Forex news today: The dollar index (DXY) closed last week around 101.78, down about 0.4%, its first weekly loss in 5 weeks after Fed Chair Warsh gave no signal of an October rate hike. WTI crude still holds above $100, while gold (XAUUSD) is steady around $4,166. Markets await China’s Q3 GDP this morning at 02:00 GMT and Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT.
Updated Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 00:37 GMT · Prices as of New York close Fri 16 Oct 2026
Key takeaways
- 1Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Friday (16 Oct) and gave no guidance on the 27–28 Oct meeting. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at about 85%.
- 2The dollar (DXY) closed around 101.78 down about 0.4% on the week. EUR/USD closed at 1.1237, and GBP rose to around 1.3328, a 3-week high.
- 3WTI crude closed at $101.41 up about 10.4% on the week. Over the weekend Iran called the US response on reopening the Strait of Hormuz “insufficient”, so supply risk remains high.
- 4Today watch China Q3 GDP at 02:00 GMT (forecast 4.4%) and Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT. The Fed has entered its pre-meeting blackout period.
Today’s events · Mon 19 Oct 2026
- China Q3 GDP + retail sales/industrial output (Sep)Forecast 4.4% · previous 4.3% (y/y)Retail sales forecast 0.5% · industrial output forecast 5.4% (y/y)Due this morning 02:00 GMTHIGH
- Japan Tertiary Industry IndexForecast −0.3% · previous 0.4% (m/m)LOW
- Canada CPI (Sep)Forecast 0.2% · previous −0.1% (m/m)Previous y/y 3.0% · ahead of BoC meeting on 28 OctDue today 12:30 GMTHIGH
- US NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct)Forecast 31 · previous 32LOW
- BoC Business Outlook SurveyQuarterly · no forecastLOW
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Friday 16 Oct 2026 (New York) vs Thursday 15 Oct close · FX pairs and DXY from Trading Economics, cross-checked with FXStreet and TradingView (DXY 101.78) · Spot gold $4,166.39, down 0.11%, from Trading Economics · WTI Nov contract (EnergyNow / TokenPost) · Indicative Monday opening prices: EUR/USD around 1.1191 · USD/JPY 158.03 · AUD/USD 0.6959 (investingLive)
Warsh gives no guidance, dollar ends week lower, but oil above $100 still weighs
On Friday (16 Oct) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took part in a panel at the IMF–World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok and gave no signal on whether the 27–28 Oct meeting will raise interest rates. Markets scaled back bets on an October hike: CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at about 85%, while leaving the door open to a December hike. The dollar index (DXY) fell to around 101.70, a 2-week low, and closed around 101.78 down about 0.4% on the week, its first weekly loss in 5 weeks. Reuters reported that worries over returns on AI investment spilling into credit markets also weighed on the dollar, while the US 10-year Yield returned to around 5.1%.
The oil market remains the main risk. WTI closed Friday at $101.41 and Brent at $109.86, the highest since May. Over the weekend Iran said the US response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was “insufficient”, the Houthis named Saudi Aramco facilities as targets, and the IEA accelerated releases of emergency oil stocks. In Europe, large protests in France weighed on the euro, and EUR/USD opened weaker this morning around 1.1191. Gold closed Friday steady around $4,166, as high oil keeps markets worried about inflation and a possible Fed hike in December.
“The Fed no longer signals in advance how its next meeting will be decided”
Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair · IMF–World Bank meetings, Bangkok, 16 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Gold steady near $4,166, capped by moving-average resistance
Gold closed Friday around $4,166, down a slight 0.11% and about 0.5% lower on the week despite the weaker dollar, as oil above $100 keeps markets thinking the Fed may hike by December. FXStreet sees resistance at $4,190–4,240, the 20- and 100-day moving averages, with first support at $4,100 and the 14 Oct low at $4,073. Latest gold analysis →
Euro rebounds from 17-month low but opens weaker this morning
EUR/USD closed Friday around 1.1237, up about 0.4% on the week after hitting a low near 1.1111, but opened weaker this morning around 1.1191 on news of protests in France. ActionForex says a break above 1.1276 would signal the short-term downtrend is over and open the way to the 55-day EMA near 1.1410, while a break below 1.1111 would extend the decline.
Yen holds around 158 in a tight range ahead of BoJ at month-end
USD/JPY closed Friday around 158.04, little changed, after trading in a 156.36–159.02 range during the week. BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated the risk that underlying inflation could overshoot the 2% target. ActionForex is neutral: a break above 159.02 would open the way to 160.38, while a break below 156.36 could see a deeper fall. Near 160, markets remain wary of FX intervention.
What to watch today
There is no high-impact US data today. First up is China Q3 GDP at 02:00 GMT, expected at 4.4% y/y from 4.3%, along with September retail sales and industrial output, which matter for the Aussie dollar (AUD/USD) and commodities. Next is Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT, ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting on 28 Oct. See rates and meeting dates for all central banks in the central bank rates table
- China LPR rate decisionTue 01:00
- UK CPI (Sep)Wed 06:00
- Japan CPI (Sep)Thu 23:30
- US flash PMI (Oct)Fri 13:45
Our view
The dollar is losing momentum after Warsh gave no guidance, but oil above $100 means inflation and Yields could turn higher again. With the Fed in blackout and little US data this week, markets will follow oil, Middle East headlines, China data and inflation figures elsewhere ahead of the big central bank meetings at month-end.
- 1Watch oil above $100If Brent breaks above $110, inflation would pressure the Fed and push Yields higher again, and the dollar could recover.
- 2Gold still capped below $4,240Gold needs to hold above the $4,190–4,240 moving-average zone first; key support is $4,100.
- 3Be careful at 02:00 GMTChina GDP could swing the Aussie and gold. Reduce position size and set a stop-loss on every order.
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Sources (14)
- Federal Reserve – Speeches (Warsh, 16 Oct)
- FXStreet – Forex Today: Dollar weakens as Warsh gives no guidance (16 Oct)
- Reuters via MarketScreener – Dollar set for weekly loss / FedWatch (16 Oct)
- Capital Street FX – Daily Forex Report / Warsh (16 Oct)
- FinanceFeeds – Gold closing price and support/resistance (17 Oct)
- investingLive – Monday open indicative prices, 19 Oct
- The Edge Briefing – Weekend edition, 18 Oct
- ActionForex – EUR/USD Weekly Outlook (17 Oct)
- ActionForex – USD/JPY Weekly Outlook (17 Oct)
- Trading Economics – Calendar and forecasts, 19 Oct
- Forex Factory – Calendar, 19 Oct
- LiteFinance – Economic calendar 19–25 Oct
- TradingView – DXY
- 1TRADER – Weekly Forex Recap 12–16 Oct
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