Spot gold (XAUUSD) edged up to around $4,172 on Monday morning after the dollar (DXY) posted its first weekly loss in five weeks and the US 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.08%. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at its 28 Oct meeting, but gold remains capped below the Bollinger middle line near $4,185.
Updated Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 02:45 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning 19 Oct 2026 (around 02:35 GMT)
Vs Friday 16 Oct close · FXStreet reported gold rising to around $4,175 at the Asian open, while COMEX gold settled Friday at $4,181.10, up $11 (Daily News)
Today’s key gold takeaways
- 1Spot gold is near $4,172 (+0.14%) this morning, according to Trading Economics, but is still down about 3.9% over the past month and about 4.3% over the past year.
- 2CME FedWatch prices about an 83% chance the Fed holds on 28 Oct after Fed Chair Warsh gave no rate signal, though markets still see about a 91.8% chance of a December hike.
- 3First resistance at $4,185 (Bollinger middle line), then $4,240 (100-day moving average); support at $4,054 and $4,000.
- 4The US calendar is light today, with the NAHB index at 14:00 GMT; Brent crude holding near $110 and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain key factors to watch.
3 factors driving gold
- FEDWarsh gives no guidance; markets expect an October Fed hold
After the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Fed Chair Warsh expressed confidence in the US economy but gave no signal on rates. TTB, citing CME FedWatch, said markets price about an 83% chance the Fed holds at its 28 Oct meeting, easing pressure on gold, although FXStreet said markets still price about a 91.8% chance of a December hike.
- 10YLower yields and a weaker dollar support gold
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 5.085% and the dollar (DXY) weakened to about 101.87 on Friday (SCB), even though US September PPI beat forecasts. FXStreet said worries about growth in AI businesses outweighed inflation pressure, pushing yields lower and supporting non-yielding gold.
- OILOil near $110 risks weighing via inflation
Brent crude settled Friday at $109.86 a barrel on Middle East supply worries and attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz (SCB). FXStreet said US–Iran tensions support safe-haven buying, but if oil pushes inflation higher, markets could expect a tighter Fed, which would weigh on gold.
Support and resistance to watch
| $4,315 | R3 | Daily upper Bollinger Band |
| $4,240 | R2 | 100-day moving average (SMA) |
| $4,185 | R1 | Bollinger middle line · a close above it would be the first sign of recovery |
| $4,172 | NOW | Latest price (Trading Economics, around 02:35 GMT) |
| $4,054 | S1 | Daily lower Bollinger Band ($4,053.65) |
| $4,000 | S2 | Psychological level near the late July–early August lows (16 Oct analysis) |
If it rises / if it falls
Closes above $4,185
FXStreet sees this as the first sign that prices are stabilising. The next levels are the 100-day moving average near $4,240 and the upper Bollinger Band near $4,315. Supportive factors would be further declines in yields and a weaker dollar.
Sold back below $4,150
Prices could test the lower Bollinger Band near $4,054, then the $4,000 psychological level. Analysts note gold is still below key moving averages, so the short-term picture remains bearish. Downside risks are oil pushing inflation higher or a rebound in yields.
Levels as of 19 Oct 2026, based on FXStreet analysis ($4,000 and $4,150 from the 16 Oct analysis). Not trading advice.
Today’s events that move gold (GMT)
- Canada CPI (Sep)Forecast 0.2% m/m vs −0.1%; mainly affects the Canadian dollarMED
- NAHB housing market index (Oct)Forecast 31 vs 32. With a light US calendar, gold may track Middle East news and yields instead.LOW
- China 1-year / 5-year LPRForecast unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%MED
Gold holds $4,170, eyes $4,185: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (7)
- Trading Economics – Gold (19 Oct, around 02:35 GMT)
- FXStreet – Gold gains ground above $4,150 as Fed avoids policy signals (19 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD nearing $4,200 (16 Oct)
- Mitihoon – TTB: CME FedWatch (19 Oct)
- Mitihoon – SCB: DXY, Yield, oil (19 Oct)
- Forex Factory – Calendar 19 Oct
- Daily News – Gold prices and COMEX (19 Oct)
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes, not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read this.
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