Spot gold (XAUUSD) eased to around $4,117 on Wednesday morning, extending Tuesday’s slide to a close near $4,121 even as the dollar weakened. Oil prices remain high on US–Iran tensions, keeping inflation worries alive, and markets still price a more than 90% chance of a Fed hike by December. Gold stays below $4,150, close to $4,100 support.
Updated Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 02:30 GMT · Gold prices as of the Asian morning of 21 Oct 2026 (about 02:25 GMT)
On Tuesday 20 Oct gold closed near $4,121–4,122, down about 0.5% for a fourth straight session (Trading Economics, FXStreet), even as the dollar (DXY) eased to around 101.71
Key gold takeaways today
- 1Spot gold eased to around $4,117 (−0.12%) this morning after Tuesday’s close near $4,121–4,122, down about 0.5%, and is down about 5.9% over one month
- 2Oil remains elevated, with Brent closing near $108.79, fuelling inflation worries. CME FedWatch puts the chance of a Fed hike at the 27–28 Oct meeting at about 16%, but by December at about 93.5%
- 3Resistance at $4,170 and the 100-day moving average near $4,235; support at $4,100, $4,065 and $4,000
- 4Today brings UK CPI at 06:00 GMT and EIA crude inventories at 14:30 GMT; US–Iran talks remain the key driver for oil and gold
3 factors driving gold
- OILUS–Iran tensions keep oil high and stoke inflation worries
Brent closed Tuesday near $108.79 a barrel (SCB). It eased on hopes for talks but remains elevated after Iran said it had not fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and could extend the blockade to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal. FXStreet and Trading Economics see high oil prices driving inflation worries, the main source of pressure on gold.
- FedMarkets still expect a Fed hike in December
The Fed raised rates by 0.25% in September to 3.75–4.00%. Markets expect a hold at the 27–28 Oct meeting, with CME FedWatch putting the chance of a hike at only about 16.1%, but the chance of a hike by December at about 93.5%. Higher-for-longer rates weigh on non-yielding gold (FXStreet, ttb).
- DXYA softer dollar and yields limit gold’s losses
The dollar index (DXY) fell about 0.2% to around 101.71, and the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped about 2bp to 5.11% after September housing starts came in at 1.221 million, below forecast. This helped keep gold above $4,100, but was not enough to lift it back above $4,150. See the full market picture in today’s Forex news
Support and resistance levels to watch
| $4,275 | R3 | Upper Bollinger Band (daily chart) |
| $4,235 | R2 | 100-day moving average (SMA) |
| $4,170 | R1 | Middle line of the 20-day Bollinger Band |
| $4,117 | NOW | Latest price (TradingView about 02:25 GMT) |
| $4,100 | S1 | Level sellers want to see broken decisively |
| $4,065 | S2 | Lower Bollinger Band |
| $4,000 | S3 | Psychological support where buyers have stepped in on every dip |
Levels as of 20–21 Oct 2026 based on analysis from FXStreet, not trading advice
If it rises / if it falls
Reclaims $4,170
The next levels are the 100-day moving average near $4,235 and the upper Bollinger Band near $4,275. Supportive factors would be progress in US–Iran talks that pushes oil lower, along with a further drop in the dollar and yields.
Breaks below $4,100
Selling could test the lower Bollinger Band near $4,065, then the $4,000 psychological level. The 14-day RSI near 41 is not yet oversold. Pressure would come from another oil spike or Fed officials signalling a hike.
Levels as of 20–21 Oct 2026 based on analysis from FXStreet, not trading advice
News that moves gold today (Wed 21 Oct 2026 · GMT)
- UK CPI (Sep) y/yForecast 3.4% · Previous 3.1%A hotter-than-expected print could add to worries that central banks must stay hawkishMED
- US EIA crude oil inventories (week to 16 Oct)Weekly EIA reportOil is currently the main source of pressure on goldMED
- FOMC decision (18:00 GMT)27–28 Oct meeting: markets expect a hold at 3.75–4.00%, but price about a 93.5% chance of a hike by DecemberHIGH
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Sources (8)
- TradingView – OANDA:XAUUSD (21 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Gold (21 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold declines below $4,150 as elevated oil prices reinforce prospects of further Fed tightening (20 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold just failed at $4,150. This is the next stop (20 Oct)
- FXStreet – CME FedWatch (20 Oct)
- Siam Business News – SCB: DXY, Brent, gold (21 Oct)
- Mitihoon – ttb: FOMC outlook (21 Oct)
- U.S. Census Bureau – New Residential Construction (20 Oct)
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read it.
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