Forex news today: US CPI rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast, with core up 0.3%. The dollar index (DXY) strengthened about 0.5%, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.99% and gold (XAUUSD) fell about 2.6% to around $4,032. The US bond market is closed today for Veterans Day.
Updated Wed 11 Nov 2026 · 01:00 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Tue 10 Nov 2026
Key takeaways
- 1US CPI rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast; core rose 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. The BLS did not publish a y/y figure this time
- 2The dollar index (DXY) strengthened about 0.5% to around 102.22 and the 10-year yield rose to around 4.99% after Waller said he could back a 0.50% hike if inflation keeps accelerating, and Logan backed at least two more hikes
- 3Gold fell about 2.6% to around $4,032 after dipping to around $4,021 intraday; the pound and Aussie dollar weakened about 0.7–0.8%
- 4The US bond market is closed today (Veterans Day) while stocks trade as normal. Next up: UK GDP Q3 on Thu at 07:00 GMT and US PPI on Fri at 13:30 GMT
Events Wed 11 – Thu 12 Nov 2026
- US bond market closed (Veterans Day)Stock markets open as normal · Thin liquidity in bonds · Canada’s bond market is also closedMED
- Germany HICP (Oct) finalExpected to confirm the flash +2.8% y/yLOW
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov)Oil demand–supply outlook after this week’s sharp drop in oil pricesMED
- RBNZ inflation expectations (Q4)Thu 12 Nov · Previous 2.34%LOW
- UK GDP Q3 (preliminary)Thu 12 Nov · Previous (Q2) +0.5%The pound slipped below 1.34 ahead of the releaseDue Thu 07:00 GMTHIGH
- US EIA crude oil inventories (weekly)Thu 12 Nov · Delayed from Wednesday because of the holidayMED
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Tuesday 10 Nov 2026 (New York) from Trading Economics · ▲▼ vs. Monday 9 Nov close · USD/JPY change calculated from the previous close (157.91) · Gold and oil are CFD prices, not official benchmark prices
Hotter CPI lifts the dollar and yields, gold drops to around $4,032
On Tuesday (10 Nov), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that October CPI rose 0.4% m/m, above the 0.3% forecast but slower than September’s 0.6%. Core CPI rose 0.3% vs 0.2% expected, its third straight 0.3% gain. According to Kitco’s summary, energy rose 0.7%, shelter 0.3% and food 0.5%. There is no official y/y figure this time because October 2025 data is missing due to the government shutdown. Read the details in our US CPI October analysis.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he could support a 0.50% rate hike at the 8–9 Dec meeting if inflation keeps accelerating, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan backed at least two more hikes, according to Trading Economics. Markets now almost fully price a 0.25% hike in December, and the odds of a 0.50% move rose to about 10.5% per CME FedWatch, as cited by Reuters. The dollar index (DXY) strengthened about 0.5% to around 102.22 and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.99% from around 4.90%.
Gold (XAUUSD) was sold hard, dipping to around $4,021 intraday, down about 2.8%, before closing around $4,032, down about 2.6%. Silver fell about 3.9% intraday. WTI crude slipped another 0.8% to around $86.17, near its lowest in about 11 weeks, on hopes of easing US–Iran tensions. Catch up on the previous day in Forex News 10 Nov.
Asset by asset
Gold falls back below $4,100 after hot CPI
Gold closed Tuesday around $4,032, down about 2.6% from around $4,139, giving back all of Monday’s gains. The intraday low around $4,021 is first support, followed by the psychological $4,000 level. If the dollar and yields stay firm, gold could be pushed down to test this zone. On the upside, Friday’s close around $4,070 and Monday’s close around $4,139 act as resistance. See the latest gold analysis →
Pound slips below 1.34 ahead of Thursday’s UK GDP
GBP/USD fell about 0.7% to around 1.3346 as the dollar firmed on CPI and Waller’s hawkish comments, even though BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli signalled continued tightening. 1.3400 and Monday’s close around 1.3437 act as resistance, while support sits around 1.3300 and 1.3250. Q3 GDP on Thursday at 07:00 GMT could trigger sharp swings in the pound.
USD/JPY climbs back to around 158.74
USD/JPY rose about 0.5% to around 158.74 from around 157.91 on Monday, tracking the sharp rise in US yields despite hawkish signals from the BoJ. 159.00 is the first resistance, then 160.00, where markets tend to watch for intervention. Support sits around 158.47 (6 Nov close) and 157.91.
What to watch today
Today (Wed 11 Nov) the US bond market is closed for Veterans Day while stock markets trade as normal, so liquidity may be thinner than usual and prices may react more easily to headlines. Germany’s final HICP is out at 07:00 GMT and OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report is due during the day, while EIA oil inventories are delayed to Thursday at 17:00 GMT. See all central bank meeting dates in the central bank rates table.
- UK GDP Q3 (preliminary)Thu 07:00 GMT
- EIA crude oil inventoriesThu 17:00 GMT
- US PPI (Oct) forecast +0.4%Fri 13:30 GMT
- Japan GDP Q3 (preliminary)Sun 23:50 GMT
Our view
With both headline and core CPI above forecast, markets are again considering that the Fed may need to hike more aggressively, so the dollar and yields rose together while gold lost all of Monday’s support. With the US bond market closed today, the main drivers may be Fed speakers and oil headlines.
- 1A 0.50% hike is the new variableIf other Fed officials echo Waller, the dollar could stay supported
- 2Gold in a $4,000–$4,070 rangeA break below or above this range may give a clearer short-term direction
- 3Watch for thin liquidityWith the US bond market on holiday, prices may jump on headlines; consider reducing position size and set a stop loss on every order
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Sources (11)
- BLS – Consumer Price Index (Oct 2026)
- Kitco – CPI details / gold (10 Nov)
- MINING.COM (Reuters) – Gold falls nearly 3% / FedWatch (10 Nov)
- Trading Economics – DXY / Waller / Logan (10 Nov)
- Trading Economics – US 10Y Yield (10 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Gold (10 Nov)
- Trading Economics – Crude Oil (10 Nov)
- Trading Economics – EUR / GBP / JPY / AUD (10 Nov)
- LiteFinance – Weekly economic calendar 9–15 Nov
- Newsquawk via Global-View – Week ahead 9–13 Nov
- Thrive – Calendar (Veterans Day / EIA)
Risk warning: Trading Forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
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