Forex news today: US producer prices (PPI) jumped 1.3% m/m in September, far above the 0.5% forecast, yet the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 10 basis points. The dollar index (DXY) slipped below 102, while gold (XAUUSD) rebounded about 1.5% to around $4,166. At 03:30 GMT today, markets await Fed Chair Warsh at the IMF meetings in Bangkok.
Updated Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 00:49 GMT · Prices as of the New York close Thu 15 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1US PPI rose 1.3% m/m in September, above the 0.5% forecast, and 6.3% y/y on energy prices. Retail sales rose 0.8% (forecast 0.3%), but the control group grew only 0.1%.
- 2The US 10-year yield fell about 10 bp to 5.09%. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.5% to close near 102.04, retreating from an 18-month high.
- 3Gold rebounded about 1.5% to close near $4,166, snapping a 3-day losing streak. The euro climbed back above 1.1200, while the Aussie fell 0.78% after Australian employment declined.
- 4Today at 03:30 GMT, Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the IMF meetings in Bangkok before the blackout period, followed by euro-zone CPI at 09:00 GMT and US industrial production at 13:15 GMT.
Today’s events · Fri 16 Oct 2026
- BoE Governor Bailey speaksDuring the IMF–World Bank meetingsLOW
- Fed Chair Warsh joins a panel at the IMF meetings in BangkokLast appearance before the blackout ahead of the 27–28 Oct Fed meetingMarkets watch whether he opens or closes the door to an October hikeMED
- Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaksDuring the IMF–World Bank meetingsLOW
- MED
- US import prices (Sep)Forecast 0.8% · previous 0.7% (m/m)LOW
- US industrial production (Sep)Forecast 0.4% · previous 0.0% (m/m)Capacity utilization forecast 76.5% from 76.3%MED
Market overview
Approximate closing prices for Thursday 15 October 2026 (New York) vs the previous day · FX pairs and DXY from Trading Economics, checked against Investrade and FXStreet · Gold (spot) from investingLive, checked against BabyPips (December gold futures closed at $4,170.10) · WTI from Investrade (investingLive reported $97.59)
Hot PPI but yields fall: dollar slips below 102, gold rebounds
On Thursday (15 Oct), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the producer price index (PPI) rose 1.3% m/m in September, well above the 0.5% forecast, and 6.3% y/y, as producer gasoline prices surged 20.3%. Core PPI excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.5%. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.8% (forecast 0.3%), but mostly due to a 6.4% jump at gas stations, while the control group used for GDP rose only 0.1%, below the 0.3% forecast. Jobless claims came in at 199K, close to expectations.
The dollar, yields and gold jumped on the data, then reversed within about 10 minutes, as markets saw Wednesday’s hot CPI as already priced in. The US 10-year yield fell about 10 bp to 5.09%, more than 20 bp below its post-CPI high. The dollar weakened against almost every currency, led by the Swiss franc. The odds of a Fed rate hike at the 28 Oct meeting stand around 27–29% per CME FedWatch, though markets still expect at least one more hike by year-end. Earlier that day, Asian stocks sold off hard, with the KOSPI closing down 7.57% on AI stock worries.
“The Fed likely still needs to raise rates further, but there is no need to rush a hike at the October meeting.”
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President · Reuters interview, 14 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold rebounds 1.5%, ends 3-day slide but stays below $4,200
Gold recovered about $61 to close near $4,166 after dropping to around $4,073 on Wednesday’s CPI, supported by lower yields and a softer dollar. It held near $4,165 in Asian trade this morning. FXStreet sees first resistance at $4,200 (the middle Bollinger band) and the 100-day moving average near $4,245, with support at $4,100 and $4,035. Short-term momentum stays bearish while price holds below both lines. See the latest gold analysis →
Euro climbs back above 1.1200 after a 17-month low
EUR/USD rose 0.51% to close near 1.1213, a weekly high above 1.1200, after falling toward 1.1100, a 17-month low, on Wednesday. ActionForex sees near-term resistance at 1.1276; a break would signal the short-term downtrend is over. Key support is 1.1111. Final euro-zone CPI is due at 09:00 GMT today, forecast at 3.8%, which supports the view that the ECB must stay hawkish.
Yen hovers near 158 with yields; watch 159 resistance
USD/JPY dipped toward 157.60 in Asia as yields fell, then closed near 158.11, down a slight 0.14%. BoJ Deputy Governor Koeda said the bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates. FXStreet sees 159.00 as key resistance, rejected on Wednesday, with near support at 157.50; a break would open the way to 156.36. Near 159–160, markets remain wary of intervention.
What to watch today
There is no high-impact data on today’s calendar, so the main event is Fed Chair Warsh, who joins a panel at the IMF–World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok at 03:30 GMT, his last remarks before the Fed’s blackout ahead of the rate meeting on 27–28 Oct. Final euro-zone CPI follows at 09:00 GMT, then US import prices at 12:30 GMT and US industrial production at 13:15 GMT.
- China Q3 GDP and September activity dataMon 19 Oct
- US flash manufacturing/services PMI (Oct)Fri 23 Oct 13:45 GMT
- UMich consumer sentiment, final (Oct)Fri 23 Oct 14:00 GMT
- Fed decision (FOMC)Wed 28 Oct 18:00 GMT
Our view
Hot PPI did not help the dollar because markets focused more on falling yields and worries over AI stocks. This suggests Fed hikes are already largely priced in, so Warsh’s remarks today will decide whether the dollar can get back above 102.
- 1Dollar needs to reclaim 102The break below 102.00 is a short-term sign of weakness. If Warsh does not sound hawkish, the euro and pound could extend gains.
- 2Gold still capped at $4,200The rebound has not changed the short-term trend; it needs to hold above $4,200 first. Key support is $4,100.
- 3Careful around 03:30 GMTPrices could swing sharply while Warsh speaks. Cut position size and set a stop-loss on every order.
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Sources (14)
- BLS – Producer Price Index Sep 2026 (15 Oct)
- U.S. Census Bureau – Advance Retail Sales Sep 2026 (15 Oct)
- investingLive – Americas wrap: PPI / yields / gold / WTI / FedWatch (15 Oct)
- Investrade – Market Review, closing prices 15 Oct
- BabyPips – US PPI and retail sales, Sep (15 Oct)
- BabyPips – Financial & Forex Market Recap (15 Oct)
- FXStreet – Forex Today: Warsh and US data (15 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold rebounds above $4,150, support and resistance (16 Oct)
- ActionForex – EUR/USD Daily Outlook (15 Oct)
- FXStreet via Mitrade – USD/JPY Price Forecast (15 Oct)
- investingLive – Daly: no urgency to hike in October (14 Oct)
- Nick Timiraos (WSJ) – Warsh’s schedule at the IMF meetings in Bangkok
- Trading Economics – Currencies / US and euro-zone calendar 16 Oct (forecasts)
- Kiplinger – Economic calendar 12–16 Oct
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