Spot gold (XAUUSD) remained soft near $3,986 on Monday morning, still below $4,000 after touching $3,975 on Friday, a three-month low. Surging oil on Middle East tensions has revived inflation worries and expectations that the Fed could hike in December. This week the focus is the 27–28 Oct Fed meeting.
Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 02:49 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning, 26 Oct 2026 (around 02:40 GMT)
Vs Friday 23 Oct close · On Friday gold hit $3,975, a three-month low, and fell nearly 3.9% on the week (FXStreet)
Key points for gold today
- 1Spot gold is trading around $3,986 (−0.20%), below $4,000 after falling nearly 3.9% last week; it is down about 3.1% over one month.
- 2Brent crude is holding above $115 and WTI above $100 on Middle East tensions, fuelling worries about inflation and tighter central bank policy.
- 3CME FedWatch puts the odds of a Fed hike at the 27–28 Oct meeting below 10%, but the odds for December at about 75%
- 4Support at $3,975, $3,959 and $3,941 (the year’s low); resistance at $4,100 and $4,200 · No major US data today; the highlights are the Fed decision (Wed 18:00 GMT) and Core PCE (Thu 12:30 GMT).
3 factors driving gold
- OILMiddle East oil spike revives inflation worries
Brent rose above $115 and WTI above $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia launched air strikes on the Houthis in retaliation for missile fire on Riyadh, and two large tankers reportedly struck mines near the Strait of Hormuz (Business Today). FXStreet notes that high energy prices raise the chance of major central banks tightening policy, which weighs on non-yielding gold, and gold has lately been moving opposite to oil.
- FEDMarkets still bet on a December Fed hike
The Fed meets on 27–28 Oct. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25bp hike this time below 10%, so a hold is expected, but prices about a 75% chance of a December hike (FXStreet). Markets will watch the statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for how clearly a December hike is signalled.
- 10YYields ease and selling looks stretched
The US 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 5%, lowering the cost of holding gold (FXStreet). Saxo Bank and BCA Research see the selling as overdone, with hedge fund short positioning near extremes and central banks worldwide still buying gold (Mitrade). The dollar index (DXY) is near 101.64, down 0.17% (Trading Economics).
Key support and resistance levels
| $4,200 | R2 | Capped several rebounds in October; next is the 100-day SMA near $4,224 |
| $4,100 | R1 | First resistance per analysts |
| $3,986 | NOW | Latest price (Trading Economics, around 02:40 GMT) |
| $3,975 | S1 | Friday 23 Oct low, a three-month low |
| $3,959 | S2 | 17 Jul low |
| $3,941 | S3 | Year-to-date low |
Upside / downside
Reclaims $4,000 and breaks $4,100
The next levels are $4,200 and the 100-day SMA near $4,224. FXStreet notes the 4-hour RSI is in oversold territory, leaving room for a technical rebound. Catalysts would be easing oil or a Fed that stops short of clearly signalling a hike.
Breaks below $3,975
Selling could test $3,959 (17 Jul) and $3,941, the year’s low. FXStreet’s weekly outlook sees the next support near $3,800. Pressure would come from oil rising further or the Fed clearly signalling a December hike.
Levels as of 23 Oct 2026, based on FXStreet analysis. Not a trading recommendation.
Gold-moving events this week
- FOMC (Fed) decision · 28 OctA hold is expected. Watch the Fed Chair’s press conference for December hike signals; a hawkish tone could lift the dollar and yields and weigh on gold.HIGH
- US Q3 GDP (advance) and Core PCE (Sep) · 29 OctGDP is expected to grow about 3%, up from 2.2% in Q2. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.HIGH
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Sources (6)
- Trading Economics – Gold (26 Oct, around 02:40 GMT)
- FXStreet – Gold falls below $4,000 as Oil surge deepens weekly rout ahead of Fed (23 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold Weekly Forecast (23 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold Price Forecast (23 Oct)
- Mitrade – Gold Price Analysis (26 Oct)
- Business Today – Gold price today, 26 Oct 2026
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read it.
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