Spot gold (XAUUSD) edged up to around $4,172 on Friday morning, gaining almost 1% after Fed Governor Waller signalled no need for back-to-back hikes and Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the midterm elections. Treasury yields and the dollar eased, but gold remains below $4,200 resistance. UMich sentiment is due at 14:00 GMT today.
Updated Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 02:45 GMT · Spot gold price as of early Asian trade 9 Oct 2026 (02:36 GMT)
Vs previous close · Latest session low $4,102.90, high $4,176.50 (Kitco) · Trading Economics shows a similar ~$4,170, up 0.90%
Today’s key gold takeaways
- 1Spot gold edged up to around $4,172 (+0.95%) this morning after dipping to around $4,103 on Thursday, near a two-month low, but it is still down about 3.4% over the month.
- 2Fed Governor Waller sees more hikes ahead but not back-to-back. CME FedWatch odds of a 28 Oct hike fell to 17.7% while December odds remain high at 81.3%.
- 3Resistance $4,200 and the 100-day moving average near $4,263; support at $4,100, $3,996 and the year’s low of $3,941
3 factors driving gold
- FedWatchFed in no rush to hike in October
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said further hikes are likely still needed, but not back-to-back. Markets cut the odds of a hike at the 28 Oct meeting to 17.7% per CME FedWatch, while still pricing about an 81.3% chance in December. St. Louis Fed President Musalem stressed that inflation remains high (summarized from FXStreet).
- 10YEasing yields and dollar help gold recover
The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 5.23% after touching 5.35%, a 24-year high, earlier in the week, and the dollar (DXY) slipped to around 102.04 (Trading Economics), lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Jobless claims came in at 197K, below the 200K forecast.
- IRANWar risk doesn’t always support gold
Trump said the US will not strike Iran before the 3 Nov midterm elections. FXStreet analysis notes gold has fallen about 20% since the war began on 28 Feb, as higher oil lifted inflation expectations and the odds of Fed hikes. If tensions return, gold may come under more pressure rather than gain support.
Support and resistance to watch
| $4,263 | R2 | 100-day moving average (SMA); next is the 50-day SMA near $4,332 |
| $4,200 | R1 | First resistance to clear to confirm a recovery |
| $4,172 | NOW | Latest price (Kitco, 02:36 GMT) |
| $4,100 | S1 | First support, near Thursday’s low around $4,103 |
| $3,996 | S2 | 29 Jul low |
| $3,941 | S3 | This year’s low |
If it rises / if it falls
Holds above $4,200
FXStreet said the reversal signal (bullish harami) still needs confirmation from a break above resistance. Above $4,200, the next levels are the 100-day moving average near $4,263 and the 50-day near $4,332. Supportive factors would be a weak UMich reading or easing inflation expectations.
Breaks below $4,100
Analysts say the downtrend is intact. Selling could test $4,000 and the 29 Jul low near $3,996, then the year’s low near $3,941. Downside risks are rising inflation expectations in the UMich survey or a renewed jump in yields.
Levels as of 8 Oct 2026, based on FXStreet analysis. Not trading advice.
Events on Fri 9 Oct 2026 that move gold (GMT)
- Canada employment change (Sep)Forecast +6.3K · Previous −41.7KMED
- UMich Sentiment, preliminary (Oct)Forecast 47.5 · Previous 48.1Watch 1-year inflation expectations (previous 4.6%). A rise could support the dollar and weigh on gold.Read the analysis →Due at 14:00 GMTHIGH
- Boston Fed President Collins speaksMarkets watch her view on a December hike.LOW
Gold bounces to $4,172 as the Fed holds off: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (8)
- Kitco – Spot Gold (9 Oct, 02:36 GMT)
- Trading Economics – Gold (9 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold gains ground to near $4,150 / CME FedWatch (8 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold gains on geopolitics as Fed hike bets shift to December (8 Oct)
- FXStreet – War should be bullish for Gold. Right now it’s capping it (8 Oct)
- Trading Economics – US 10Y / Dollar (9 Oct)
- U.S. Department of Labor – Weekly Claims
- Forex Factory – Calendar 9 Oct
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read this.
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