Forex news today: US consumer prices (CPI) for September came in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast, driven by a jump in gasoline prices. The dollar (DXY) rose to close at 102.55, while gold (XAUUSD) fell about 1.3% to around $4,105. Tonight at 12:30 GMT, markets turn to US retail sales and PPI.
Updated Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 01:28 GMT · Prices as of New York close Wed 14 Oct 2026
Key points
- 1US CPI Sep came in at 3.7% y/y, above the 3.6% forecast; core CPI 2.6%, above the 2.5% forecast. Gasoline rose 9.1% in a single month
- 2The odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct rose to about 35–42% from about 22% before the data; by December about 91–94%, according to CME FedWatch
- 3The dollar (DXY) closed at 102.55 after touching 102.79, its highest since April 2025. Gold closed near $4,105 after dipping below $4,100 intraday
- 4Tonight at 12:30 GMT, watch US retail sales, PPI and jobless claims, all released at the same time
Today’s events · Thu 15 Oct 2026
- Australia employment (Sep)Released −39.3K (forecast +20K) · Unemployment 4.7%Jobs fell unexpectedly; markets trimmed bets on further RBA hikesMED
- Fed Governor Bowman speaksWatch for her view on inflation after CPILOW
- UK GDP (Aug)Forecast −0.1% · Previous 0.4% (m/m)MED
- MED
- MED
- US initial jobless claimsForecast 200K · Previous 197KLOW
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (Oct)Forecast 28.4 · Previous 37.8LOW
- Empire State index (Oct)Forecast 10.3 · Previous 7.6LOW
- US business inventories (Aug)Forecast 0.4% · Previous 0.8%LOW
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Wednesday 14 October 2026 (New York) · DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY from InfoQuest (New York money market report) · Gold and WTI from investingLive, checked against the morning market wrap of 15 Oct · AUD/USD from Trading Economics, checked against BabyPips
Hot CPI lifts the dollar, gold dips below $4,100 intraday
On Wednesday evening (14 Oct), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that consumer prices rose 3.7% y/y in September, accelerating from 3.4% and above the 3.6% forecast. Prices rose 0.6% m/m, in line with expectations. The main driver was gasoline, which jumped 9.1% in a single month and accounted for more than half of the overall increase; energy prices were up 20.4% y/y. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% m/m (forecast 0.2%) and 2.6% y/y (forecast 2.5%), with shelter up 0.4%. Read more in our US September CPI analysis
Markets immediately priced in more Fed rate hikes. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of a hike at the 27–28 Oct meeting briefly rose above 40% before easing to about 35%, while the odds of a hike by December rose above 90%. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.33% before closing at 5.19%, down about 2bp. The Fed’s Beige Book, released the same evening, said all 12 districts reported rising prices and that high oil prices affected every district, while the economy grew in 9 of 12 districts.
“This month’s inflation numbers are disappointing, and if they stay this bad for several more months it would be unacceptable.”
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President · 14 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold dips below $4,100 intraday, lowest since early August
Gold fell below $4,100 intraday after the CPI release, its lowest since early August, before closing near $4,105, down about 1.3%, as the dollar strengthened and markets added to Fed hike bets. StoneX says last week’s low near $4,066 is key support; a break would open the way to $4,000. Resistance is at $4,135 and the $4,164–4,170 zone. Latest gold analysis →
Euro slides to around 1.1100, lowest since May 2025
EUR/USD fell close to 1.1100 after the US CPI release, a 17-month low, before recovering to close near 1.1153. FXStreet notes the RSI is in oversold territory, which could slow the selling. In Europe, ECB policymaker Wunsch thinks further rate hikes are likely, while concerns over France’s budget continue to weigh on the euro. Final eurozone CPI is due on Friday.
Yen trades in a tight range near 158 despite the strong dollar
USD/JPY rose to near 158.90 after CPI but closed near 158.20, little changed, as the US 10-year yield pulled back late in the session. FXStreet reports the pair slipped below 158.00 in Asian trading this morning, while news reports suggest the BoJ is in no hurry to hike again this month. Levels near 159 remain a zone where markets are wary of intervention.
What to watch today
UK GDP for August is due earlier in the day. The main event is US retail sales and PPI, released together at 12:30 GMT. Markets expect September retail sales to rise 0.3%, slowing from 1.2%, and PPI to rise 0.5% from 0.4% after the hot CPI. These numbers will help decide whether the Fed hikes rates at the 28 Oct meeting or waits until December.
- Eurozone final CPI (Sep)Fri 09:00
- US industrial production (Sep)Fri 13:15
- Fed Chair Warsh in conversation with Georgieva at the IMF meetings in BangkokFri 16 Oct
Our view
With both headline and core CPI above forecast, a Fed rate hike this year is almost a done deal. The only question is whether it comes in October or December, so the dollar keeps the upper hand. But the 10-year yield closing lower than the previous day suggests markets are not fully convinced the Fed will rush to hike in October. Tonight’s retail sales and PPI and Warsh’s remarks on Friday will set the direction.
- 1The dollar keeps the upper handAs long as markets price more than 90% odds of a hike by December, rebounds in the euro and gold may be limited
- 2Gold needs to hold $4,066A break of last week’s low puts $4,000 next; on rebounds, resistance is near $4,135
- 3Be careful around 12:30 GMTSeveral US releases come out at once and prices can swing hard; reduce position size and use a stop loss on every trade
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Sources (12)
- BLS – Consumer Price Index, Sep 2026 (14 Oct)
- Federal Reserve – Beige Book (14 Oct)
- IMF – 2026 Annual Meetings schedule, Bangkok
- InfoQuest – New York money market / FedWatch (14 Oct)
- FXStreet – US CPI vs. expectations (14 Oct)
- FXStreet – EUR/USD at 17-month low (14 Oct)
- investingLive – Americas market wrap: gold, oil, yields (14 Oct)
- BabyPips – Financial & Forex Market Recap (14 Oct)
- StoneX – Gold support and resistance (14 Oct)
- Investing.com (Reuters) – Australia employment, Sep (15 Oct)
- Trading Economics – US/UK calendar 15 Oct (forecasts)
- Yahoo Finance – CME FedWatch after CPI (14 Oct)
Risk warning: Trading Forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
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