Trading Economics), after touching a weekly low near $4,150 despite the weaker dollar. FXStreet noted that expectations of at least one more Fed hike are still capping gold. First resistance is $4,200, then the 100-day moving average near $4,252, with support at $4,100 and $4,050. Latest gold analysis →
Euro back above 1.12 but still near a 17-month low
EUR/USD closed near 1.1198, up about 0.38% on the weaker dollar, and traded around 1.1205 this morning. RSI near 29–31 shows stretched selling, but French fiscal worries still weigh on the euro as France’s borrowing costs hit their highest in almost 25 years. ING sees a risk of a test of 1.1100, while markets fully price an ECB hike in December.
Yen firms slightly, but USD/JPY holds near 158
USD/JPY closed near 158.34, down about 0.17%. Japan’s September producer prices rose 6.8% y/y, below forecast but still high enough for markets to see a possible BoJ hike in Dec–Jan. Concerns over the Takaichi government’s fiscal policy continue to weigh on the yen, and Trading Economics notes that 160 is where Japanese authorities intervened before.
What to watch today
BoE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde speak earlier in the day. The main event is US September CPI at 12:30 GMT. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.6% y/y from 3.4% on higher oil prices, while Core CPI is forecast at 2.5% from 2.4% and to slow to 0.2% m/m. Core is therefore the key number for the odds of a Fed rate hike at the 27–28 Oct meeting. Read the full preview: US Sep CPI analysis The Fed’s Beige Book is due at 18:00 GMT.
- Australia employment (Sep)Thu 00:30
- US PPI and retail salesThu 12:30
- Fed Chair Warsh speaks at IMF/World Bank meetingsFri
Our view
Markets head into CPI as the Fed starts signaling its hiking cycle is nearly over. The dollar has eased from its 18-month high, but oil prices kept high by Middle East tensions will surely push headline inflation up. Core CPI is the decider today: if it slows as expected, markets may grow more confident that one more Fed hike will be enough.
- 1Watch Core over headlineHeadline is driven by oil prices the market already knows. Core at 0.2% m/m is the key dividing line.
- 2Gold still capped below $4,200Gold must hold above $4,200 before eyeing $4,252. A break below $4,150 opens the next support at $4,100.
- 3Be careful around the releaseAt 12:30 GMT spreads may widen and prices may swing sharply. Reduce position size and set an SL on every order.
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Sources (14)
- BLS – Consumer Price Index (Aug 2026 and Sep release schedule)
- Forex Factory – calendar 14 Oct (forecasts)
- FinancialJuice – US CPI Prep (12 Oct)
- FXStreet – Williams (13 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold / Yield / WTI (13 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold / rate hike odds (14 Oct)
- FXStreet – EUR/USD / France (14 Oct)
- FXStreet – EUR/USD support and resistance (13 Oct)
- FXStreet – USD/JPY (12 Oct)
- BabyPips – Market Recap (13 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Currencies
- Trading Economics – Gold / FedWatch
- Trading Economics – Crude Oil
- Trading Economics – USD/JPY / Japan PPI
Risk warning: Trading Forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all your capital. This news summary is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
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