Eurostat will publish the second estimate of eurozone Q3 GDP on Friday 13 Nov at 10:00 GMT. Markets expect annual growth of 1.3%, unchanged from the preliminary flash (which showed +0.4% q/q), alongside Q3 employment data. The key question is whether the figure is revised, which usually has a limited impact on the euro compared with US PPI due at 13:30 GMT.
Created Thu 12 Nov 2026 · 23:45 GMT · The actual result will be updated on this page around 10:30 GMT
Eurozone GDP Q3 2026 (second estimate)
Due Fri 13 Nov 2026 · 10:00 GMT
Quick summary
- 1The flash estimate on 30 Oct showed +0.4% q/q, above the 0.2% markets expected, and 1.3% y/y, up from 1.2% in Q2 (Q2 q/q growth was revised to +0.6%). The forecast for the second estimate is unchanged at 1.3% y/y, according to Trading Economics and InstaForex
- 2Countries diverged: Spain grew +0.6%, Germany +0.2% and Italy 0.0%, while France came in at −0.1%, and Ireland’s +5.5% lifted the aggregate. Markets are watching whether this revision changes the overall picture
- 3It is released together with the first Q3 employment figure. Both help markets assess the eurozone economy before the ECB, which held rates on 29 Oct, meets again on 17 Dec.
Above / in line / below forecast
GDP revised above 1.3% y/y (or above +0.4% q/q)
This would generally suggest the eurozone economy is stronger than thought, reducing the case for ECB easing. The euro could find support and EUR/USD and EUR/JPY could edge higher, while the dollar could weaken against the euro, which usually offers some support to gold (XAUUSD), though moves tend to be modest
Confirms 1.3% y/y and +0.4% q/q from the flash estimate
Markets have already priced this in, so the euro reaction is usually limited. The next move depends on the employment data released at the same time and on US PPI at 13:30 GMT, which matters more for the dollar and gold
GDP revised below 1.3% y/y (or below +0.4% q/q)
This would generally reinforce that growth remains fragile. The euro could weaken and EUR/USD could come under pressure as the dollar gains against the euro, which tends to weigh slightly on gold, though the overall impact on gold is usually limited compared with US data
What this release is and why markets care
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total value of goods and services produced in the eurozone. Eurostat publishes it in rounds: a preliminary flash about 30 days after the quarter ends, a second estimate about two weeks later that comes with employment data, and a detailed release the following month. Markets watch both quarterly (q/q) and annual (y/y) growth. Read the economic indicators guide →
The second estimate is usually revised only slightly from the flash, so its market impact tends to be smaller unless the revision is a surprise. This round matters because eurozone inflation in October accelerated to 4.0%. If growth holds up, the ECB has less reason to ease. The euro is the largest weight in the dollar index (DXY), so the effect can pass through to the dollar and gold. See this week’s key releases on the economic calendar and compare rates across countries on central bank rates
Timeline
- ECB held rates
- Q3 GDP flash printed +0.4% q/q (forecast 0.2%) · 1.3% y/y
- Eurozone Oct flash inflation printed 4.0%
- 1TRADER published this preview (this page)
- Q3 GDP second estimate and employment release
- Actual result updated on this page
- US Oct PPI
- Next ECB meeting
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Sources (8)
- Eurostat – Q3 2026 GDP flash +0.4% (30 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Eurozone GDP q/q and 13 Nov forecast
- Trading Economics – Eurozone GDP y/y and forecast
- ActionForex – Q3 GDP flash and country breakdown
- Il Sole 24 Ore – Eurozone GDP grows 0.4% in Q3
- GMK Center – Eurozone GDP +0.4% q/q in Q3
- InstaForex – Trader’s calendar 12–13 Nov (forecast 1.3% y/y)
- Finance Calendar – Release schedule 13 Nov 2026 (11:00 CET)
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