Trump said the US will not strike Iran before the 3 Nov midterm elections, so oil gave back part of its gains, while Fed Governor Waller said rate hikes do not have to come at consecutive meetings and markets pushed hike bets out to December. The dollar (DXY) eased slightly to around 102.1 and spot gold (XAUUSD) bounced from around $4,100. UMich is due tonight at 14:00 GMT.
Updated Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 00:45 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Thu 8 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1Trump posted that the US will not strike Iran before the 3 Nov midterm elections, so WTI crude, which had jumped more than 4%, pared its gains but still closed around $91. The New York Times reported that a 3-day strike plan has already been drawn up.
- 2Fed Governor Waller sees the need for further hikes, but not at consecutive meetings. CME FedWatch now prices a hike on 28 Oct at only ~18% and by December at ~81%.
- 3Jobless claims came in at 197K, below the 200K forecast · DXY eased 0.1% to around 102.12 and gold closed near $4,130
- 4Tonight, watch UMich Sentiment at 14:00 GMT, especially 1-year inflation expectations (previous 4.6%), plus Canadian jobs at 12:30 GMT.
Today’s events, Fri 9 Oct 2026
- Japan machine tool orders, preliminary (y/y)Previous 64.7%LOW
- Swiss consumer confidence (SECO)Forecast −32 · Previous −33LOW
- Italy industrial production (m/m)Forecast 0.0% · Previous 0.7%LOW
- MED
- UMich Sentiment, preliminary (Oct)Forecast 47.5 · Previous 48.1Watch 1-year inflation expectations (previous 4.6%)Read the analysis →Due tonight 14:00 GMTHIGH
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Thursday 8 Oct 2026 (New York) from Trading Economics · Gold from FXStreet (21:05 GMT) · ▲▼ vs previous day · WTI was up more than 4% intraday before paring gains after Trump’s remarks (FXStreet reported around $90.5–90.9 late in the session)
Trump steps back on Iran as Fed hike bets shift to December
On Thursday (8 Oct), President Trump posted on Truth Social that the US will not strike Iran before the 3 Nov midterm elections, saying talks with Tehran are going well while the blockade stays in place. WTI crude, which had jumped more than 4% on attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and on Storm Isaias disrupting Gulf of Mexico output, pared its gains. However, the New York Times reported that the Pentagon has already prepared a 3-day plan to strike Iran’s drone and missile depots and energy plants, so energy risk has not gone away.
On monetary policy, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said further rate hikes are likely still needed, but not at consecutive meetings. Markets read that as the 27–28 Oct meeting most likely holding rates at 3.75%–4.00%, while St. Louis Fed President Musalem stressed that inflation remains high. Weekly jobless claims fell to 197K, below the 200K forecast, according to the US Labor Department. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 5.22–5.24% after hitting 5.35% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, so the dollar (DXY) slipped 0.1% to around 102.12. US tech stocks were sold off after FXStreet reported that OpenAI’s full-year revenue is running about $20 billion below expectations.
“Further rate increases are likely still necessary, but they do not need to come at every meeting.”
Christopher Waller, Fed Governor · 8 Oct (paraphrased from FXStreet)
Asset by asset
Gold bounces from $4,100 but stays in a downtrend
Gold closed Thursday around $4,130, up about 0.5%, after a low near $4,103, helped by softer yields and Middle East risk. It edged up to around $4,140 in Asian trade this morning. FXStreet says the downtrend is intact: gold needs to reclaim $4,200 to open the way to the 100-day moving average near $4,263. The next supports are $4,100 and $3,996, the 29 Jul low. See the latest gold analysis →
Euro steady near 1.1213, close to its yearly low
The euro (EUR/USD) edged up 0.1% as the dollar softened but remains stuck around 1.12, weighed down by worries over France’s public finances and high oil prices. FXStreet notes the RSI is around 24, in oversold territory. First resistance is 1.1276, the 6 Oct high, with support at 1.1145 and 1.1050. The euro has lost about 3.7% over the past month.
Yen spikes twice before USD/JPY closes below 158
USD/JPY dropped toward 157.50 twice on Thursday, first on talk that Japanese authorities might intervene and then after Trump’s Iran remarks, before recovering to close around 157.98. FXStreet notes that every close since 1 Oct has been within about 20 pips of 158.00. The rate gap between the Fed and the BoJ (1.25%) is still wide at about 2.50–2.75%.
What to watch tonight
Earlier in the day there is second-tier data from Japan, Switzerland and Italy, then Canadian jobs at 12:30 GMT. The main event is the preliminary October UMich consumer sentiment index at 14:00 GMT, expected at 47.5 from 48.1. The key detail is 1-year inflation expectations, which stood at 4.6% last month. Boston Fed President Collins speaks at 20:00 GMT on Friday.
- US CPI Sep (14 Oct)Wed 12:30
- US retail sales + PPI (15 Oct)Thu 12:30
- UK GDP Aug (15 Oct)Thu 06:00
Our view
Markets got relief from two pressures at once: war risk has been pushed past the midterms, and the Fed has signalled it is in no hurry to hike in October. The bigger picture has not changed, though. Markets still price more than an 80% chance of a hike by December and the 10-year yield is still around 5.2%, so the dollar’s pullback should be limited, and gold stays in a downtrend until it holds above $4,200.
- 1Inflation expectations are the deciderIf tonight’s UMich shows 1-year inflation expectations still above 4.5%, markets may add back hike bets
- 2Iran news can still flipTrump has delayed strikes, but the plan is ready, so oil and gold can swing sharply on headlines
- 3Be careful around Friday’s dataLiquidity thins before the weekly close, so trade smaller and set a stop loss on every order
Fed delays hikes, UMich ahead: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (12)
- U.S. Department of Labor – Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims (8 Oct)
- University of Michigan – Surveys of Consumers
- FXStreet – Gold / Waller / Musalem / Claims (8 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold / CME FedWatch (8 Oct)
- FXStreet – Yen / Trump / 10-year yield (8 Oct)
- FXStreet – 3-day Iran strike plan (8 Oct)
- FXStreet – AUD / DXY / tech stocks (8 Oct)
- FXStreet – EUR/USD (8 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Currencies
- Trading Economics – Crude Oil
- Trading Economics – US 10Y
- Forex Factory – Calendar 9 Oct (forecasts)
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