The dollar (DXY) closed about 0.4% lower near 101.78, its first weekly loss in five weeks, even though US September CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 5.09% on selling in tech and Asian stocks. The euro (EUR/USD) and sterling recovered, the yen (USD/JPY) held near 158, WTI crude jumped about 10% to close above $101, while spot gold (XAUUSD) slipped about 0.5% to near $4,167
Updated Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 02:20 GMT · New York closing prices Fri 16 Oct 2026 vs the close on Fri 9 Oct 2026
Key takeaways of the week
- 1US September CPI came in at 3.7% y/y, above the 3.6% forecast, with core CPI at 2.6% (forecast 2.5%), followed by PPI jumping 1.3% m/m (forecast 0.5%) and 6.3% y/y, the fastest in about four and a half years
- 2Despite hot inflation, the 10-year yield fell from around 5.24% to about 5.09% after South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 8%, triggering a circuit breaker, and AI-related tech stocks were sold off, pushing the dollar below 102 for its first weekly loss in five weeks
- 3WTI crude closed Friday at $101.41, up about 10.4% on the week, on missiles targeting Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu export terminal, attacks on Russian refineries and an 8.6 million barrel draw in US crude inventories
- 4Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the IMF–World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok without signalling the rate path; CME FedWatch puts the odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct at about 28% but still assigns a high probability to a hike by December
Weekly performance
Closing prices Fri 16 Oct 2026 (New York) vs the close on Fri 9 Oct 2026 · FX and DXY from Trading Economics, checked against FXStreet (DXY near 101.70 · EUR/USD near 1.1250 · GBP/USD near 1.3320 · USD/JPY below 158 · AUD/USD near 0.6950) · Gold: BabyPips ~$4,167 / Reuters down about 0.5% on the week · WTI is the November contract close (EnergyNow and TokenPost $101.41 +10.4%); BabyPips cites a gain of about 8% based on the contract it uses · US10Y: BabyPips ~5.09% / Nocta 5.086% · % rounded; may differ slightly by price source
What happened this week
The week started with a familiar picture. On Monday 12 Oct the US bond market was closed for Columbus Day; gold climbed to near $4,214 as oil eased on reports of a Russia–Ukraine energy deal, before pulling back as oil recovered. On Tuesday the dollar (DXY) held near an 18-month high after New York Fed President Williams said one more rate hike this year may be needed, leaving CPI as the deciding factor.
On Wednesday 14 Oct, September CPI came in at 3.7% y/y, above the 3.6% forecast, driven mainly by gasoline prices, while core CPI rose to 2.6%. The dollar and yields jumped immediately; gold fell about $60 within 15 minutes to a low near $4,074 before recovering to close near $4,105. On Thursday PPI surged 1.3% m/m, far above expectations, while retail sales rose 0.8%, beating the 0.3% forecast, though the control group gained only 0.1%.
The turning point came from equities. On Thursday 15 Oct, South Korea’s KOSPI plunged about 8%, triggering a circuit breaker, the Nikkei fell about 5% and AI-related tech stocks kept selling off. Money flowed into US Treasuries, sending the 10-year yield sharply lower to around 5.09%; the dollar broke below 102 and gold rebounded above $4,150. On Friday Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok without signalling on rates; DXY slid further to near 101.70, a two-week low, and ended the week down about 0.4%, its first weekly loss in five weeks.
Oil was the hottest story of the week. A Saudi-led coalition intercepted missiles aimed at the Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea, Ukraine struck Russia’s Ryazan refinery, and US crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels, more than expected. Even though the IEA announced an emergency stock release, WTI still closed Friday at $101.41, up about 10.4% on the week, while Brent closed at $109.86.
