The minutes of the Fed’s September FOMC meeting showed most officials see one more rate hike before year-end as likely appropriate. The dollar index (DXY) held above 102, while gold (XAUUSD) was pushed down near $4,110, a roughly two-month low. Today at 12:30 GMT, markets watch US weekly jobless claims.
Updated Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 01:14 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Wed 7 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1Minutes of the 15–16 Sep FOMC meeting confirmed the 12–0 vote to raise rates to 3.75–4.00%, and most officials said one more hike before year-end may be appropriate
- 2The dollar index (DXY) closed at 102.23 (+0.39%); EUR/USD fell to around 1.1202, near a 17-month low
- 3Gold (XAUUSD) closed near $4,111, down about 1.3%, as the US 10-year yield stayed high around 5.28–5.30%
- 4Today, watch US weekly jobless claims at 12:30 GMT (forecast 200K) and remarks from Waller and Musalem; UMich follows tomorrow at 14:00 GMT.
Today’s events · Thu 8 Oct 2026
- Japan Economy Watchers indexForecast 46.7 · Previous 46.4LOW
- Germany trade balance (Aug)Forecast 19.0B · Previous 21.3BLOW
- ECB meeting accountsViews on inflation and oil pricesMED
- BoE Governor Bailey speaksAfter the 30-year gilt yield touched 6%MED
- US initial jobless claims (week to 3 Oct)Forecast 200K · Previous 197KContinuing: forecast 1,750K · previous 1,701KMED
- US wholesale inventories (Aug, final)Forecast 0.7% m/m · Previous 0.7%LOW
Market overview
Approximate closing prices for Wednesday 7 Oct 2026 (New York) from Trading Economics, cross-checked with FXStreet · ▲▼ vs previous day · Gold compared with the 6 Oct close near $4,164
Fed minutes signal more hikes, dollar holds 102, gold hits two-month low
On Wednesday (7 Oct), the US Federal Reserve released the minutes of its 15–16 Sep FOMC meeting, at which it voted 12–0 to raise rates by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%. The key point: most officials judged that one more rate hike before year-end would likely be appropriate, nearly all saw upside risks to inflation, and they viewed the labor market as close to full employment. Fed staff estimated August PCE at 3.8% y/y (core 3.4%). Markets read the tone as hawkish, so the dollar index (DXY) held above 102, closing near 102.23, close to its roughly 18-month high of 102.50, according to FXStreet.
The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.32%, near its highest since 2002, before easing to around 5.28% after a solid 10-year auction and softer oil prices, according to Trading Economics. A New York Fed survey showed consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.9%. CME FedWatch priced about a 78% chance of the Fed holding rates at the 28 Oct meeting, but the odds of at least one more hike by year-end stayed above 80%. WTI crude closed near $88.81, a roughly one-month low, before reports that the Pentagon was preparing options to strike Iran, and Tropical Storm Isaias shut some Gulf of Mexico production platforms. Read yesterday’s overview in Forex News 7 Oct
“Most participants judged that one more rate increase by year-end would likely be appropriate, but decisions would be made meeting by meeting based on incoming data.”
Minutes of the FOMC meeting, 15–16 Sep 2026 · released 7 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold drops to a two-month low after hawkish Fed minutes
Gold rose to around $4,165 early on Wednesday before selling off to close near $4,111, as the Fed minutes reinforced the case for another hike and long-term yields stayed high. Trading Economics noted prices were near their lowest since early August. The next supports are around $4,090 (the lower Bollinger band, per FXStreet) and $4,000, while resistance sits at $4,150 and the 100-day moving average near $4,265. See the latest gold analysis →
Euro slips back to 1.12 as the dollar recovers
EUR/USD rose to around 1.1275 on Tuesday as French fiscal worries eased, but fell back on Wednesday to close near 1.1202, down about 0.5%, as the dollar strengthened before and after the Fed minutes and Brent crude climbing back above $100 weighed on the eurozone economy. FXStreet sees support at 1.1160–1.1168 (the 17-month low and lower Bollinger band), while RSI is near oversold territory. Today, watch the ECB meeting accounts at 11:30 GMT.
Yen trades tightly near 158, intervention risk in focus
USD/JPY closed near 158.00, barely changed. Support from the dollar and yield differentials was offset by hawkish BoJ remarks and worries that Japanese authorities could intervene near 160. Levels to watch are the 50-day moving average near 157.70 and the 200-day near 158.53.
What to watch today
There is no high-impact data today. The main release is US weekly jobless claims at 12:30 GMT, with markets expecting 200K from 197K. Before that come the ECB meeting accounts at 11:30 GMT and BoE Governor Bailey at 12:15 GMT, while Fed officials Waller and Musalem are scheduled to speak (Musalem around 17:40 GMT Thursday). See the latest central bank rates or the full-week economic calendar
- UMich consumer sentiment (Oct, prelim)Fri 14:00
- Canada employment change (Sep)Fri 12:30
- US CPI (Sep)Wed 14 Oct
Our view
The Fed minutes did not contain much new, but they confirmed the Fed is still ready to hike once more before year-end as long as inflation stays high. That keeps the dollar firm around 102 and the 10-year yield near its highest in more than 20 years, which weighs on gold and the euro. Weekly jobless claims today and UMich on Friday will help show whether the dollar extends gains or consolidates.
- 1Let yields leadIf the 10-year yield holds above 5.3%, gold and the yen could stay under pressure
- 2Gold below $4,150Key supports are $4,090 and $4,000; rebounds toward $4,150 may meet selling
- 3Manage risk around the dataPrices may move fast at 12:30 GMT; reduce position size and set a stop loss on every order
Hawkish Fed minutes, dollar holds 102 · get cashback on every lot
Rebate per lot · Standard Plus account
Rebate per lot · Standard account
Rebate per lot
1TRADER is a partner (IB) of these brokers and earns a commission when you open an account through our links · % is the share of the IB commission returned to you, not a percentage of your deposit · Rates as of Sep 2026 · Compare rebates across brokers
Learn to trade free with 1TRADER
Sources (8)
- Federal Reserve – Minutes of the FOMC, 15–16 Sep 2026 (released 7 Oct)
- U.S. Department of Labor – Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
- CME FedWatch Tool
- FXStreet – Fed Minutes confirm another rate hike (7 Oct)
- FXStreet – Forex Today: Weekly Claims and Fedspeak (7 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Currencies / Gold / Crude Oil / US 10Y (7–8 Oct)
- Forex Factory – Calendar 8 Oct 2026
- investingLive – Market news 7–8 Oct
Risk warning: Trading Forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
Compiled by the 1TRADER editorial teamEditorial policy and sourcesFull risk disclosure
Read more
Related news
Forex NewsForex News 20 Oct 2026: Yields Jump to 5.15%, Gold Slips Below $4,150
Forex NewsGold Price Today 20 Oct 2026: XAUUSD Eases to $4,136, Below $4,150
Forex NewsThai Baht Today 20 Oct 2026open 33.59–33.60 steady dollar firms with Yield foreigners sold Thai stocks worth ahead of Fed
GoldBreaking: Houthis Strike Saudi Arabia, Brent Hits $111, Gold Below $4,100