The dollar (DXY) posted a fourth straight weekly gain to around 102.23 after the Fed minutes showed most officials see another hike before year-end as appropriate. The euro (EUR/USD) hit a 17-month low, while gold (XAUUSD) recovered about 1% to around $4,190 as US Treasury yields eased from their highest since 2002.
Updated Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 03:50 GMT · New York closing prices Fri 9 Oct 2026 vs Friday 2 Oct 2026 close
Key takeaways of the week
- 1The FOMC minutes (15–16 Sep), released late Wednesday 7 Oct (18:00 GMT), showed that most officials see another hike before year-end as appropriate Gold fell to $4,066, a 2-month low, before recovering
- 2Fed Governor Waller said the next hike need not come at consecutive meetings, so markets shifted bets toward December; odds of a 28 Oct hike fell to about 18–20%
- 3The US 10-year yield hit its highest since 2002 near 5.35% on Monday before easing after solid Treasury auctions and Trump saying he would not strike Iran before the 3 Nov midterms; it closed the week near 5.24–5.27%
- 4October preliminary UMich consumer sentiment came in at 46.3, below the 47.6 forecast, but 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%; Canadian employment fell by 68,300 in September
Weekly performance
Closing prices Friday 9 Oct 2026 (New York) vs Friday 2 Oct 2026 close · Sources: Trading Economics and Investrade/FXStreet (EUR/USD: Investrade 1.1199 · USD/JPY: Investrade 158.20 · Gold: Trading Economics 4,189 / USAGOLD ~4,183 · US10Y: Trading Economics 5.24% / Investrade 5.27%) · WTI is the futures settlement (Investrade 91.85 vs EnergyNow 91.11); Trading Economics shows 91.33, up about 0.2% · % rounded and may differ slightly by price source
What happened this week
The week opened with a global bond selloff. On Monday 5 Oct the US 10-year yield rose to around 5.35%, its highest since 2002, and the dollar (DXY) touched 102.53, its highest since April 2025. The euro fell to 1.1161, a 17-month low, on French fiscal worries, while September ISM services came in at 54.9 but prices paid jumped to 74.0, underlining that inflation is not over.
The highlight was the September FOMC minutes, released at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday 7 Oct. They showed most officials see another hike before year-end as appropriate and see inflation risks tilted to the upside. Gold fell to $4,066, a 2-month low. On the same day WTI crude jumped more than 4% after reports that the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare options to strike Iran, and Hurricane Isaias shut about 63% of Gulf of Mexico oil output.
Sentiment eased late in the week. Trump said he would not strike Iran before the 3 Nov midterms and that talks with Iran were “working”, US Treasury auctions went well and the 10-year yield fell about 5.7bp on Thursday, while Fed Governor Waller said the next hike need not come at consecutive meetings. Gold recovered to close the week near $4,190, up about 1%, and the dollar eased from its highs but still ended about 0.3% higher.
Key data and events of the week
- Mon 5 Oct · USISM Services (Sep) 54.9 Prices paid jumped to 74.0 · Read the 6 Oct news recap →
- Tue 6 Oct · USTrade balance (Aug): deficit of $105.6B Wider than expected · Read the 7 Oct news recap →
- Wed 7 Oct 18:00 GMT · USHIGHFOMC minutes (15–16 Sep) Most officials see another hike before year-end as appropriate · Read the 8 Oct news recap →
- Thu 8 Oct · Middle EastWTI jumps more than 4% on reports of Iran strike plans Before Trump said there would be no strike before the 3 Nov election · Read the breaking news →
- Fri 9 Oct · USHIGHUMich consumer sentiment (Oct preliminary) 46.3 Below the 47.6 forecast; 1-year inflation expectations 4.7% and 5-year 3.5% · Read the analysis →
- Fri 9 Oct · CanadaEmployment (Sep) fell by 68,300 Worse than the expected gain of 7,000; the Canadian dollar weakened and USD/CAD rose to an 18-month high
Daily gold: Gold price today 9 Oct →
Outlook for next week
The main theme remains whether the Fed hikes on 28 Oct or waits until December — next week’s decider is US September CPI on Wednesday 14 Oct at 12:30 GMT (previous 3.4% y/y), followed by retail sales, PPI and jobless claims at the same time on Thursday. If energy prices push inflation higher, markets may again lean toward a hike this month. See policy rates and next meeting dates in the central bank rates table
Outside the US, the RBA minutes (Tue 13 Oct) and China inflation (Wed 14 Oct) come early in the week, with Australian jobs and UK August GDP on Thursday. On Monday 12 Oct the US bond market is closed for Columbus Day and Japan and Canada are also on holiday, so liquidity may be thin early in the week.
Risks to watch: US–Iran headlines and Gulf of Mexico storms that can swing oil sharply, long-term yields still above 5.2% weighing on gold, and USD/JPY near 158, close to levels where Japan has warned about the currency. Next week also kicks off Q3 earnings from major US banks. This article is a market summary, not investment advice.
- US CPI inflation (Sep)Wed 14 Oct · previous 3.4% y/yHIGH
- Australia employment (Sep)Thu 15 Oct · previous +39.5K, unemployment 4.6%HIGH
- US retail sales (Sep)Thu 15 Oct · alongside jobless claimsHIGH
- US PPI producer prices (Sep)Thu 15 Oct · previous 5.4% y/yHIGH
Our view
The dollar is still supported by a Fed that keeps the door open to further hikes, but momentum has slowed after Waller signalled no rush. Next week, CPI is the key variable for whether the Fed hikes this month or waits until December.
- 1Be careful around Wednesday’s CPIAt 12:30 GMT gold and the dollar may jump sharply
- 2Watch the 10-year yieldIf it climbs back above 5.3%, gold could come under pressure again
- 3Set a stop loss on every orderIran headlines and storms can swing oil and currencies sharply
US CPI ahead next week — get cash back on every lot
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Sources (15)
- FXStreet – Dollar Index (9 Oct)
- FXStreet – Forex Today (9 Oct)
- Trading Economics – currencies
- Trading Economics – commodities
- Trading Economics – US10Y
- Investrade – Market Review (9 Oct)
- Rio Times – gold (9 Oct)
- EnergyNow – oil (2 Oct)
- The National – oil (9 Oct)
- Securities.io – FOMC Minutes (7 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Canada employment
- Talk Digital – Trading Desk Notes (9 Oct)
- Newsquawk – Week in Focus 12–16 Oct
- investingLive – Week ahead
- LiteFinance – calendar 12–18 Oct
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