Over the weekend the Houthis fired missiles at Riyadh’s airport, but Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. This morning WTI crude fell about 1.4% to around $90.55 and spot gold (XAUUSD) is back above $4,200. US and Japanese bond markets are closed today, so liquidity is thin as markets wait for US CPI on Wednesday.
Updated Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 01:11 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Fri 9 Oct 2026 · Oil and gold this morning as of around 00:40 GMT
Key takeaways
- 1The Houthis fired missiles at Riyadh’s international airport on Saturday (10 Oct), killing at least 12 people and injuring more than 300. Trump said the US may join Saudi Arabia in striking the Houthis
- 2On Sunday Trump announced Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking energy facilities. This morning WTI fell about 1.4% to around $90.55 and Brent to $103.35, but Zelensky is still waiting for details
- 3Spot gold is back above $4,200 this morning at around $4,205 after rising more than 1.4% on Friday. The dollar index (DXY) closed at 102.23, up for a 4th straight week
- 4No HIGH-impact data today. The US bond market is closed (Columbus Day) and Japan and Canada are on holiday. The highlight of the week is US CPI on Wed 14 Oct at 12:30 GMT
Today’s events, Mon 12 Oct 2026
- Japan holiday (Sports Day): Tokyo stock and bond markets closedThin USD/JPY liquidity during the Asian sessionLOW
- US Columbus Day: bond market closed (stock market open as normal)No US economic data · Canada closed for ThanksgivingLOW
- India CPI (Sep)Forecast 4.9% · Previous 4.82% (y/y)LOW
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Friday 9 Oct 2026 (New York) from Trading Economics, cross-checked with TradingView/FXStreet · ▲▼ = change over the week of 2–9 Oct · Gold closed around $4,189–4,194 depending on source · WTI is the futures settlement price
Middle East conflict flares, but a Russia–Ukraine energy deal pushes oil lower
The big event of the weekend was a Houthi missile attack from Yemen on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday 10 Oct. Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority said 12 people were killed and 309 injured, and the Houthis claimed another attack on Sunday. Trump called the attack ‘unacceptable’ and said the US may join Saudi Arabia in military action. Meanwhile, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported tankers attacked near Oman’s Sohar port and in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Brent crude above $100.
On the other side, Trump announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities, following a deal on Friday to let Russian diesel into the market. Zelensky said he was still waiting for details, and there were reports of continued attacks. This morning (around 00:40 GMT) WTI fell $1.30, or 1.4%, to $90.55 and Brent fell 1.3% to $103.35, according to Reuters. Spot gold, which rebounded more than 1.4% on Friday after UMich consumer sentiment came in at 46.3, below forecast, edged up further to around $4,205. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday just below 5.25%, and the US bond market is closed today.
“The ceasefire announcement eases some of the supply pressure, but there are still questions about whether the deal will actually happen and how long it will last, so the pullback in oil prices is likely to be limited.”
Tim Waterer, analyst at KCM Trade · via Reuters, 12 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold reclaims $4,200 ahead of the CPI test
Gold rebounded more than 1.4% on Friday from a daily low of $4,130 after UMich came in weaker than expected, closing around $4,190 for a weekly gain of about 1%, and edged up to around $4,205 this morning. FXStreet says gold needs a close above $4,200 to open the way to the 100-day moving average near $4,260; a break below $4,150 could see a pullback to $4,100. The main headwind is still the 10-year yield above 5.2%. See the latest gold analysis →
Euro stays below 1.1200 after 5 straight weekly losses
EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1196, down about 0.5% on the week for a 5th straight weekly loss, after touching 1.1161 on 5 Oct, its lowest in 17 months, on worries about French public finances and high oil prices. It opened around 1.1189 this morning. NordFX sees a 1.1120–1.1280 range this week; a hot US CPI print could push it below 1.1161.
Yen steady near 158 on a Japanese holiday
USD/JPY closed Friday at 158.23 and opened around 158.26 this morning while Japanese markets are closed for Sports Day. FXStreet says the 200-day moving average is still supporting buyers. First resistance is the 200-day line near 158.54, then 159.00, while support is the lower edge of the channel near 157.50. Japanese household spending for August, down 3.1% y/y, did not help the yen.
What to watch tonight
There is no US economic data today because of Columbus Day. The US bond market is closed but stocks trade as normal, and Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday, so liquidity is thinner than usual. The only release is India CPI around 10:30 GMT, plus speeches from Fed official Hammack and BoE policymakers Breeden and Mann. What really matters is Middle East news and progress on the Russia–Ukraine energy deal, which will set the direction for oil ahead of US September CPI on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT where markets expect 3.6% y/y, up from 3.4%, and core CPI at 2.5% from 2.4%. The number will show whether the Fed hikes at its 27–28 Oct meeting or waits until December. See the latest rates in the central bank rates table.
- US CPI inflation (Sep)Wed 12:30
- Australia employment (Sep)Thu 00:30
- UK GDP (Aug)Thu 06:00
- US retail sales + PPI (Sep)Thu 12:30
- Fed Chair Warsh speaks at an IMF event in BangkokFri, Asian morning
Our view
Weekend news is pulling markets in two directions. The attacks on Saudi Arabia and on oil tankers add to supply risk but the Russia–Ukraine energy deal pushed oil lower this morning. If oil keeps falling, pressure on inflation and yields will ease, which is positive for gold. But liquidity is thin today and prices can swing on headlines. The deciding event of the week is still CPI on Wednesday.
- 1Gold needs to hold $4,200Sustained closes above $4,200 open the way to $4,233–4,260; a break below $4,150 would weaken the recovery
- 2Watch the headlinesHouthi news, the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia–Ukraine energy deal can swing oil and currencies sharply on a thin-liquidity day
- 3Get ready for CPIWednesday at 12:30 GMT prices can jump sharply. Reduce position size and use a stop loss on every trade
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Sources (18)
- Federal Reserve – FOMC Calendar
- BLS – CPI Release Schedule
- Reuters via Global Banking & Finance – Oil (12 Oct)
- Al Jazeera – Houthi attack on Riyadh airport (11 Oct)
- Axios – Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire deal (11 Oct)
- NBC News – Zelensky responds to energy deal (11 Oct)
- The Nation – Oil and tanker attacks (12 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Commodities (12 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Currencies
- TradingView – DXY
- FXStreet – Gold (9 Oct)
- FXStreet – USD/JPY (9 Oct)
- Investopedia via Yahoo Finance – Markets 9 Oct
- Investing.com – Fed Rate Monitor (10 Oct)
- investingLive – Week ahead / Monday open (12 Oct)
- NordFX – Forecast 12–16 Oct
- Newsquawk – Weekly Calendar 12–16 Oct
- Rio Times – Calendar 12–16 Oct
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