Key data and events of the week
- Tue 13 Oct · USWilliams sees one more rate hike this year Dollar eases from near an 18-month high · Forex news →
- Wed 14 Oct · USHIGHCPI (Sep) 3.7% y/y Above the 3.6% forecast, core CPI 2.6% (forecast 2.5%); gold fell to near $4,074 · Forex news →
- Thu 15 Oct · AustraliaHIGHEmployment (Sep) fell by 39,300 Worse than the expected gain of 19,600; unemployment rate 4.7%; the Aussie weakened against all majors
- Thu 15 Oct · South KoreaKOSPI plunges about 8%, triggering a circuit breaker Nikkei down about 5%, money flows into bonds · Read the breaking news →
- Thu 15 Oct · USHIGHPPI (Sep) +1.3% m/m Forecast 0.5%; 6.3% y/y; retail sales +0.8% (forecast 0.3%), yet yields fell · Read Forex news 16 Oct →
- Fri 16 Oct · USWarsh gives no signal on the rate path Spoke at the IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok; DXY fell to near 101.70, a two-week low
- Fri 16 Oct · Middle EastWTI closes at $101.41, up 3.5% in a single day Brent $109.86 after missiles targeted Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port
Daily gold: Gold price today 16 Oct → · Breaking: Indonesian stocks plunge 11% →
Outlook for next week
The main theme remains whether the Fed hikes at its 27–28 Oct meeting or waits until December. The decision is due at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday 28 Oct. From this weekend Fed officials enter their blackout period, so there will be almost no Fed commentary next week. US data is lighter: housing starts, jobless claims and the flash October PMIs on Friday. See every central bank’s rate and meeting dates in the central bank rates table
Outside the US there is inflation data from several countries, starting with China’s Q3 GDP on Monday morning (previous 4.3% y/y) and Canadian CPI the same day ahead of the BoC meeting on 28 Oct. UK CPI is due on Wednesday (previous 3.1%), Japanese CPI comes ahead of the BoJ meeting on 29–30 Oct, and the eurozone and UK flash PMIs are due on Friday.
Risks to watch: oil holding above $100 could push inflation higher and force a more hawkish Fed; volatility in tech and Asian stocks, which just drove yields sharply lower; and USD/JPY holding near 158, close to the zone where Japan has previously warned about the currency. Europe and the UK end daylight saving time on 25 Oct, so European release times in GMT will be one hour later from the following week. This article is a market summary, not investment advice.
- China Q3 GDP + activity data (Sep)Mon 19 Oct · Previous 4.3% y/yHIGH
- Canada CPI (Sep)Mon 19 Oct · Ahead of the BoC meeting on 28 OctHIGH
- UK CPI (Sep)Wed 21 Oct · Previous 3.1% y/yHIGH
- Japan CPI (Sep)Thu 22 Oct · Ahead of the BoJ meeting on 29–30 OctHIGH
- Eurozone flash PMI (Oct)Fri 23 Oct · Followed by UK PMI at 08:30 GMTHIGH
- US flash PMI (Oct)Fri 23 Oct · S&P Global manufacturing and servicesHIGH
Our view
The dollar is losing momentum even though US inflation ran hotter than expected, because the equity sell-off pushed money into bonds and pulled yields lower. Next week has little US news and the Fed is in its blackout, so markets will move with oil prices, Middle East headlines and inflation data from other countries before the big central bank meetings at the end of the month.
- 1Watch oil above $100If it holds, inflation will pressure the Fed and push yields back up
- 2Watch the 10-year yield near 5.1%A move back above 5.2% could put gold under pressure again
- 3Set a stop loss on every orderAsian stocks and war headlines are causing sharp swings outside news releases
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Sources (13)
- BabyPips – Weekly Recap (16 Oct)
- FXStreet – Forex Today (16 Oct)
- FXStreet – Week ahead (16 Oct)
- Bloomberg – Dollar weekly (16 Oct)
- Reuters via Business Recorder – Gold (16 Oct)
- EnergyNow – Oil (16 Oct)
- TokenPost – Oil close (16 Oct)
- Nocta – Daily Brief (16 Oct)
- EBC – Dollar index after PPI
- Trading Economics – Dollar
- Trading Economics – US10Y
- Newsquawk – Week in Focus 19–23 Oct
- LiteFinance – Calendar 19–25 Oct
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