Spot gold (XAUUSD) edged up to around $4,212 on Monday morning, rising for a third straight day after a Russia–Ukraine deal to halt strikes on energy facilities pushed oil lower and eased inflation worries. Inflows into gold ETFs hit a four-year high, but gold is still capped by $4,225 resistance ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI.
Updated Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 02:42 GMT · Spot gold price as of 12 Oct 2026, Asian morning (around 02:35 GMT)
Vs Friday 9 Oct close · Gold gained about 1.3% last week (Investing.com) · Silver (XAG/USD) up 0.6% near $60.99 · Dollar (DXY) near 101.91, down 0.11%
Today’s key gold takeaways
- 1Spot gold rose to around $4,212 (+0.43%) this morning, up for a third straight day, though it is still down about 2% over the past month.
- 2The Russia–Ukraine deal to halt strikes on energy facilities knocked Brent crude about 1.2% lower, easing inflation worries, while inflows into gold ETFs hit a four-year high and China’s central bank bought gold for a 23rd straight month.
- 3CME FedWatch puts the odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct at about 17.7%, but December odds are as high as 84.1%, still a headwind for gold.
- 4Resistance at $4,225 and the 100-day moving average near $4,255; support at $4,170 and $4,055 · This week, watch US CPI (Wed 12:30 GMT)
3 factors driving gold
- ETFGold ETF inflows hit a four-year high
FXStreet, citing Bloomberg data, said inflows into gold-backed ETFs reached a four-year high, while the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 740,000 ounces of gold in September, its 23rd consecutive month of buying. TD Securities sees trend-following funds (CTAs) covering their gold shorts.
- WTIOil eases after Russia–Ukraine energy deal
Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities, sending Brent crude down about 1.2% this morning. Trading Economics said the pullback in oil eased inflation worries and supported gold, even though the Houthis struck Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia again on Sunday. See the big picture in today’s Forex news
- FedThe Fed still signals more hikes
St. Louis Fed President Musalem said further tightening is still needed to bring inflation back to 2%. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a December hike at about 84.1%, and ANZ warned that if inflation accelerates enough to force more Fed hikes, gold’s upside would be limited. The US 10-year Treasury yield remains high near 5.23%, and the US bond market is closed today (Columbus Day).
Support and resistance to watch
| $4,300 | R3 | 25 Sep high, the target if $4,240 is cleared (FXStreet, 9 Oct) |
| $4,255 | R2 | 100-day moving average (SMA) |
| $4,225 | R1 | 20-day Bollinger Band middle line |
| $4,212 | NOW | Latest price (Trading Economics, around 02:35 GMT) |
| $4,170 | S1 | First support at the downtrend-line breakout (FXStreet, 9 Oct) |
| $4,055 | S2 | Lower 20-day Bollinger Band, near the two-month low of $4,066 |
The 14-day RSI is at 47.08, slightly below the midline (FXStreet, 12 Oct).
If it rises / if it falls
Clears $4,225
The next level is the 100-day moving average near $4,255. If the $4,240 zone is cleared, FXStreet sees the 25 Sep high near $4,300 as the next target. Supportive factors would be softer-than-expected US CPI and a further pullback in oil.
Breaks below $4,170
Selling could test the lower Bollinger Band near $4,055, close to the two-month low of $4,066. FXStreet says buyers may return around that area. The main downside risk is hotter-than-expected CPI that lifts bets on Fed hikes.
Levels as of 9–12 Oct 2026, based on FXStreet analysis. Not trading advice.
Mon 12 Oct 2026 and this week’s events (GMT)
- US Columbus Day holiday: bond market closed (stocks open as usual)No US data tonight. Liquidity is thin, so prices may swing on Middle East headlines.LOW
- US CPI inflation (Sep)Forecast 3.6% y/y vs 3.4% previously. A hotter reading could lift the dollar and yields and weigh on gold.HIGH
- US retail sales and PPI (Sep)Rounds out the inflation picture ahead of the 27–28 Oct Fed meeting.HIGH
Gold up 3 days in a row, eyeing $4,225: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (7)
- Trading Economics – Gold (12 Oct, around 02:35 GMT)
- FXStreet – Gold drifts higher above $4,200 on surging ETF inflows (12 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold rallies to $4,200 as US yields retreat (9 Oct)
- Investing.com – Gold edges higher near $4,200 (12 Oct)
- BLS – CPI Release Schedule
- Federal Reserve – FOMC Calendar
- Newsquawk – Weekly Calendar 12–16 Oct
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read this.
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