Spot gold (XAUUSD) rebounded to around $4,138 on Thursday morning after slumping below $4,100 on Wednesday to its lowest since early August, as US September CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7% and markets raised the odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct. Markets watch US retail sales and PPI at 12:30 GMT today.
Updated Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 03:00 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning 15 Oct 2026 (around 02:50 GMT)
Vs Wednesday 14 Oct close near $4,106 · Gold fell below $4,100 on Wednesday to its lowest since early August after CPI, while COMEX gold futures settled at $4,107.90, down $69.40 or nearly 2% (Trading Economics, Daily News)
Today’s key gold takeaways
- 1Spot gold rebounded to near $4,138 (+0.80%) this morning after closing Wednesday near $4,106, its lowest since early August; it is still down about 2.9% over the past month.
- 2US September CPI came in at 3.7% y/y, above the 3.6% forecast, and core CPI at 2.6% vs 2.5% expected. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct at about 32%, up from about 22% before the data.
- 3Resistance at $4,210 and the 100-day moving average near $4,250; support at $4,100, $4,035 and the $4,000 zone.
- 4US retail sales, PPI and weekly jobless claims are all due at 12:30 GMT today.
3 factors driving gold
- CPIHotter US inflation lifts Fed hike bets
September CPI rose 3.7% y/y from 3.4% in August, above the 3.6% forecast, while core CPI rose 2.6% y/y vs 2.5% expected. CME FedWatch prices about a 32% chance of a hike at the 28 Oct meeting and about 90% by December, and San Francisco Fed President Daly said further hikes are likely, so non-yielding gold was sold hard (FXStreet).
- 10YYields and the dollar ease from highs, letting gold rebound
Krungthai Bank said the US 10-year Treasury yield tested about 5.33% after CPI before easing to around 5.14%, while the dollar (DXY) swung in a 102.1–102.9 range before settling near 102.2 as markets trimmed October Fed hike odds from a peak of about 50%, helping COMEX gold recover to around $4,130.
- RiskUS stock slide and Middle East risk support safe-haven buying
Krungthai Bank said the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.9% on selling in AI and chip stocks, while Middle East uncertainty remains a risk for energy prices. TD Securities sees heavy resistance for gold near $4,200 but expects buying support in the $4,000–4,100 zone (FXStreet).
Support and resistance to watch
| $4,250 | R2 | 100-day moving average (SMA) |
| $4,210 | R1 | Daily Bollinger Band middle line, near the heavy $4,200 resistance flagged by TD Securities |
| $4,138 | NOW | Latest price (Trading Economics, around 02:50 GMT) |
| $4,100 | S1 | Top of the $4,000–4,100 buying zone seen by TD Securities |
| $4,035 | S2 | Daily lower Bollinger Band |
| $4,000 | S3 | Bottom of the buying zone and a psychological level |
If it rises / if it falls
Holds above $4,210
The next level is the 100-day moving average near $4,250, with the upper Bollinger Band near $4,390. A supportive factor would be softer-than-expected retail sales or PPI today, pushing yields and the dollar lower.
Breaks below $4,100 again
Selling could test the lower Bollinger Band near $4,035 and the $4,000 zone. RSI (14) is about 38.7, not yet oversold. The downside risk is a hot PPI following CPI, pushing markets to raise the odds of a Fed hike this month.
Levels as of 15 Oct 2026, based on FXStreet and TD Securities analysis. Not trading advice.
Today’s events that move gold (GMT)
- US retail sales (Sep)Forecast +0.3% m/m vs +1.1% (revised). A strong print could lift the dollar and yields again and weigh on gold.HIGH
- US PPI (Sep)Forecast +0.5% m/m vs +0.4% · Core PPI forecast +0.3% vs +0.2%HIGH
- US initial jobless claimsForecast about 195K vs 197K the previous weekMED
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Sources (8)
- Trading Economics – Gold (15 Oct, around 02:50 GMT)
- FXStreet – Gold slumps to near $4,100 as hotter US CPI increases Fed rate hike odds (15 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold Price Forecast (14 Oct)
- Mahachon – Krungthai Bank market wrap 15 Oct (Yield, DXY, US stocks)
- BLS – Consumer Price Index
- Admirals – US Retail Sales/PPI preview 15 Oct
- Admirals – US initial jobless claims preview 15 Oct
- Daily News – Gold prices and COMEX (15 Oct)
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read this.
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